PI: Dr. Tom Smith, Research Ecologist, Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS

Filed Under: Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate Sciences

Abstract: This project is being done for the South Atlantic LCC. The LCC covers the area from Tallahassee to Jacksonville in Florida and then northward including most of Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Dynamically down-scaled climate model data from the USGS project "A Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts," La Florida for short will be compared to statistically down-scaled datasets from several sources. Cooperating Investigators include Drs. Vasu Misra and Lydia Stephanova from COAPS, and Dr. Ryan Boyles, State Climatologist for North Carolina.

These projects reflect the cross-disciplinary research done by The Florida Climate Institute.

Click on the icons below to explore the Florida Climate Institute projects or list  projects.

Ecosystems			Natural Resources						Human Resources
Agriculture	Coastal Ecosystems	Terrestrial Ecosystems		Climate Sciences	Water	Energy	Land		Human Dimensions	Extension	Education

The Florida Climate Institute is involved in a number of interdisciplinary projects related to climate research, education and outreach activities. Examples of FCI projects include using climate information for agricultural risk reduction; creating cooperatives for climate change education; and using climate forecasts to reduce risks in public water supply. 

To submit or update a project, email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: J.Baez, N. Breuer, J. M. Fernandes, C. A. Forcelini, C. Fraisse, W. Pavan

Institutions: Universidad Catolica Nuestra Senora de la Asuncion (Paraguay); University of Florida; University of Miami; Universidade de Passo Fundo (Brazil)

Funding Agency: Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)

Start: April 2008    End: March 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension

Abstract: Climate variability caused by El Niño brings additional risk for soybean farmers in Southern Brazil and Eastern Paraguay. The main focus of this research project is to learn the needs of agricultural producers as related to climate information and forecast, to investigate the potential impacts of climate variability on crop production, more specifically soybean production, and to implement capacity building activities to introduce the application of crop model outcomes into stakeholders' decision making process. This project is developing a seasonal climate forecast system for use by producers and policy makers aimed at reducing the risks that farmers face with each season's planting. Researchers conducted surveys in several Brazilian and Paraguayan farmer cooperatives on members' knowledge of and attitudes to inter-seasonal climate variability and their expectations regarding climate forecasts. The results show that farmers' knowledge about the effects of El Niño is variable, which affects their willingness to apply climate forecasts for adapting their management practices. The research team found that soybean producers are very interested in understanding the effects of climate variability on crop yields. They were equally enthusiastic about the possibility of co-developing a decision support system available on the Internet to help them make better decisions about farm management; for example, if they knew with a high degree of certainty that La Niña year was coming, adjustments in planting dates, fertilization rates, and land preparation, might reduce some of the risks they face. The ability to adapt farm management upon seasonal climate forecasting depends on several factors, such as the flexibility and willingness of the farmers, the timing and accuracy of the forecast, and the effectiveness of the communication process. Climate information only has value when there is a potential response and a clearly defined benefit, once the information is applied.

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, W. Porter

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: MacArthur Foundation

Start: August 2010    End: July 2014

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: C. Fraisse

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: Florida Strawberry Growers Association

Start: September 2006    End: August 2009

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, N.A. Peres

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)

Start: August 2010    End: July 2014

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, N.E. Breuer, J.O. Paz

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NOAA/SARP

Start: July 2008    End: June 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension

Abstract: Drought conditions are a frequent occurrence in the Southeast. The severe drought of 2007 created a pasture and hay shortage throughout the region, greatly impacting farm finances and profit. In the Coastal Plain of Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the Northeast Central and Southwest regions of Florida, pasture conditions were mostly very poor and hay supply was exhausted at the initiation of summer. Most cattlemen were forced to feed supplemental hay and grain. Hay farmers are also experiencing high fertilizer prices, with little chance to recover input costs. Many producers, as part of the recommended practices to cope with drought, were weaning early or selling off some animals to decrease their stocking rate, with average weight at sale down in many areas. According to the University of Georgia Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development, drought conditions that have persisted throughout 2007 have caused losses of $787.2 million in production losses to Georgia's agricultural sector. Pasture losses are $264.7 million of grass for grazing. Hay losses of $83.8 million are 59% of normal production value. The main objective of this research project is to better understand the decision making process of forage producers as related to drought and develop a decision support system specifically designed to help forage producers cope and adapt to drought conditions in the southeastern USA. A simple, yet reliable water deficit index will be monitored and forecast based on weather data collected by weather networks in Florida and Georgia, short term weather forecast provided by the NWS, and ENSO phases. The system will also include suggested management options for current and anticipated drought conditions and developed with intensive stakeholder participation. Training workshops and outreach events will be conducted to train extension faculty and producers in the use of tools developed under this project. Venues will include field days, extension staff training, and regional meetings of producer associations.

Contact Person: Ingram, Keith

Collaborators: C.W. Fraisse, K. T. Ingram, J.W. Jones, K. Morgan

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NOAA / OGP / TRACS

Start: September 2007    End: June 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension, Water

Contact Person: Jones, James W.

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, K. T.Ingram, J.W.Jones

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NOAA/OGP / RISA

Start: July 2009    End: June 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension, Water

Abstract: The Southeastern Climate Consortium (SECC) conducts research to reduce climate and weather risks to agriculture and natural resources in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, and is transferring existing and developing new agricultural tools for North and South Carolina. The overarching goal of the SECC is to develop a climate information and decision support system for the southeastern USA that will contribute to an improved quality of life, increased profitability, decreased economic risks, and more ecologically sustainable management of agriculture, forestry and water resources.Toward our overarching goal we have established six objectives. As a multi-institutional consortium, different member institutions of the SECC emphasize project objectives that build on the strengths of each institution. 1. To develop downscaled ENSO climate information and forecasts for the Southeastern USA. (Florida State Univ. and Univ. of Florida) 2. To enhance and extend agricultural applications of climate forecasts in the Southeastern USA. (Univ. Miami, Univ. Florida, Univ. Georgia, Univ. Alabama-Huntsville) 3. To develop and refine methods to incorporate climate forecast in water resource management in the Southeastern USA. (Univ. Florida, Florida State Univ., Univ.Georgia, Auburn Univ., and Univ. of Alabama-Huntsville) 4. To develop new and improved methods for integrating models from different disciplines for application of climate forecast information in agricultural and water resource decision making. (Univ. Miami, Univ. Florida) 5. To foster effective use of climate information and predictions in forestry and wildfire management. (Florida State Univ.) 6. To document and assess the utility and impact of climate forecast information provided to stakeholders in agriculture and water resource management. (Univ. Miami, Univ. Georgia)

Contact Person: Jones, James W.

Collaborators: G. Baigorria, J. Boote, Clyde Fraisse, K. G. Hoogenboom, K.T. Ingram, J. Paz, C. Roncoli, V. Misra

Institutions: University of Florida, University of Georgia, Florida State University

Funding Agency: Bipartisan Policy Center National Commission on Energy Policy

Start: October 2009    End: September 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension

Abstract: Farmers are concerned about climate change, how it might affect their systems, and what they should be doing or planning in response to anticipated changes in climate. This project will make use of the IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios, downscaled to the Georgia and North Florida, to assess potential impacts on three major crops grown in these states: cotton, peanut, and corn. We will work with Dr. K. Hayhoe to obtain downscaled realizations of climate change scenarios, ensuring that the most appropriate IPCC models and methods are used. The downscaled climate scenarios will be used to simulate changes in productivity and irrigation requirements for the three crops, and it will include adaptation options that farmers would likely use as climate changes. The DSSAT Cropping System Model will be used to simulate all combinations of climate scenarios, locations, soils, and management options, with and without irrigation, and with and without direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis to evaluate changes in yield and water requirements. This model has been widely tested in Georgia and Florida, and it was recently improved to incorporate the latest knowledge about CO2 responses of the different crops. Prior to the analysis, a summary of prior model evaluations in these states will be prepared to establish its utility for use in the climate change assessments. Simulated yield and irrigation requirements will be analyzed and summarized in maps, tables, graphs, and reports to discuss with stakeholders and to present to the granting agency. Stakeholder meetings will be used to engage them in the analyses and to learn from them what information they need to better prepare for climate change and how much adaptation may cost them, or if it is even possible. The work will build on the considerable experience of the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC), making use of the tools and methods developed by this program and used for assessment of climate risk in agriculture.

