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Hua, W., Zhou, L., Chen, H., Nicholson, S. E., Raghavendra, A., & Jiang, Y. (2016). Possible causes of the Central Equatorial African long-term drought. Environ. Res. Lett., 11(12), 124002.
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Hussain, J., Khaliq, T., Ahmad, A., Akhter, J., & Asseng, S. (2018). Wheat Responses to Climate Change and Its Adaptations: A Focus on Arid and Semi-arid Environment. Int J Environ Res, 12(1), 117–126.
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Infanti, J. M., Kirtman, B. P., Aumen, N. G., Stamm, J., & Polsky, C. (2020). Aligning Climate Models With Stakeholder Needs: Advances in Communicating Future Rainfall Uncertainties for South Florida Decision Makers. Earth and Space Science, 7(7).
Abstract: Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, "Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration," highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as "climate data users") need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate-model simulations based on user-defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a "decision matrix" that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high-resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.
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Johansen, J. L., Steffensen, J. F., & Jones, G. P. (2015). Winter temperatures decrease swimming performance and limit distributions of tropical damselfishes. Conserv Physiol, 3(1), cov039.
Abstract: Coral reefs within 10 degrees of the equator generally experience <= 3 degrees C seasonal variation in water temperature. Ectotherms that have evolved in these conditions are therefore expected to exhibit narrow thermal optima and be very sensitive to the greater thermal variability (>6 degrees C) experienced at higher latitudes (>= 10 degrees N/S). The impact of increased thermal variability on the fitness and distribution of thermally sensitive reef ectotherms is currently unknown. Here, we examine site-attached planktivorous coral reef damselfishes that rely on their physiological capacity to swim and forage in the water column year round. We focus on 10 species spanning four evolutionarily distinct genera from a region of the Great Barrier Reef that experiences >= 6 degrees C difference between seasons. Four ecologically important indicators showed reduced performance during the winter low (23 degrees C) compared with the summer peak (29 degrees C), with effect sizes varying among species and genera, as follows: (i) the energy available for activity (aerobic scope) was reduced by 35-45% in five species and three genera; (ii) the energetically most efficient swimming speed was reduced by 17% across all species; and (iii) the maximal critical swimming speed and (iv) the gait transition speed (the swimming mode predominantly used for foraging) were reduced by 16-42% in six species spanning all four genera. Comparisons with field surveys within and across latitudes showed that species-specific distributions were strongly correlated with these performance indicators. Species occupy habitats where they can swim faster than prevailing habitat currents year round, and >95% of individuals were observed only in habitats where the gait transition speed can be maintained at or above habitat currents. Thermal fluctuation at higher latitudes appears to reduce performance as well as the possible distribution of species and genera within and among coral reef habitats. Ultimately, thermal variability across latitudes may progressively cause sublethal changes to species performance and lead to a contraction of biogeographical range.
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Katsaros, K. B., A. Bentamy, M. Bourassa, N. Ebuchi, J. Gower, W. T. Liu, and S. Vignudelli. (2011). Climate Data Issues from an Oceanographic Remote Sensing Perspective. In Remote Sensing of the Changing Oceans (pp. 7–32). Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
Abstract: In this chapter we review several climatologically important variables
with a history of observation from spaceborne platforms. These include sea surface
temperature and wind vectors, altimetric estimates of sea surface height, energy and
water vapor fluxes at the sea surface, precipitation over the ocean, and ocean color.
We then discuss possible improvements in sampling for climate and climate change
definition. Issues of consistency of different data sources, archiving and distribution
of these types of data are discussed. The practical prospect of immediate international
coordination through the concept of virtual constellations is discussed and
applauded.
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Keellings, D. (2016). Evaluation of downscaled CMIP5 model skill in simulating daily maximum temperature over the southeastern United States. Int. J. Climatol., 36(12), 4172–4180.
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Koch, M., Bowes, G., Ross, C., & Zhang, X. - H. (2013). Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae. Glob Change Biol, 19(1), 103–132.
