Use of Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Climate Forecasts and Predictions for Public Water Supply Planning

Contact Person: Graham, Wendy

Collaborators: J. W. Jones, C. Martinez

Institutions: University of Florida

Funding Agency: Tampa Bay Water

Start: April 2007 End: December 2010

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Water

Abstract: The aim of this project is to characterize the value, uncertainties and risks in South West Florida associated with the use of multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for water resource planning. South West Florida, which includes the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, arguably has the most intense competition for water resources among urban, agricultural and ecological users, as well as significant vulnerability to floods, droughts, and and long-term climate change. The major water resource decision makers in this area are Tampa Bay Water, the largest public water supplier in the region, and the South West Florida Water Management District, which has the responsibility of issuing permits to local and regional governments, agriculture, and other users of surface and aquifer water sources. In this research we will develop and implement a prototype modeling system that provides multi-decadal climate forecasts and predictions for use in Tampa Bay Water's water resource decision making processes. A variety of dynamical and statistical Global Climate Model (GCM) downscaling techniques will be developed and evaluated for the Tampa Bay Region. The most successful techniques will be used to drive Tampa Bay Water's Integrated Hydrologic Model to determine potential impacts of multi-decadal climate varaibility and climate change on water supply reliability in the region.

The Florida Climate Institute (FCI) is a multi-disciplinary network of national and international research and public organizations, scientists, and individuals concerned with achieving a better understanding of climate variability and change.