Contact Person: Jones, James W.

Collaborators: J. O'Brien, J. Christy, G. Hoogenboom, K. T. Ingram, J.W. Jones, D. Letson, P. Srivastava

Institutions: University of Florida, University of Miami, Florida State University, University of Georgia, University of Alabama- Huntsville, Auburn University

Funding Agency: NOAA/OGP/RISA

Start: July 2010    End: June 2015

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Coastal Ecosystems, Extension, Land, Terrestrial Ecosystems, Water

Abstract: Growing from the Florida Consortium, which was founded in 1996, the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) mission is to use advances in climate sciences, including improved capabilities to forecast seasonal climate and long-term climate change, to provide scientifically sound information and decision support tools for agricultural ecosystems, forests and other terrestrial ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems of the SE USA. As a multidisciplinary, multi-institutional team, the SECC conducts research and outreach to a broad community of users and forms partnerships with extension and education organizations to ensure that SECC products are relevant, reliable, and delivered to the public by these organizations through their networks and mechanisms. The SECC is adopting a new organization to address the climate information needs of coastal and terrestrial ecosystems in addition to the agricultural ecosystems. Research for the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems will build on the success of the SECC in providing an effective decision support system for agriculture, AgroClimate.org. Research and extension activities will emphasize collaboration among investigators from natural resources sciences, including climate, water resources, land, and energy, and investigators from applications sciences, including extension and outreach, human dimensions, integrated participatory systems analysis.

Our four scientific objectives are:

1. Working with boundary organizations, planners, regional data clearinghouses, and other stakeholders, assess the needs of decision makers for climate information, their access to and applications of climate information, and time-scales for needed information
2. Based on stakeholder assessments, develop partnerships with appropriate boundary organizations to meet the climate information needs of stakeholders, particularly in coastal and other terrestrial ecosystems
3. Provide reliable, timely, probabilistic, and local climate information according to stakeholder needs for adaptation and resilience to climate change and climate variability. Providing this information will require production of downscaled forecasts at the local level and at 1- to 30-year time scales, as well as maintaining and providing historical data and analyses for the region
4. Through integrated, multi-disciplinary activities, develop decision support tools and information delivery systems that give decision makers access to climate information that will help decision makers manage risks associated with climate change at various time scales.

Contact Person: Ingram, Keith

Collaborators: N. Breuer, M. Chelai, K.T. Ingram L. Kalin, R. Marcus, D. Nadolnyak, Srivastava, P D. Stooksbury

Institutions: Auburn University, Florida State University, University of Florida, University of Georgia, University of Miami

Funding Agency: NOAA/SARP

Start: August 2009    End: July 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Water

Contact Person: Shin, Dong-Wook

Collaborators: Y.Lim, L. Stefanova, SECC

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: ARC, USDA, Others    End: Indefinite

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences

Abstract: Researchers are currently issuing real-time regional forecasts for the Southeast using two approaches: a statistical downscaling model, and a dynamical downscaling model. "Downscaling" means translating a relative coarse-resolution forecast - in this case the FSU/COAPS Global Circulation Model (GCM; horizontal resolution of approximately 200 km) - to a finer-resolution grid over a region of interest (in this case, horizontal resolution of 20 km over the Southeast). The forecasts are issued four times per year. The starting dates and forecast lengths are tailored to the needs of seasonal crop planting planners. There are plans to diversify this set-up in the near future.

Contact Person: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Collaborators: K.T. Ingram, G. Kiker, C. Martinez

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: SERDP

Start: March 2009    End: April 2012

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Coastal Ecosystems, Climate Sciences

Contact Person: Chassignet, Eric

Collaborators: F. Coleman, D. Dukhovskoy, S. Morey , A. Todd

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: Northern Gulf Institute

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Coastal Ecosystems

Abstract: A regional ocean model, together with analysis of in situ and remotely sensed data, is used to investigate the circulation on the northern West Florida Shelf that can impact transport pathways for reef fish larvae. Several species, with gag grouper being a key species, spawn in the winter and spring months near the shelf edge, with juveniles appearing several weeks to a couple of months later in the nearshore sea grass beds. The mechanisms by which the larvae transit the shelf can depend on wind-driven circulation patterns, that exhibit strong interannual variability, and interaction with larval behavior. This project aims to understand the transport mechanisms and how the variability can affect annual recruitment.

Contact Person: Martin, Tim

Collaborators: W. Cropper, T. Martin

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: National Institute for Climatic Change Research

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Land, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Contact Person: Misra, Vasubandhu

Collaborators: Misra, V.

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: USGS

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate Sciences

Abstract: La Florida, the “Land of Flowers” straddles the latitudes that form the northern hemisphere’s desert belt. Orlando lies one degree of latitude south of Cairo, Egypt. Florida’s uniqueness lies in the fact it is a long narrow peninsula surrounded on three sides by warm water. How will Florida’s biodiversity respond to a changing climate? Which species and habitats will increase and which will decrease? What role does human induced land use – land cover (LULC) change play? Before these questions can be answered, accurate regional climate change scenarios must be developed. We propose to down-scale predictions from a suite of coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to make regional scale predictions for the Florida peninsula. We will run three scenarios of LULC: past (circa 1900), present, and future (2030-2050). Additional model runs will address the contribution of green house gasses to climate variability and change over the Florida peninsula. Model perturbation experiments will be performed to address sources of variability and their contribution to the output regional climate change scenarios. We will develop scenarios that specifically address potential changes in temperature (land and near sea surface) and rainfall fields over the peninsula. These outputs will then be used as inputs to a suite of species / habitat / ecosystem models that are currently being used as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan as a proof of concept that down-scaled climate results can work in ecological forecast models. We will then provide these scenarios and modeling results to resource management groups (NGOs, state and federal) via workshops in which the scenarios will be used to predict responses of additional selected species, habitats and ecosystems. This research addresses several of the fundamental charges of the NCCWSC – downscaling GCMs for regional predictions, regional ecological models and risk assessment.

Contact Person: Zimmerman, Andrew

Collaborators: A. Zimmerman

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Land, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Contact Person: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Collaborators: G. Baigorria, L. DeWayne Cecil, , J. Jones

Institutions: Columbia University, University of Florida

Funding Agency: NASA

Start: March 2010    End: February 2012

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Abstract: The overall objective of this project is to evaluate the impacts of uncertainty throughout the climate impacts assessment process to identify the most crucial options and provide more robust analysis for climate change decision support, thereby improving risk management and the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. NASA remote sensing tools (including several high-resolution precipitation products and surface insolation measurements) and modeling systems (including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis; MERRA) will also be introduced into the impacts assessment process and their impacts on final decision support estimated. Three specific objectives for this project come from investigations of uncertainties introduced in the selection of assessment options in each of the three major steps of climate impacts assessment

1. To determine how the selection of data for a baseline climate record, used to represent a historical period for the calibration of the impacts assessment model, affects projected climate impacts and related decision support in the agricultural sector in Gulf Coast States.
2. To determine how the selection of a climate impacts assessment model, along with its management options and level of generality, affects projected climate impacts and related decision support in the agricultural sector in Gulf Coast States.
3. To determine how the selection of a method to produce future climate scenarios and the parameters capable of changing under future climate conditions affect projected climate impacts and related decision support in the agricultural sector in Gulf Coast States.

