Abstract: Of the approximately 50,000 nonnative species that have been introduced into the United States, nearly 4,600 of them are classified as harmful invasive species (Pimentel et al., 2000; Corn et al., 2002). These organisms have caused major economic and environmental damages to the tune of $120 billion per year (Pimentel, Zuniga, and Robinson, 2005). Invasive species have also been found to negatively impact human well-being (Jones, 2017) and to induce trophic cascades (Walsh, Carpenter, and Vander Zanden, 2016). The annual toll inflicted by invasive species to U.S. agriculture is significant: Pest insects cause an estimated $13 billion in crop losses on top of the $1.2 billion farmers spend in insecticides, while weeds cause an estimated reduction of 12% in crop yields ($33 billion in production losses) despite $3 billion spent on herbicides each year (Pimentel et al., 2000). Similarly, invasive forest pests cause nearly $5 billion in damages and losses throughout the United States, including $2.25 billion in costs to governments, $2.55 billion in costs to homeowners, and $152 million in losses to timber producers (Aukema et al., 2011). In the past 40 years, biological invaders and the risk associated with them have increased mainly due to rapid human population growth and mobility coupled with radical alteration of ecosystems across the globe. In addition, more goods and materials are being traded between nations than ever before, creating opportunities for unintentional introductions (Perrings et al., 2002; Evans, 2003; Alvarez, 2016). Recent analyses on invasion threats indicate that the level of damages to agriculture worldwide is likely to increase, with major food-producing nations such as the United States, Canada, China, Argentina, Australia, and South Africa among the most threatened nations (Paini et al., 2016). While government agencies have developed guidance documents with specific recommendations for early detection and rapid response (National Invasive Species Council, 2016; U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016) and some international agreements mention invasive species (Lodge et al., 2016), there are no clear science-based national policies to deal with invasive species in the United States (Mhina et al., 2016). Instead, response efforts have been established on a case-by-case basis, and policy makers and stakeholders play a big role in deciding which invasions are targeted for control or eradication and when those efforts are to take place. Here we offer evidence that the economic costs associated with invasive species is in large part determined by the response time between arrival of a pest and the beginning of eradication or control efforts. To make our case, we first discuss the three phases of a biological invasion and the main strategies—in terms of response time—that policy makers have followed to deal with the threat. We also present a review of representative biological invasions that have affected Florida’s agriculture industry, categorized by the invasion phase in which eradication efforts were implemented. Finally, we discuss policy implications and recommendations.

Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Abstract: Climate change is acknowledged as being a crucial determinant of public health. The United States is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters as a result of climate change activity, influencing the ways federal, state, and local governments are addressing the growing issue. Individuals who are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather, namely the poor, the elderly/disabled, children, prisoners, and substance abusers have experienced heightened levels of mental, emotional, and bodily stress due to natural disaster exposure. Researchers from a variety of disciplines, public health, social science, and environmental studies, in particular, are examining how natural disasters are impacting mental and physical health functioning while noting the demographic factors leaving certain groups more susceptible to harm. A systematic literature review was conducted on the past 12 years of research that examined natural disaster-related experiences and psychological and physiological health outcomes on populations who are more vulnerable to adverse weather impacts. It was found that the mental and physical health of marginalized populations during and after a natural disaster were elevated and/or exacerbated by circumstances pertaining to the weather event and the lack of disaster-response actions. It was also found that fostering social capital is a way to combat stressors in disadvantaged communities. It is imperative that clinicians and policy makers confront the issue of climate change and natural disasters, developing relief efforts and preventative measures to secure the well-being of underserved groups who may not have many resources at their disposal.

Abstract: Rich geochemical datasets generated over the past 30 years have provided fine-scale resolution on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) coastal hypoxic (</= 2 mg of O2 L-1) zone. In contrast, little is known about microbial community structure and activity in the hypoxic zone despite the implication that microbial respiration is responsible for forming low dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions. Here, we hypothesized that the extent of the hypoxic zone is a driver in determining microbial community structure, and in particular, the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA). Samples collected across the shelf for two consecutive hypoxic seasons in July 2013 and 2014 were analyzed using 16S rRNA gene sequencing, oligotyping, microbial co-occurrence analysis, and quantification of thaumarchaeal 16S rRNA and archaeal ammonia-monooxygenase (amoA) genes. In 2014 Thaumarchaeota were enriched and inversely correlated with DO while Cyanobacteria, Acidimicrobiia, and Proteobacteria where more abundant in oxic samples compared to hypoxic. Oligotyping analysis of Nitrosopumilus 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that one oligotype was significantly inversely correlated with DO in both years. Oligotyping analysis revealed single nucleotide variation among all Nitrosopumilaceae, including Nitrosopumilus 16S rRNA gene sequences, with one oligotype possibly being better adapted to hypoxia. We further provide evidence that in the hypoxic zone of both year 2013 and 2014, low DO concentrations and high Thaumarchaeota abundances influenced microbial co-occurrence patterns. Taken together, the data demonstrated that the extent of hypoxic conditions could potentially drive patterns in microbial community structure, with two years of data revealing the annual nGOM hypoxic zone to be emerging as a low DO adapted AOA hotspot.

