The Ecological Conservation Application Area (formerly Ecological Forecasting) is the source of this program element. The Ecological Conservation Application Area promotes the synergistic use of Earth observations, in situ observations, and models to analyze and forecast changes that affect ecosystems and to develop effective management strategies. Target end user communities are natural resource managers (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater) and, in particular, those involved in conservation and ecosystem management. The Ecological Conservation Application Area supports the development, improvement, and application of predictive tools - with associated uncertainties - for assessing alternative approaches and designing effective decision support strategies. The Ecological Conservation Application Area applies current scientific understanding and modeling capabilities to determine how ecosystems and their components (e.g., species and genes) are changing/likely to change over time and supports organizations applying that knowledge and information in decision making.