Contact Person: Martin, Tim

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: UF IFAS Dean for Research

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Land

Contact Person: Martin, Tim

Collaborators: H. Beck, S. Grunwald, T. Martin

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: Florida Energy Systems Consortium

Start: 2009    End: 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Land

Contact Person: Grunwald, Sabine

Collaborators: T. Martin

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: National Institute for Climatic Change Research

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Land

Abstract: Rising CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and effects on global climate change have been well documented, and future impacts are uncertain but potentially devastating. Florida's natural and agro-forest ecosystems have much potential to sequester carbon in biomass and soils due to unique climatic and landscape conditions. However, research gaps exist to accurately assess carbon pools and fluxes at coarse scales, ranging from county to the region and larger. The overarching objective of this project is to address these obstacles by creating a database infrastructure for the carbon science community, focused on ecosystems in Florida and the southeastern United States. The database will be administered through the UF Carbon Resources Science Center, a multi-disciplinary Center dedicated to research in support of enhanced agricultural and natural resource carbon management. In addition to applied research, basic research remains necessary to quantify carbon pools and fluxes for many ecosystems, and to understand how perturbations such as land use change or climatic factors impact carbon balance.

Contact Person: Martinez, Christopher J.

Collaborators: Martinez, C.

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NOAA/SARP

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Water

Contact Person: Martinez, Christopher J.

Collaborators: R. Boyles, U. Hatch, J.L. Heitman, J.W. Jones, C. J. Martinez, C.H. Peacock, G. Wilkerson,

Institutions: North Carolina State University, University of Florida

Funding Agency: NOAA

Start: July 2009    End: June 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Education, Extension, Water

Abstract: This project will explore the possibilities for using historical climate data and climate forecasts to help urban water managers assess future residential irrigation demands and implement strategies to reduce those demands. Specific objectives include: 1) obtain and analyze historical water usage data from city water managers in North Carolina and Florida; 2) investigate strategies for reducing irrigation water use in urban areas without adversely affecting turfgrass health; and 3) determine possible benefits of using one- to three-month climate forecasts to project potential water demands for residential lawns. City water managers in two North Carolina and two Florida cities have agreed to cooperate in this study. They will supply data which will be used to estimate per household irrigation water usage in recent years when water restrictions of different magnitudes were in place. This will serve as a baseline for comparison. Using historical climate data, available from NOAA, we will simulate alternative turfgrass irrigation strategies for residential lawns. We will assume that irrigation can occur under a variety of scenarios, including whenever needed, or limited by different types of restrictions. A daily drought index will be calculated for each simulated irrigation strategy. Optimal irrigation strategies which minimize water use, while keeping the drought index within acceptable limits, will be determined for each location, turfgrass, and season. We will generate and evaluate one- to three-month drought forecasts using a) ENSO phase, and b) Climate Prediction Center one- and three-month outlooks. Simulation results will be used to evaluate the potential contribution of improved irrigation methods in the overall portfolio of potential conservation and efficiency measures used by urban water systems. This project will characterize, and help reduce, climate-related risk and vulnerability faced by urban water managers as they make decisions. It will provide methodology and simulation and analysis tools which can be used to assess the effects of climate variability or climate change on residential irrigation demands in other locations and situations.

Contact Person: Misra, Vasubandhu

Collaborators: Misra, V.

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: NOAA

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Water

Abstract: In this proposal we are proposing to produce experimental high-resolution retrospective regional climate forecasts for the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the South American Monsoon (SAM) by nesting the regional spectral model (RSM) into the climate forecast system (CFS) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This project is unique for the following reasons: 1. It is adopting new nesting strategies of anomaly nesting (AN) and scale selective bias correction that have shown to enhance the skill of the seasonal climate integrations from the RSM. The proposed novel downscaling techniques shall be leveraging from the huge suite of existing CFS hindcasts. 2. The nesting of the RSM is being done in a global dynamical-coupled prediction system of the NCEP CFS. 3. It is expanding the scope of the NCEP CFS to hydrologic prediction of streamflow and river discharge of some major river basins in NAM and SAM from the implementation of an off line river routing scheme. 4. A single regional domain that includes both NAM and SAM will be used to enable the study of the dry and wet monsoons. It is proposed to conduct 10 years of Boreal summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) and winter (Jan-Feb-Mar) seasonal integrations with the RSM at 60km horizontal resolution nested into each of the 15 ensemble members of the CFS. The scientific questions to be pursued in this project from these model integrations are as follows:

• How do the proposed global and regional model prediction experiments reproduce the observed summer precipitation and surface temperature over the American Monsoon regions?
• How is the predictability over the American Monsoon regions associated with the leading patterns of climate variability? How much of the predictability of the resulting seasonal precipitation anomalies can be downscaled to local precipitation variability?
• What is the relative influence of the intraseasonal variability and ENSO over the monsoon regions? How does the regional model simulate the interactions between the local processes and regional and larger scale variability?
• Can useful probabilistic predictions be made of seasonal, intraseasonal variability of precipitation, river discharge (over major river basins such as the Amazon, La Plata, Rio Grande, Colorado river basins)?
• What is the role of the bias in SST predictions from CFS on the downscaled seasonal climate predictions of SAM and NAM?
• How is predictability of precipitation, base flow and surface runoff related to streamflow predictability? (Inter-river basin comparisons will also be part of this study).

Contact Person: Prizzia, Anna

Collaborators: A. Prizzia

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: various

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Extension, Land

Contact Person: Putz, Francis

Collaborators: G.Barnes, F. Putz, C. Romero

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: HED US AID

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Land, Extension, Water

Contact Person: Southworth, Jane

Collaborators: M.Binford, L. Cassidy, B.Child, E. Keys, G.Kiker, R.Munoz-Carpena, P.Waylen

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NASA

Start: September 2009    End: September 2013

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Education, Land

Abstract: We ask "how does climate variability and climate change influence land use and land cover change as it works through socio-economic institutions?" To answer this question, the proposed project develops a temporally and spatially multiscale understanding of the relationships between land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) and climatic shifts in three watersheds that lie in four southern African nations. We hypothesize that socio-economic institutions are the main instruments of human adaptation to climate variability and change, and that the observable outcomes of institutional adaptations are seen in the spatial and material expression of LCLUC. This study will test the resilience of the socio-ecological systems of southern Africa, enhance the use of remote sensing, and provide models for climate scenario planning. Specific research activities will develop relationships between climate data (station data), Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) data (1999 onwards, spatially interpolated station data and satellite data combined) and surface vegetation properties in terms of land cover changes (with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Describing and explaining natural climate variability enables us to match this variability with social processes, livelihoods and economics and link these to past changes in LCLUC and climate. Future regional climate scenarios will be incorporated based on the IPCC and implications for both the social and ecological systems will be tested using both the SAVANNA model (Coughenour, 1992; Boone et al., 2002) and the QnD modeling system (Kiker et al., 2006).

Contact Person: Yin, Jianjun

Collaborators: J. Yin

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: DOE

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Abstract: The primary purposes of this proposal are; a) finalize the incorporation of HYCOM into CCSM, b) assess the impact of the isopycnic versus depth coordinates, and c) use the coupled CCSM/HYCOM as a powerful research tool for climate studies. In all activities, Drs. Chassignet and Yin will interact and coordinate with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), CCSM and HYCOM communities which include the scientific users, the ocean and coupled climate model development teams and the project leaders.

Contact Person: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Collaborators: W. Zhaohua

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Contact Person: Zierden, David

Collaborators: D. Zierden

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: State of Florida

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Abstract: The Florida Climate Center is part of three-tiered system that serves to provide climate data, information, and services for the United States. Affiliated with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, NC and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) in Columbia, SC, the Florida Climate Center should be the first stop for climate data and information for citizens, organizations, educational institutions and private businesses in the state of Florida. We seek to serve the state of Florida by providing:

• Climate Data: Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
• Climate Information: Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
• Extreme Events: Information and analyses on extreme events such as storms, freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
• Special Analysis: With his vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
• Outreach: Inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues.