Abstract: Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017-2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 +/- 0.3mm yr(-1) and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr(-2) over 1993-present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993-present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005-present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr(-1) (1 sigma). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level.

Abstract: Autoregressive logistic regression models have been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for statistical simulation of spatial patterns in climate and meteorology fields. In this paper we introduce a statistical framework for the simulation of ocean current patterns based on the autoregressive logistic regression models, and apply it to the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. The statistical model is forced by three autoregressive terms, the wind stress curl in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Caribbean Sea, and the sea level pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic. It is used to replicate the bi-weekly historical sequence of 8 Loop Current patterns, obtained from a 24-year altimetry derived dataset. The model reproduces the inter-annual and intra-annual variability of the original time series, showing notable fitting capacity. A point-by-point comparison between the actual and simulated pattern series confirms the capability of the model in analysing the evolution of ocean current patterns. The predictive skill of the model is also explored, and the preliminary forecast (up to 3 months) results are encouraging. The presented statistical framework may find more practical applications in the future, such as the generation of statistically sound climate-based oceanographic scenarios for risk analyses, and the mid-term probabilistic prediction of ocean current patterns.

Abstract: Long considered ground zero for global climate change in the United States, Florida presents the perfect case study for disaster risk and prevention. Building on the idea that disasters are produced by historical and contemporary social processes as well as natural phenomena, Amanda D. Concha-Holmes and Anthony Oliver-Smith present a collection of ethnographic case studies that examine the social and environmental effects of Florida’s public and private sector development policies. Contributors to Disasters in Paradise explore how these practices have increased the vulnerability of Floridians to hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, frosts, and forest fires.

Abstract: Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.

Abstract: Annual and seasonal water variability is predicted to intensify due to climate change. River basins lacking institutional capacity, such as treaties, to deal with environmental change may experience political tensions. Using the 1948-2008 country dyads event data from the Basins at Risk project, this paper investigates whether basins governed by treaties witness less tensions and/or more cooperation over shared water relative to those basins not governed by treaties. It also evaluates basins pre- and post-treaty enactment. The results provide only limited support for the claim that the presence of a treaty does in fact promote cooperation, but provide stronger support for the claim that the number of agreements between riparians enhances cooperation particularly when taking into consideration water variability. This variable is significantly and positively correlated with increased cooperation - a finding that is robust across different specifications controlling for a broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables. This may indicate that successive treaties successfully address some of the shortcomings of their predecessors. Importantly, when disaggregating conflictive and cooperative events, the research does not find support for the claim that treaties or number of treaties reduce conflict. This may highlight the importance of the need to treat conflict and cooperation individually and not simply as opposite poles of a single spectrum.

Abstract: Accelerated sea level rise was observed along the U.S. eastern seaboard south of Cape Hatteras during 2010-2015 with rates 5 times larger than the global average for the same time period. Simultaneously, sea levels decreased rapidly north of Cape Hatteras. In this study, we show that accelerated sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was predominantly caused by a similar to 1 degrees C (0.2 degrees C/year) warming of the Florida Current during 2010-2015 that was linked to large-scale changes in the Atlantic Warm Pool. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was caused by an increase in atmospheric pressure combined with shifting wind patterns, with a small contribution from cooling of the water column over the continental shelf. Results presented here emphasize that planning and adaptation efforts may benefit from a more thorough assessment of sea level changes induced by regional processes. Plain Language Summary During 2010-2015, sea level rose rapidly along the U.S. East Coast between Key West and Cape Hatteras, causing extensive flooding to large urban areas such as Miami. Simultaneously, sea level was observed to decline north of Cape Hatteras at an accelerated rate. Here we investigate what caused the rapid sea level changes recorded during 2010-2015 at the U.S. East Coast. In this study, we show that sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by the warming of waters carried by the Florida Current during 2010-2015, which can raise coastal sea level through thermal expansion of the water column. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by changes in atmospheric conditions, such as by an increase in atmospheric pressure, which affect sea level due to variations in the overall weight of the atmosphere over a certain location, and by changing wind conditions that can pile up, or push ocean water away from the coast.