A new paper "Can Florida’s Coast Survive Its Reliance on Development?Fiscal Vulnerability and Funding Woes Under Sea Level Rise" is now out in JAPA, open access. How much will sea level rise will affect local government revenues in Florida? A LOT: 211 municipalities, $619 billion in assessed property values that currently contribute $2.36 billion. Some 64 municipalities have 50%+ of revenues sitting within 6.5 feet of current sea levels. We pair our spatial analysis with a statewide survey of coastal planners and show that there is no relationship between the level of fiscal risk & prioritization of adaptation planning.
Big picture takeaways:
- fiscal risk from climate change is real but ignored
- fiscal policy - including reliance on property tax - constrains creative solutions
- market responses will likely result in resilient upland enclaves and vulnerable, poorer coastal towns.
What to do?
- recognize fiscal risk and assess it like we do with physical infrastructure and social vulnerability. We need a national fiscal climate risk dataset!
- enable regional land and revenue sharing. NH's SB285 allowing coastal towns to merge due to SLR is a start
- promote cooperative strategies like community land trusts and limited equity cooperative housing to help lower-income groups avoid displacement and adapt