Contact Person: Bourassa, Mark

Collaborators: J. Carlson, S.R. Smith

Institutions: Florida State University, University of South Florida

Funding Agency: NASA

Start: June 2010    End: May 2013

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Education

Abstract: The overall goal of this three-year project is to increase teacher content knowledge in global climate change and provide pedagogical training to enable teachers to stimulate student's interest in and learning about climate change. Teachers will learn to use and practice using resources available through NASA and elsewhere to incorporate global climate change education in the classroom.The project includes one year of developing programs and two years of sustained professional development (PD) for middle-school science teachers. Two cohorts, each composed of 15-18 middle-school science teachers, will be selected from three Florida school districts with high proportions of students from groups historically underrepresented in science and technology career fields - Hillsborough, Polk, and Volusia. At the outset of the project, student focus groups will be presented with current topics in climate change and asked to identify content that interests them to be included in the teacher workshops. A PD panel consisting of climate scientists and educators will meet several times during the first year to develop the teacher PD. The panel will review available climate literacy frameworks, consider student input, select materials for inclusion in the PD, develop specifications for additional resources, and design a year-long program for teachers. The PD content will include local and regional topics to stimulate interest in climate change topics for both the teachers and their students.Selected PD panel members and experts identified by school districts will participate in coach training and later serve as coaches for teacher participants. The program will be ongoing throughout the school year to maximize teachers' ability to apply their new learning in the classroom. Teachers will participate in three face-to-face workshops, ongoing coaching, and online interactive training and communication throughout the academic year. Climate scientists and science education faculty members will provide the training and online communications. The evaluation will provide formative information for enhancing program effectiveness during the life of the project and alert project staff to any issues that need resolution early in its design and throughout implementation. It will assess the degree to which the primary objectives of the project are attained and the degree of value added by the project. Plans will be prepared for continuing the program in school districts through a teach-the-teacher and coaching model.

Contact Person: LaRow, Tim

Collaborators: Lydia Stefanova

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: US Department of Energy

Start: September 2010    End: August 2013

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Water

Abstract: Abstract: The objective of this proposal is to determine the relative contribution to the projected Atlantic hurricane variability in the mid to late 21st century stemming from anthropogenic and from natural low frequency changes in sea surface temperatures based on the CMIP5 projections, using a numerical atmospheric model with demonstrated skill in reproducing the recent historical hurricane variability. In order to provide an estimate of the statistics of Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of the 21st century, we need to consider

1. The changing background climate (that consists of a warming trend and high-frequency fluctuations, including the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (which may or may not itself experience a forced change)), and
2. The uncertainty of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase at particular segments of the future period.

Contact Person: Graham, Wendy

Collaborators: J. W. Jones, C. Martinez

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: Tampa Bay Water

Start: April 2007    End: December 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Water

Abstract: The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks in South West Florida associated with the use of multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for water resource planning. South West Florida, which includes the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, arguably has the most intense competition for water resources among urban, agricultural and ecological users, as well as significant vulnerability to floods, droughts, and and long-term climate change. The major water resource decision makers in this area are Tampa Bay Water, the largest public water supplier in the region, and the South West Florida Water Management District, which has the responsibility of issuing permits to local and regional governments, agriculture, and other users of surface and aquifer water sources. In this research we will develop and implement a prototype modeling system that provides multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for use in Tampa Bay Water's water resource decision making processes. A variety of dynamical and statistical Global Climate Model (GCM) downscaling techniques will be developed and evaluated for the Tampa Bay Region. The most successful techniques will be used to drive Tampa Bay Water's Integrated Hydrologic Model to determine potential impacts of multi-decadal climate varaibility and climate change on water supply reliability in the region.

Contact Person: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Collaborators: S. Leitman, B. Blanchard, D. Tankersley

Institutions: University of Florida, Florida State University

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Water

Abstract: The fundamental dilemma we explore is the process through which states may equitably and sustainably share the water resources of a transboundary river basin. This case focuses on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) basin that includes portions of three states: Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. For three decades, these states have been engaged in what the media has dubbed the "Tristate Water Wars." The key argument is over the equitable allocation of water in the basin among different states and user groups. Conflict is exacerbated during periods of drought. The federal government has not legislatively defined standards for interstate sharing of water in the same manner as it has with water quality through the Clean Water Act. There is no agreement or authority that guides basin-wide water management and the equitable division of water among all parties with an interest. The states have four options to achieve this goal: (1) form an interstate compact (this was attempted in 1999-2004), (2) have Congress pass legislation, (3) litigate through the federal courts, or (4) do nothing. This project has two major objectives. First, to present stakeholders' perspectives -- in their own words -- as to how equitable and sustainable water sharing could be accomplished and why this has not yet been achieved. Second, to create an educational tool that allows students to explore potential outcomes of various water allocation decisions. This case offers students an opportunity to explore how science and social values interact in the management of a large, complex, common-pool resource. It builds on existing scholarship: Leitman (2005) has published a case study of the ACF Compact and its ultimate demise. We therefore propose an updated case study that focuses on what has occurred in the basin since 2004 in order to show the Compact efforts as part of a longer-term trajectory of policymaking and governance.

Contact Person: Smith, Shawn R.

Collaborators: S. Cocke, M. Powell

Institutions: Florida State University, NOAA

Funding Agency: IESES (Florida States University)

Start: Jan 2009    End: December 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Energy, Human Dimensions

Abstract: Proposals for offshore wind farms along the United States coastline are growing in number. Two main considerations are used in the determination of a region's potential for wind power: shallow water depths and wind speed values large enough to produce profitable wind power quantities. The Northern Gulf of Mexico lies above the West Florida shelf and is known to experience strong large-scale diurnal flow regimes, including sea/land breeze circulations. Until recently, lack of surface observations in this area has been a limiting factor in producing an accurate measure of whether or not an offshore wind farm is a viable option. The Northern Gulf of Mexico Cooperative Institute (NGI) has supported surface atmospheric and oceanic measurements at Air Force tower number 7 (N7) in the Apalachicola Bay since October 2008. This newly acquired data provides a primary resource for the author's analysis of potential wind power generation for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Wind power potential is assessed using three sources. Surface observations are used from the NGI tower number 7 (N7) and the National Data Buoy Center's Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4). North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) model data is compared to observed data to establish whether models can serve as a reliable source for determining potential wind generation in areas where in situ data is not available. Wind speed, air temperature, dew point, and water temperature are used to calculate the average raw hourly power density at anemometer height (30 m) and at a typical wind turbine hub height (85 m). Two methods are used in adjusting the 30 m in situ and model wind speeds to the 85 meters needed: a crude adjustment using the power law and the BVW (Bourassa-Vincent-Wood) flux and sea state model. For a GE 3.6 MW offshore turbine to reach minimum production it must encounter wind speeds above 3.5 m/s and maximum production is reached at 14.5 m/s. The average wind speed for the N4 and N7 towers at 30 m ranged from 5-7 m/s and increased by about 1-2 m/s after adjusting to 85 m. The log adjustment of the wind speed reveals about a 0.5 m/s more of and increase than the BVW model. A comparison to the NARR model indicates that using approximated data underestimates the available wind power in a region. The extremes found in the observed data are simply not seen in the model data. Overall, the northwestern Gulf of Mexico does show the potential in making several thousand megawatts of power available to homes in Florida.

Contact Person: Grunwald, Sabine

Collaborators: G. L. Bruland, N. B. Comerford, W. G. Harris, D. B. Myers, D. V. Sarkhot, G. M. Vasques

Institutions: University of Florida, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Funding Agency: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) -National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)

Start: September 2009    End: September 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Land

Abstract: The goal of this research is to assess the effects of land cover/land use (LC/LU) change on carbon stocks giving special attention to translating site-specific carbon pools (labile, recalcitrant and total carbon) to landscape scales. Our objectives are to: (i) Determine soil carbon pools in various ecosystem types across a large southeastern landscape (Florida) cutting across soil nutrient, LC/LU and climatic/hydrologic gradients; (ii) Investigate the strength and magnitude of relationships between environmental landscape properties and corresponding carbon pools within a GIS; (iii) Derive functional models relating measured soil carbon fractions to soil spectra in the visible/near-infrared (VNIR) range to develop rapid and cost-effective soil carbon prediction models; (iv) Model change trajectories, i.e. assess historic and actual soil carbon stocks and turnover rates in various ecotypes; and (v) Upscale site-specific VNIR-derived and laboratory-measured soil carbon pools to the landscape scale by modeling spatial autocorrelations and covariations with environmental landscape properties; and validate the derived geospatial soil carbon models using an independent dataset. Our methodology is based on comprehensive historic (~1,300 soil samples) and reconnaissance (~1,000) soil samples representing various ecotypes identified using a a stratified-random sampling design (strata: land use-suborder combinations). Various hypotheses will be tested to investigate relationships between soil carbon pools and environmental landscape properties using analysis of variance, multivariate regression methods and Canonical Correlation Analysis. Chemometric modeling will be used to relate spectra to analytical measures. Hybrid geospatial methods will be used to develop soil carbon models for Florida. This proposal addresses USDA's priority research areas including spatially-explicit soil carbon modeling.