Abstract: Although seagrasses and marine macroalgae (macro-autotrophs) play critical ecological roles in reef, lagoon, coastal and open-water ecosystems, their response to ocean acidification (OA) and climate change is not well understood. In this review, we examine marine macro-autotroph biochemistry and physiology relevant to their response to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], carbon dioxide [CO2], and lower carbonate [CO32-] and pH. We also explore the effects of increasing temperature under climate change and the interactions of elevated temperature and [CO2]. Finally, recommendations are made for future research based on this synthesis. A literature review of >100 species revealed that marine macro-autotroph photosynthesis is overwhelmingly C3 (= 85%) with most species capable of utilizing HCO3-; however, most are not saturated at current ocean [DIC]. These results, and the presence of CO2-only users, lead us to conclude that photosynthetic and growth rates of marine macro-autotrophs are likely to increase under elevated [CO2] similar to terrestrial C3 species. In the tropics, many species live close to their thermal limits and will have to up-regulate stress-response systems to tolerate sublethal temperature exposures with climate change, whereas elevated [CO2] effects on thermal acclimation are unknown. Fundamental linkages between elevated [CO2] and temperature on photorespiration, enzyme systems, carbohydrate production, and calcification dictate the need to consider these two parameters simultaneously. Relevant to calcifiers, elevated [CO2] lowers net calcification and this effect is amplified by high temperature. Although the mechanisms are not clear, OA likely disrupts diffusion and transport systems of H+ and DIC. These fluxes control micro-environments that promote calcification over dissolution and may be more important than CaCO3 mineralogy in predicting macroalgal responses to OA. Calcareous macroalgae are highly vulnerable to OA, and it is likely that fleshy macroalgae will dominate in a higher CO2 ocean; therefore, it is critical to elucidate the research gaps identified in this review.
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Laureano-Rosario, A. E., Garcia-Rejon, J. E., Gomez-Carro, S., Farfan-Ale, J. A., & Muller-Karger, F. E. (2017). Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature. Acta Tropica, 172, 50–57.
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Leffler, A. J., Klein, E. S., Oberbauer, S. F., & Welker, J. M. (2016). Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra. Oecologia, 181(1), 287–297.
Abstract: Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.
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Lemoine, N. P., Capdevielle, J. N., & Parker, J. D. (2015). Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus) development. PeerJ, 3, e1293.
Abstract: Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus) larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under 'Ambient' and 'Warmed' conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 degrees C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated.
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Liao, W., Menge, D. N. L., Lichstein, J. W., & Ángeles-Pérez, G. (2017). Global climate change will increase the abundance of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing trees in much of North America. Glob Change Biol, 23(11), 4777–4787.
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Lin, H., Fan, Z., Shi, L., Arain, A., McCaughey, H., Billesbach, D., et al. (2017). The Cooling Trend of Canopy Temperature During the Maturation, Succession, and Recovery of Ecosystems. Ecosystems, 20(2), 406–415.
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Liu, B., Liu, L., Asseng, S., Zou, X., Li, J., Cao, W., et al. (2016). Modelling the effects of heat stress on post-heading durations in wheat: A comparison of temperature response routines. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 222, 45–58.
Abstract: Crop yield simulations are highly correlated to reproductive phase duration simulations, which are often affected by heat stress. In this study, we evaluated four widely used temperature response routines of wheat phenology (Bilinear, Sin, Beta, and Trapezoidal routines) to simulate heat stress effects on post heading durations with datasets from four years of environment-controlled phytotron experiments and multi-year field experiments across the main wheat production region in China. Significant reductions in post-heading duration were observed with increasing heat stress in phytotron experiments. A comparison of these temperature routines imbedded in the WheatGrow model showed that three of the routines could not predict post-heading durations under heat stress, while the Trapezoidal routine tended to overestimate high temperature impacts. Therefore, the three routines that could not simulate heat stress effects were extended by a senescence acceleration function. This function significantly improved the post-heading duration simulations under heat stress, regardless of the original temperature routine. However, the temperature threshold of initiating the senescence acceleration function varied depending on the original temperature response routine, between 27.3 and 30.1 degrees C. A new genotypic coefficient representing a cultivar-specific sensitivity to heat stress was introduced and ranged from 1.4 to 5.7 times of none heat-affected senescence per day. When evaluating the three temperature response routines linked with the added senescence acceleration function with independent phenology data (130 measurements), resulted in an average RMSE of 2.2 days for post-heading duration. The improved post-heading duration simulation is important for simulating current year-to-year yield variability due to frequent heat events, and it is even more critical for climate change impact assessments.
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Liu, L., Wang, X., Lajeunesse, M. J., Miao, G., Piao, S., Wan, S., et al. (2016). A cross-biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes. Glob Change Biol, 22(4), 1394–1405.
Abstract: Soil respiration (R-s) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although R-s has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of R-s will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis R-s data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, R-s,R- and the temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in R-s and Q(10) were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and R-s values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q(10) values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and R-s by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q(10). Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and R-s tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of R-s and Q(10) were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these findings, we urge future studies to focus on manipulating the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of precipitation with an aim to improving our ability to predict and model feedback between R-s and climate change.
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Liu, Y., & Minnett, P. J. (2015). Evidence linking satellite-derived sea-surface temperature signals to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Remote Sensing of Environment, 169, 150–162.