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, H. Berbery

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)

Start: April 2009    End: March 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Human Dimensions, Land

Contact Person: Fraisse, Clyde

Collaborators: J.Baez, N. Breuer, J. M. Fernandes, C. A. Forcelini, C. Fraisse, W. Pavan

Institutions: Universidad Catolica Nuestra Senora de la Asuncion (Paraguay); University of Florida; University of Miami; Universidade de Passo Fundo (Brazil)

Funding Agency: USDA NIFA / FSU

Start: July 2008    End: June 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension, Human Dimensions, Water

Abstract: The long-term goal of this project is to design, develop, and implement a prototype comprehensive information and decision support system. The purpose of this system is to inform farmers, ranchers, foresters, water resource managers, industry, and policy makers about climate risks and to identify management practices that can reduce risks and increase benefits by using this climate information.This system has been implemented on the Internet at http://www.AgroClimate.org.

Specific objectives for this study are:

1. To design and develop prototype climate forecast information
2. To design and develop prototype state and regional agricultural and water resource outlooks
3. To design and develop prototype commodity-based decision support system
4. To design and develop prototype watershed-based decision support system
5. To educate producers and their advisors on the applications of climate-based decision support systems and
6. Evaluate the design and potential value of decision support tools and systems.

Contact Person: Jones, James W.

Collaborators: G. Baigorria, C. Fraisse, J.W. Jones

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: NASA

Start: October 2009    End: September 2012

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension, Human Dimensions

Abstract: The overall objective of this project is to adapt and apply state of the art climate modeling and remote sensing tools developed by NASA to enable partnering agencies to anticipate the effects of climate variability and change, including droughts and floods, on agricultural crop yields, and thereby to improve the management of risk in the context of agricultural productivity and sustainability.

To ensure the success of this overall objective, the following three specific objectives are defined:

1. To expand the usage of climate model and mission product information about major climate variability systems (ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation [AO]) at both short-term (seasonal) and long-term (multi-decadal timescales) in DSSAT.
2. To incorporate an end-to-end probabilistic approach beginning with changes in mean climate variables important to crop growth (such as surface air temperature and precipitation) and extending to yield projections and profit information from DSSAT.
3. To integrate the impacts of projected changes in extreme climate events, as simulated by regional climate models driven by global climate models and validated by mission products into DSSAT in order to provide more complete and precise yield information and management options.

Contact Person: Jones, James W.

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, K.T. Ingram, J.W. Jones, J. O'Brien

Institutions: University of Florida, University of Florida State

Funding Agency: USDA RMA

Start: September 2002    End: September 2011

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Climate Sciences, Extension, Human Dimensions

Abstract: The overall goal of this program is to enhance and to improve the sustainability of the AgroClimate web-based tools that provide climate forecast information to producers and to provide risk management decision aids for use in the specified specialty crop commodities and forestry.

The specific objectives for this two-year continuation are:

1. Develop an AgroClimate open source project and community of cooperators to enhance its sustainability and facilitate its adoption by other states.
2. Develop tools, databases, and processes to update AgroClimate forecasts at a weekly or monthly frequency
3. Analysis of North Carolina stakeholder characteristics
4. Hold workshops in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama to better acquaint extension agents and farmers with the new AgroClimate and its tools
5. Hold a final peer review panel to assess accomplishments
6. Prepare final project report to RMA.

Contact Person: Martinez, Christopher J.

Collaborators: T. Borisova, N. E. Breuer, J.W. Jones, C. J. Martinez, D. E. Stooksbury

Institutions: UF, University of Miami, University of Georgia

Funding Agency: NOAA

Start: July 2010    End: June 2012

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Human Dimensions, Extension, Water

Abstract: The overall goal of this project is to provide an assessment of the current uses of, needs for, perceptions of, and attitudes towards weather and climate information, forecasts, and derived products by water resource managers in the states of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, as well as to identify gaps in diagnostic and forecast information currently available. Water resource management systems in these three states vary in terms of size, complexity, institutional and regulatory constraints, infrastructure, and water source. This project will target large and midsized water resource managers in the three states and will increase our understanding of the issues and constraints to integrating forecasts into decision making, and the potential opportunities for providing custom-tailored, user-centric tools. Regional- and sector-specific assessment of users of such information is essential for providing custom-tailored information,tools, and decision support in the future. Based on preliminary survey results collected from water resource managers in the region, evaporation forecasts have been cited as one of the most desired products. In this project we will develop 1-14 day and monthly evaporation forecasts (with a forecast horizon of 9 months) using forecast analogs from the reforecast archives currently available for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). The analog forecasts will be downscaled to a resolution of 32-km using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The concurrent assessment of water resource managers and the development of forecast tools in this and other projects will provide an opportunity for feedback between scientists of the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) and end-users.

Contact Person: Misra, Vasubandhu
Collaborators: V. Misra, J.G. Morris

Institutions: Florida State University, University of South Florida

Funding Agency: UF/CDC

Start: September 2009    End: September 2013

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Human Dimensions

Abstract: In exploring links between climate change and human illness, significant attention has been given to the potential impact of such change on harmful algal bloom (HAS) populations and the illnesses that they cause. Among the various HAS-related human diseases, ciguatera has the greatest public health and economic impact, with recent studies from French Polynesia linking ciguatera incidence with increasing seawater temperatures: as such, ciguatera may serve as a key "sentinel" disease for global warming. We are proposing to build on the approach used in the South Pacific climate/ciguatera studies, but with a shift in focus to the Caribbean and "Caribbean ciguatera," taking advantage of our long-standing base for epidemiologic and environmental studies in the U.S. Virgin Islands. We hypothesize that climatic disturbances/disruptions of reef areas result in overgrowth of species of the dinoflagellate Gambierdiscus, with subsequent, and predictable, increases in fish toxicity and ciguatera incidence in endemic areas. To explore this hypothesis, we are proposing 1) to identify and characterize hospital and clinic-based ciguatera cases on St. Thomas and St. John; and to conduct cross-sectional surveys to develop accurate community-based estimates of disease incidence. As a second component of the study, we will monitor Gambierdiscus populations at sentinel sites around St. Thomas, looking at dinoflagellate distribution, abundance, and population structure; and collect data on toxin concentrations and structural diversity in dinoflagellates, locally caught fish, and fish/fish remnants implicated as the cause of ciguatera cases. Finally, we will seek to correlate weather patterns, including, in particular, the Atlantic Warm Pool, with prospective dinoflagellate population data, and prospective and retrospective disease incidence data; and to develop predictive models for occurrence of illness in human populations. The project explores the hypothesis that climatic disturbances/disruptions of reef areas result in overgrowth of species of the dinoflagellate Gambierdiscus, with subsequent, and predictable, increases in fish toxicity and incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning in endemic areas. The study will be performed on the islands of St. Thomas and St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands; data will be collected on ciguatera incidence, and on dinoflagellate populations implicated as the source of the toxins that cause the disease.

Influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Cimate of the Lesser Antilles

Contact Person: Misra, Vasubandhu
Collaborators: Misra, V.
Institutions: Florida State University
Funding Agency: USGS
Status: Funded
Abstract: The sustainability of a society and in this context of island nations is critically dependent on the fresh water availability. A significant source of the fresh water in these islands comes from precipitation. In this research we propose to study the rainfall variability of the Lesser Antilles in the late boreal summer-early fall (August-September-October [ASO]) season. Since most of the current global climate models are so coarse in horizontal resolution that these islands of the Lesser Antilles are not even resolved. As a result the interpretation of the predictions of say interannual variations of rainfall, surface temperature over these islands are based on the large-scale variations. There is however reason to speculate that there could be some local feedback mechanism such as that of the land-atmosphere interactions, or the influence of local orography that may influence the local climate, unresolved in the global climate models. This mechanistic study offers to first understand the role of the interannual variations of the surrounding oceans on the rainfall variations of the Lesser Antilles. This could lead to a possible insight to the behavior of the ASO rainfall in the Lesser Antilles in a warming climate. This study is investigating a possible source of predictability of the ASO seasonal rainfall variation from the slowly varying Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) area. Furthermore, this study will also help us in understanding the influence on the Lesser Antilles ASO seasonal rainfall by the large-scale variations of the Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean at longer temporal scales of decadal variability and climate change signal. The research focus on the season of ASO assumes significance as it coincides with the annual peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, as a consequence we will also be examining the impact of the interannual variations of the frequency and intensity of the extreme rain events from tropical storms on the local terrestrial hydrological budget. All of these research objectives are of great relevance to regional water managers, farmers, policy makers and to the tourism industry as all of these constituents are critically dependent on fresh water sources in these islands.

Location: NW Florida (Walton, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties)

Description: We are investigating the potential effects of near-term (~100 years) sea-level change on the northwest Florida coast. The interdisciplinary environmental project is examining potential changes to natural coastal systems and infrastructure in response to several scenarios of sea-level rise and storminess. We are using remote-sensing data and field measurements of coastal environments as input to an integrated modeling effort designed to predict changes to coastal systems and human infrastructure. The modeling results will be used to evaluate how to make reliable predictions of the effects of future climate change and to enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Faculty Involved: Dr. Joseph Donoghue (EOAS), Dr.. James Elsner (FSU-Geography), Dr. Bill Hu (EOAS), Dr. Stephen Kish (EOAS), Dr. Yang Wang (EOAS), Dr. Ming Ye (FSU-Computational Science), and Dr. Alan Niedoroda (URS Corp.), and several graduate student assistants.

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Location: NW Florida (Walton County)

Description: This project is investigating the record of major storm impacts on the NW Florida coast, using sediment cores from coastal lakes. We are using both sedimentologic and geochemical proxies, along with sediment geochronology, to reconstruct storm history over the past several millennia. The results will be combined with the historic storm record to model future storms and develop a more complete understanding of storm occurrence and risk for the NW Florida coast.

Faculty Involved: Dr. Joseph Donoghue (EOAS), Dr. James Elsner (FSU-Geography), Dr. Yang Wang (EOAS), Dr. Ming Ye (FSU-Computational Science), Dr. Alan Niedoroda (URS Corp.), and graduate students Jen Coor (EOAS) and Oindrila Das (EOAS).

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Location: St. Vincent Island, NW Florida (Franklin County)

Description: We are studying the relatively undisturbed barrier islands of the NE Gulf of Mexico with the goal of understanding how small-scale changes in sea level during the late Holocene have interacted with sediment supply to effect geomorphologic change. St. Vincent Island is a unique strandplain comprising more than 100 beach ridges, each representing the island shoreline as the island has advanced into the Gulf of Mexico. We have been using optical dating (OSL) to develop a detailed history of island development and response to sea-level change.

Faculty Involved: Dr. Joseph Donoghue (EOAS), grad students

Filed Under: Climate Sciences

Location: Coastal Florida (west and east coasts)

Description: The sediment elevation table (SET) program is a series of more than a dozen wetland monitoring stations on the west and NE Florida coasts. The program was  initiated by the Florida Geological Survey’s Coastal Program, with cooperation from FSU researchers. The stations monitor sediment accretion, elevation change, subsidence and sea-level change. Several FSU coastal geology students have been involved in the project in recent years.

Faculty Involved: Dr. Joseph Donoghue (EOAS), grad students, FGS personnel.

Filed Under: Land

Contact Person: Bourassa, Mark

Collaborators: P. Hughes, J. Steffen

Institutions: Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Filed Under: Energy

Abstract: Ocean winds are one of the most important climate variables for coupled air/sea interaction and ocean forcing. A climate data record of ocean winds relies on the combined observations from several types of satellites (scatterometers and various types of radiometers). Even if the wind observations are perfectly calibrated, differences in sampling will contribute to errors in gridded products. The proposed activities will (1) determine and   graphically demonstrate differences associated with calibration errors and differences associated with sampling, (2) determine error characteristics in gridded products, and (3) make the information from these studies readily available to users of these products. Furthermore, feedback from the users will be used to improve how we communicate this information and improve the type of information that is provided.

PI: Dr. Tom Smith, Research Ecologist, Southeast Ecological Science Center, USGS

Filed Under: Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate Sciences, Coastal Ecosystems

Abstract: This project is in support of research needs identified by staff of the Peninsular Florida LCC. The down-scaled climate model data from the La Florida project will be used as inputs to a variety of ecological models for a number of plant and animal species of interest in Florida and the SE United States. Climate envelop models will be developed to make predictions about potential range expansions, contractions and geographical shifts across the landscape. Species to be modeled could include endangered species (e.g. American Crocodile, Florida Manatee), charismatic fauna (e.g. wading birds, alligator), invasive, exotic species (e.g. Australian mangroves), and possibly others after the research team has consulted with resource managers and Land Conservation Consortium staff. Collaborating Investigators on this project include Dr. Stephanie Romanach, USGS, and Drs. Vasu Misra and Lydia Stephanova, at COAPS.

PI: Dr. Andrea Dutton, Asst. Professor, Geology, UF

Filed Under: Water

Abstract: This 3-year study will examine the dynamics of ice sheets and sea level change during a warm period in earth's history. his research will involve field work in the Seychelles, Bahamas, and Jamaica to constrain the position of sea level in the far- and near- field of the large ice sheets that exist during glacial periods. These observational data will be reconciled with glacial isostatic modeling to understand the behavior of globally averaged, or eustatic, sea level change.

PI: Dr. John Lanicci, Professor, Applied Meterology, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Human Dimensions

Abstract: Co-PIs are Dr. Dan Britt from the Physics Department at UCF, and Dr. Frank Merceret from the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office.

Contact Person: Smith, Shawn

Collaborators: M. Schwadron

Institutions: Florida State University, Southeast Archeological Center (National Park Service)

Funding Agency: NPS

Start: 2013 -

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate Sciences, Education, Coastal Ecosystems, Human Dimensions

Abstract: The Southeast Archeological Center (SEAC) of the National Park Service (NPS) has partnered with the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at the Florida State University to conduct an assessment of the risks posed by ongoing climate change to cultural resources at national parks in the Southeast. Preliminary studies have identified modern, colonial, and pre-colonial atmospheric and oceanographic data that can be used to assess the risks to irreplaceable cultural resource sites within Canaveral National Seashore and Everglades National Park. At these sites, rising sea level combined with the exposure of the Florida Peninsula to hurricanes are the most prominent risks to cultural resources.

Contact Person: Griffin, Melissa

Collaborators: D. Zierden, M. Jagger

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: State of Florida Department of Health/Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Human Dimensions

Abstract: David Zierden and Melissa Griffin with the Florida Climate Center are collaborating with the Florida Department of Health on a project involving climate variability, climate change, and public health in Florida. The project is called Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) and is receiving multi-year funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The project kicked off with a meeting of the technical advisory committee (chaired by David Zierden) on May 29, 2013, in Tallahassee. The Florida Climate Center is assisting in the preparation of a climate and health profile report and examining how various aspects of climate change can impact public health and disease risks.