Abstract: This study explores an application of satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to climate studies by focusing on a connection with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we focus on SSTs from the advanced very high resolution radiometer and report a 99% significant correlation between the changes of in situ measured AMOC transport and the variation of 1-month leading SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic region (45 degrees N-70 degrees N) based on analyses of an 85-month period. The leading mode of the singular value decomposition analysis of SST and Sea Level Pressure (SLP) for 31 years (1981/12-2012/12) shows an apparent North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing on the SST fields. Specifically, the 551 and SLP one-month phase lag covariance is notable at temporal scales of 4 to 11 months. After removing the first order component of the NAO, the residual SST (RESST) provides better estimates of the AMOC on a shorter time scale than the SST. This is because that RESST is less likely to be affected by the local SLP on these time scales. The high correlation is primarily between the RESST and variations of the geostrophic Upper Mid-Ocean transport component of the AMOC. The 31-year RESST time series in the North Atlantic subpolar region is also significantly correlated with the Gulf Stream path SST anomalies with a one-month lead, implying a fast signal transport from the subpolar North Atlantic to the Gulf Stream. A similar fast adjustment signal is also found in 500-year control simulations of the GFDL model CM2.1. These results indicate a prospective capability of satellite-derived SSTs to predict AMOC variability.
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Liu, Y., & Minnett, P. J. (2016). Sampling errors in satellite-derived infrared sea-surface temperatures. Part I: Global and regional MODIS fields. Remote Sensing of Environment, 177, 48–64.
Abstract: Long time series of accurate Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are needed to resolve subtle signals that may be indicative of a changing climate. Motivated by the stringent requirements on SST accuracy required for Climate Data Records (CDR) we quantify sampling errors in satellite SSTs. Infrared sensors, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), have sampling errors caused by incomplete coverage primarily due to clouds and inter-swath gaps (gaps between successive swaths/orbits). Unlike retrieval errors, the sampling errors are introduced when calculating mean values and in generating gap-free SST fields. We generate MODIS-sampled SST fields by superimposing MODIS cloud masks on top of the Multi-scale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) SST field for the same day. Based on the MODIS-sampled fields, we calculate sampling errors at different temporal and spatial resolutions to examine the impacts at different scales. Our results indicate that sampling errors are significant, more so in the high latitudes, especially the Arctic. The 30 degrees N-30 degrees S zonal band is found to have the smallest errors; a notable exception is the persistent negative errors found in the Tropical Instability Wave area, where the mesoscale ocean-atmosphere interaction leads to a more frequently satellite sampling above the cold sections of the wave area. The global mean sampling error is generally positive and increases approximately exponentially with missing data fraction at a fixed averaging interval, while error variability is mainly controlled by SST variability. Areas with persistent cloud cover have large sampling errors in temporally averaged SSTs. We conclude that the sampling error can be an important or even dominant component of the error budget of mean and gap-free SST fields. Climate data generation and interpretation of satellite-derived SST CDRs and their application must be conducted with due regard to the sampling error.
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Lolavar, A., & Wyneken, J. (2015). Effect of rainfall on loggerhead turtle nest temperatures, sand temperatures and hatchling sex. Endang. Species. Res., 28(3), 235–247.
Abstract: Marine turtles deposit their eggs in underground nests where they develop unattended and without parental care. Incubation temperature varies with environmental conditions, including rainfall, sun/shade and sand type, and affects developmental rates, hatch and emergence success, and embryonic sex. We documented (1) rainfall and sand temperature relationships and (2) rainfall, nest temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at a loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting beach in Boca Raton, Florida, USA, across the 2010 to 2013 nesting seasons. Rainfall data collected concurrently with sand temperatures at different depths showed that light rainfall affected surface sand; effects of the heaviest rainfall events tended to lower sand temperatures but the temperature fluctuations were small once upper nest depths were reached. This is important in understanding the potential impacts of rainfall as a modifier of nest temperatures, as such changes can be quite small. Nest temperature profiles were synchronized with rainfall data from weather services to identify relationships with hatchling sex ratios. The sex of each turtle was verified laparoscopically to provide empirical measures of sex ratio for the nest and nesting beach. The majority of hatchlings in the samples were female, suggesting that across the 4 seasons most nest temperatures were not sufficiently cool to produce males. However, in the early portion of the nesting season and in wet years, nest temperatures were cooler, and significantly more males hatched.
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Lolavar, A., & Wyneken, J. (2017). Experimental assessment of the effects of moisture on loggerhead sea turtle hatchling sex ratios. Zoology, 123, 64–70.
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Ma, J., Foltz, G. R., Soden, B. J., Huang, G., He, J., & Dong, C. (2016). Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming? Environ. Res. Lett., 11(12), 124012.
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Mainwaring, M. C., Barber, I., Deeming, D. C., Pike, D. A., Roznik, E. A., & Hartley, I. R. (2017). Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses. Biol Rev, 92(4), 1991–2002.
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