Contact Person: Bartels, Wendy-Lin

Collaborators: C. Fraisse, D. Zierden

Institutions: University of Florida, Florida State University, Southeast Climate Consortium, AgroClimate

Funding Agency: NCEP, USDA-NIFA, NOAA

Start: 2010 -

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Agriculture, Extension

Abstract: The broad aim of this Tri-state climate group is to encourage on-going interactions among row crop stakeholders for knowledge exchange and learning. Participants explore management options for adapting production systems in the face of a changing and variable climate. Workshops build and strengthen relationships and communication among participants involved in research, outreach, and practice. We emphasize hands-on, peer-to-peer learning through on-farm field visits, experimentation, and in-depth discussions. We strive to facilitate a two-way flow of information and ideas within this climate learning network so that local experiences can influence research directions (and vice versa).

Contact Person: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Collaborator Names: Dr. Henry Briceño, Dr. Jeff Onsted, Mario Londono

Filed Under: Coastal Ecosystems, Climate Sciences, Land, Water

Participating Institutions: FIU

Funding Agency: NSF

Contact Person: Letson, David

Collaborators: Letson, David (UM); Broad, Kenny (UM); and others

Institutions: Colorado State University, University of Miami, and others

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Water, Human Dimensions

Contact Person: Feiock, Richard

Collaborators: Feiock, Richard (FSU); and others

Institutions: University of Minnesota, Florida State University, and others

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Human Dimensions

Contact Person: Evelyn Gaiser

Collaborators: FIU biologists Evelyn Gaiser, John Kominoski and Tiffany Troxler; and others

Institutions: Arizona State University, Florida International University, and others

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Human Dimensions; Climate Sciences

Contact Person: Ryan, Sadie

Collaborators: Erin Mordecai (PI; Stanford University); Sadie Ryan (UF); Matt Thomas (Penn State University); Leah Johnson (USF); Jason Rohr (USF); Anna Stewart Ibarra (SUNY-Upstate Medical University); Van Savage (UCLA); Marco Neira (Catholic University of Quito); and other collaborators in Ecuador

Institutions: Stanford University, University of Florida, University of South Florida

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Human Dimensions; Terrestrial Ecosystems

Abstract: Understanding how temperature affects disease-causing organisms and the mosquitoes that carry them is critical for predicting and responding to future changes in disease risk. Many of the world's most devastating and neglected infectious diseases require mosquitoes and other insects for transmission between people. Malaria kills over 650,000 people each year, mostly children in sub-Saharan Africa, and pathogens like West Nile virus, dengue virus, and chikungunya virus are on the rise in both North America and the tropics. Mosquitoes and the pathogens they carry are sensitive to the environment, so changes in climate, particularly temperature, affect disease risk both in the tropics and in temperate areas. This award supports research to measure the effect of temperature on 13 different pathogens that use mosquitoes and flies for transmission, and the capacity for two common mosquitoes in the Americas to adapt to different temperature conditions. In addition, this work will support STEM education through training in science and math with a focus on under-represented groups, and will contribute publicly available data that can be used by other researchers and public health professionals.

The goal of this project is to develop a general framework for predicting the temperature sensitivity of vector transmission. This work addresses three main questions: (1) How does vector-borne pathogen transmission respond to temperature? (2) How important is the influence of temperature, relative to other factors, on transmission in the field? (3) Can such transmission adapt to local temperature regimes? The research will develop temperature-sensitive transmission models and fit them with data from the existing literature for 13 vector-borne diseases: vivax malaria, trypanosomiasis, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, West Nile, Eastern equine encephalitis, Western equine encephalitis, St. Louis encephalitis, Rift Valley fever, Ockelbo (Sindbis) disease, Ross River fever, and bluetongue. Laboratory experiments will measure local thermal adaptation of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, which transmit dengue and other viruses, from across their geographic and temperature ranges. In tandem, the research will develop and test theory on how vectors and parasites respond to temperature based on theory from physiological ecology. New local-scale data collected in Ecuador on transmission risk, dengue cases, climate, and other social and economic factors will be used to validate the model predictions. Complementing these local-scale data, the research will develop a global database on field transmission from the existing literature, along with climatic and socioeconomic information. Together, these field data will test the accuracy of the transmission models and assess the relative importance of temperature for transmission at scales from neighborhood to continent.

Contact Person: Crowl, Todd A.

Collaborators: Todd A. Crowl, Rudolf Jaffe, Rene M. Price, Shu-Ching Chen, Laird H. Kramer

Institutions: Florida International University

Funding Agency: NSF

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Water, Human Dimensions

Abstract: With National Science Foundation support, Florida International University will establish the Center for Aquatic Chemistry and the Environment. Human-derived environmental contaminants consist of antibiotics and pharmaceuticals, mercury, black carbon, and fossil fuels. These stressors are recognized as having significant effects on ecosystems and biota as well as on human wellbeing. It is critical to understand the biogeochemical processes that govern the fate of these compounds and their impacts on the ecosystem. Center for Aquatic Chemistry and the Environment research will address the sources, transport, transformation and ecosystem responses to contaminants, pollutants and other natural stressors, under changing land-use and environmental conditions.

The Center for Aquatic Chemistry and the Environment will generate significant new knowledge regarding contaminants and pollutants in aquatic environments, as well as produce innovative methodologies for detecting and assessing contaminant quantities and impacts, including the use of molecular detection techniques. The proposed research will advance current efforts on the biological effects, transport, transformation and distribution of contaminants in the environment into new collaborative research areas that investigate the sources and transport of contaminants and pollutants in aquatic systems.

The Center articulates three research subprojects organized around environmental chemistry, biogeochemistry, ecology and data synthesis and modeling as they pertain to regional water resources. The first subproject will advance the effectiveness of approaches for the analysis of traditional pollutants, develop methodologies for the characterization and quantification of previously unknown contaminants and extend the applicability of molecular biology methodologies to assess environmental stressors to aquatic organisms across land-use boundaries. The second subproject uses new sensing techniques to determine biogeochemical cycles including contaminant sources, storage, transport and transformations. The third research subproject develops data analytic methods to enable synthesis across large, complex data sets to allow holistic effects assessment for understanding South Florida's aquatic ecosystem.

The Center for Aquatic Chemistry and the Environment will establish innovative opportunities for students to experience authentic and socially relevant environmental research and foster their development as future STEM professionals.

NSF Award Page: http://nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1547798

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Ecology: Science, Policy and Practice

An interdisciplinary course offered by the University of Florida Colleges of Liberal Arts & Sciences, Agriculture and Life Sciences and the College of Law and coordinated by the Florida Climate Institute. The goal of this course is to provide students a firm grounding in the science, law & policy, and economics associated with sea-level rise and climate change in the Nature Coast region through an interdisciplinary and experiential collaborative approach. This course will combine classroom lectures and disciplinary integration with an intensive field experience. Sessions will focus on ecological, coastal and marine issues through field-based immersion, practitioner lectures, and reflective discussions in an interdisciplinary context. Student teams will verbalize and defend their findings and recommendations in an open forum designed to highlight their learning

Faculty Core Team: Dr. Micheal Allen, School of Forest Resources & Conservation, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (IFAS), Dr. Ellen Martin, Department of Geology, College of Liberal Arts & Sciences,Thomas T. Ankersen, College of Law

Field & Lecture Contributors: Dr. John Jaeger, Department of Geology, Dr. Jack Putz, Department of Biology, Dr. Peter Frederick, School of Wildilfe Ecology & Conservation, Dr. Elizabeth Pienaar, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Dr. Andrea Dutton, Department of Geology, Dr. Mark Clark, Soil and Water Science, Andrew Gude (USFWS), Leslie Sturmer & Savannah Barry, Florida Sea Grant, NRLI team

Coordinating Entity: Florida Climate Institute, Carolyn Cox

Student Cap & Composition:  15 Graduate and Professional degree students comprising 5 students each from programs in CLAS, CALS and LAW

Downloads:

Sea Level Rise Poster 1

Sea Level Rise Poster 2 

Sea Level Rise Poster 3 

Sea Level Rise Poster 4 

Sea Level Rise Poster 5

Sea Level Rise & Coastal Ecology White Papers

Summary Report

Video:

YouTube Video

Contact Person: Volk, Michael

Collaborators: Gail Hansen (UF); Belinda Nettles (UF)

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: California Landscape Architectural Student Scholarship Fund (CLASS Fund)

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Land, Human Dimensions, Terrestrial Ecosystems

Year Awarded: 2017

Additional Information: The California Landscape Architectural Student Scholarship Fund (CLASS Fund) Selection Committee is pleased to announce that the 2016-17 CLASS Fund Grant Award goes to Professor Michael Volk and his research team for a project entitled, Incorporating Climate Change into Landscape Architectural Projects and Practice. 

Professor Volk from the Department of Landscape Architecture at University of Florida will lead an interdisciplinary research team to examine Landscape Architects’ roles in mitigating climate change impacts and alternative design and implementation practices in the state of Florida.  Using data from a recent survey on attitudes and perceptions of Florida landscape architects toward climate change, Professor Volk’s study will identify information gaps and possible barriers to adoption of landscape design practices that anticipate and plan for climate change, as well as potential strategies that can be used to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change on the built and natural environment.

Professor Michael Volk commented that, “landscape architects have a significant role in addressing climate change in their work and practice, and many landscape architects are already doing so. We greatly appreciate the support of the CLASS Fund and CELA in this project, and look forward to continuing our work to advance knowledge in this area.”

Other members on the research team include: Professor Gail Hansen, Department of Environmental Horticulture, University of Florida, and Belinda Nettles, PhD Candidate, Center for Landscape Conservation Planning & Levin College of Law Conservation Clinic, University of Florida.

About the Competition

In the fall of 2017, the Florida Climate Institute called on all students across our universities to create compelling videos on climate challenges that will promote understanding of impacts and inspire action! 

• Form an interdisciplinary/creative team (min. 2 disciplines) to address climate-related challenges and solutions
• Illustrate how science informs solutions but communicate a story in a new/novel way
• Show evidence of the challenge and the significance of the challenge to society
• Explain how adaptation and/or mitigation strategies will help society and better lives in a way that a non-scientist would fully understand. Potential audiences would include civic leaders, public health professionals, environmental advocates, neighborhood associations, developers, residential property owners, industries/polluters, teachers in grade school, middle or high school, engineers and architects, professional organizations

• Each participating FCI university will hold a campus-wide event in late September. Contact your FCI representative directly for local event info at http://floridaclimateinstitute.org/about/executive-board  
• The winning work from each local campus event will be entered into a statewide competition.
• The winners from the statewide competition will receive cash prizes and be able to show their work at the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact Summit December 14-15 in Fort Lauderdale. The first place award for the statewide competition will be $500. The second place award for the statewide competition will be $250.

Download Competition Guidelines

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Cities 2018 Spring Break Field Course

This interdisciplinary team-taught course -- offered and taught by faculty from the Colleges of Design, Construction & Planning, Engineering, Law, and Journalism -- was coordinated by the Florida Climate Institute.

In the first part of the semester, students were introduced via lecture to climate science, fundamentals of the planning & design, law & policy, engineering, and communications challenges that sea-level rise presents for coastal cities, using St. Augustine, with its unique cultural heritage and resources, as a case study.

During an intensive field segment in St. Augustine over spring break, multidisciplinary grad student teams developed adaptation strategies to address the challenges of increased coastal flooding, outlining law and policy, historic preservation, design, infrastructure, and communication approaches. Working with city officials, staff, residents, and other experts, UF students applied their classroom learning to address real-world problems, developing creative solutions to pressing challenges facing coastal cities today.

Faculty Core Team: Alyson Flournoy and Tim McLendon, College of Law, Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, College of Engineering, Alyson Larson, College of Journalism, and Marty Hylton and Crystal Goodison, College of Design, Construction, & Planning 

UF Contributors and Lecturers: Kathryn Frank and Mike Volk from the College of Design, Construction, & Planning, Eban Bean from the College of Engineering, Andrea Dutton from the Department of Geological Sciences, Thomas Hawkins, from UF Law and 1000 Friends of Florida, Misty Sharp from the Department of Food and Resource Economics, and Dan Fesenmeier from the UF Department of Tourism   

Course Admin and Coordinator: Carolyn Cox, Florida Climate Institute

Course video promo

The link below includes is a recording of the student presentations from their assigned sites in St. Augustine.

https://mediasite.video.ufl.edu/Mediasite/Play/bb1aff000ffd40aebb903c6689552fca1d

Intros—0-9:00minutes

Group I: Avenida Menendez—9:00-26:00

Group II: Lake Maria Sanchez—27:00-48:37

Group III: Court Theophelia—49:15-1:04​

Outside the Box Engineering Solutions—1:04-1:12

Communications Strategy and Tech---1:12-1:22

Q & A--1:22  

Final Adaptation Strategy Proposals for each group can be found below

Group I: Avenida Menendez

Group II: Lake Maria Sanchez

Group III: Court Theophelia

Watch the 2020 Spring Break Field Course video

This multi-disciplinary field-course introduced students to the challenges that communities face following disasters to recovery effectively and achieve long-term resilience. Florida communities need to adapt to the changing environment and to end the disaster/rebuild cycle through the development of effective community design, public policy, and applied science. The course, in partnership with the Florida Resilient Cities project, connected a range of disciplines through collaborative research and field-based exploration in the City of Port St. Joe where the ravages of Hurricane Michael are still being felt. Lectures, readings, and research prepared students for a one-week intensive spring break workshop in the City during spring 2020.

In the first part of the semester, students were introduced via lecture to fundamentals of the planning & design, law & policy, engineering, and communications challenges facing coastal cities in relation to sea-level rise, storm risk, and other factors that affect their long-term resilience. The Panhandle city of Port St. Joe is this semester’s case study community and host students for a spring break field study. The course focused on elements of long-term recovery and community resilience following a catastrophic hurricane. Working in interdisciplinary teams, students undertook a scenario analysis exercise in which they use knowledge gained from the readings and lectures to envision how Port St. Joe not only recovers from Hurricane Michael but builds back better and more equitably and resiliently than before. From this scenario analysis exercise, students will develop alternative policy, design, infrastructure, and communication paths that this coastal city might pursue to address several discrete challenges and will assess the efficacy of these various paths.

During spring break, students spent five intensive days in Port St. Joe visiting relevant sites and hearing from experts in a variety of fields to inform their understanding and their scenario analysis and associated work product.

Faculty Core Team: Jeff Carney, Architecture; Cleary Larkin, Architecture; Tim Mclendon, Law; Corene Matyas, CLAS; Alyson Larson, Journalism; David Prevatt, Engineering; Thomas Ruppert, Law; and additional invited speakers

Course Admin and Coordinator: Carolyn Cox, Florida Climate Institute

Final Adaptation Strategy Proposals

Team 1 – Regional

Team Proposal (PDF)

Online presentation: https://spark.adobe.com/page/aEBUo87XjD3ga/

Team 2 – Park System

Team Proposal (PDF)

Online presentation: https://spark.adobe.com/page/R3LIhRlc9GIPE/

Team 3 – Urban Design

Team Proposal (PDF)

Online presentation: https://spark.adobe.com/page/yx9EygDU6LARF/

Team 4 – Housing and Neighborhoods

Team Proposal (PDF)

Online presentation: https://spark.adobe.com/page/vQwDv3094iqXX/

The Southeast Navigator Network

Project Overview

The Climate Ready America Southeast Navigator Network is assisting 72 communities in four states -  Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina - that have recently received Community Disaster Resilience Zone (CDRZ) designations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This program, with foundation support, has established "Navigators" in each state to serve as trusted partners for CDRZ communities in their state and help them take advantage of funding sources, identify capacity building opportunities, and secure technical support necessary to develop strategies that lead to tangible resilience benefits in their communities.

In Florida, this program is working with all 32 CDRZ-designated communities.

View a promo video about the Florida Navigator program HERE.

Learn more about the Southeast Navigator Network HERE.