Srifa, A., Phlips, E. J., Cichra, M. F., & Hendrickson, J. C. (2016). Phytoplankton dynamics in a subtropical lake dominated by cyanobacteria: cyanobacteria 'Like it Hot' and sometimes dry. Aquat Ecol, 50(2), 163–174.
Abstract: An 18-year data set (1993-2010) of water column variables from Lake George, Florida (USA), was used to examine relationships between the phytoplankton community (composition and biomass) and physical variables (temperature and hydrologic discharge rates). Lake George is a large shallow eutrophic lake located in the subtropical environment of north Florida and is subject to frequent and intense blooms of cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria dominated the phytoplankton community during warmer months of the year (May-September). Other phytoplankton taxa increased their relative contributions to phytoplankton biomass during the colder months (November-March), when cyanobacterial biomass was low. Increased discharge rates during the peak flushing season (September-December) were correlated to diminished cyanobacterial biomass despite elevated nutrient levels. Analysis of time series data revealed higher warm season peaks in cyanobacteria biomass during years of relatively low discharge, whereas other phytoplankton groups showed the opposite trend with peaks during the colder months. These observations indicate a need for lake management strategies that consider both hydrologic and nutrient loadings within the context of possible future changes in temperature and rainfall regimes.
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Stefanova, L., Sura, P., & Griffin, M. (2013). Quantifying the non-Gaussianity of observed wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures in the Southeast United States. J. Climate, 26(3), 838–850.
Abstract: This paper examines the statistics of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature at weather stations in the Southeast United States as a function of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase. A limited number of studies address how ENSO and/or AO affect United States� daily � as opposed to monthly or seasonal � temperature averages. The details of the effect of ENSO or AO on the higher order statistics for wintertime daily minimum and maximum temperatures have not been clearly documented.
Quality-controlled daily observations collected from 1960 to 2009 from 272 National Weather Service�s Cooperative Observing Network stations throughout Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and South and North Carolina are used to calculate the first four statistical moments of minimum and maximum daily temperature distributions. It is found that, over the Southeast, winter minimum temperatures have higher variability than maximum temperatures, and La Niña winters have greater variability of both minimum and maximum temperatures. With the exception of Florida�s peninsula, minimum temperatures are positively skewed, while maximum temperatures are negatively skewed. Stations in peninsular Florida exhibit negative skewness for both maximum and minimum temperatures. During the relatively warmer winters associated with either a La Niña or AO+, negative skewnesses are exacerbated and positive skewnesses are reduced. To a lesser extent, the converse is true of El Niño and AO-. ENSO and AO are also shown to have a statistically significant effect on the change of kurtosis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the domain.
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Subedi, S. C., Bhattarai, K. R., & Chauudhary, R. P. (2015). Distribution pattern of vascular plant species of mountains in Nepal and their fate against global warming. J. Mt. Sci., 12(6), 1345–1354.
Abstract: This study aims to find the altitudinal distribution pattern of vascular plant species reported from high mountain of Nepal (Manang) along the whole Himalayan elevation gradient, and evaluate their fate against climate change. Data was gathered from multiple sources, field investigations, literatures, and herbarium specimens. Altogether, 303 vascular plant species were reported from Manang. We used a published data to calculate distribution range of each species by interpolating between its upper and lower elevation limits. The relationship between elevation and species richness is elucidated by generalized linear model. The consequence of global warming upon Manang's vascular plant species was estimated based on projected temperature change for next century and adiabatic lapse rate along the elevation gradient of the Himalayas. The vascular plant species richness has a unimodel relationship with elevation along the whole elevation gradient of Nepal as well as in three biogeographical regions of Nepal. Vascular plants of Manang are found distributed from low land Terai to high alpine regions of Nepal and their elevation distribution range varies from 200 to 4700 m. Out of 303 vascular plants of Manang, only seven species might be affected if temperature increase by 1.5A degrees C, whereas at least 70 species will be affected with Received: 3 March 2015 Accepted: 17 July 2015 5A degrees C temperature increased. However, the majority of species (233 species) have wider distribution range (> 1000 m) and more than 5A degrees C temperature tolerance range, thus they are likely to be less affected from global warming by the end of 21(st) century.
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Tahsin, S., Medeiros, S. C., Hooshyar, M., & Singh, A. (2017). Optical Cloud Pixel Recovery via Machine Learning. Remote Sensing, 9(6), 527.
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Talley, L. D., Feely, R. A., Sloyan, B. M., Wanninkhof, R., Baringer, M. O., Bullister, J. L., et al. (2016). Changes in Ocean Heat, Carbon Content, and Ventilation: A Review of the First Decade of GO-SHIP Global Repeat Hydrography. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 8(1), 185–215.
Abstract: Global ship-based programs, with highly accurate, full water column physical and biogeochemical observations repeated decadally since the 1970s, provide a crucial resource for documenting ocean change. The ocean, a central component of Earth's climate system, is taking up most of Earth's excess anthropogenic heat, with about 19% of this excess in the abyssal ocean beneath 2,000 m, dominated by Southern Ocean warming. The ocean also has taken up about 27% of anthropogenic carbon, resulting in acidification of the upper ocean. Increased stratification has resulted in a decline in oxygen and increase in nutrients in the Northern Hemisphere thermocline and an expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones. Southern Hemisphere thermocline oxygen increased in the 2000s owing to stronger wind forcing and ventilation. The most recent decade of global hydrography has mapped dissolved organic carbon, a large, bioactive reservoir, for the first time and quantified its contribution to export production (similar to 20%) and deep-ocean oxygen utilization. Ship-based measurements also show that vertical diffusivity increases from a minimum in the thermocline to a maximum within the bottom 1,500 m, shifting our physical paradigm of the ocean's overturning circulation.
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Tesla, B., Demakovsky, L. R., Mordecai, E. A., Ryan, S. J., Bonds, M. H., Ngonghala, C. N., et al. (2018). Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models. Proc Biol Sci, 285(1884).
Abstract: Temperature is a strong driver of vector-borne disease transmission. Yet, for emerging arboviruses we lack fundamental knowledge on the relationship between transmission and temperature. Current models rely on the untested assumption that Zika virus responds similarly to dengue virus, potentially limiting our ability to accurately predict the spread of Zika. We conducted experiments to estimate the thermal performance of Zika virus (ZIKV) in field-derived Aedes aegypti across eight constant temperatures. We observed strong, unimodal effects of temperature on vector competence, extrinsic incubation period and mosquito survival. We used thermal responses of these traits to update an existing temperature-dependent model to infer temperature effects on ZIKV transmission. ZIKV transmission was optimized at 29 degrees C, and had a thermal range of 22.7 degrees C-34.7 degrees C. Thus, as temperatures move towards the predicted thermal optimum (29 degrees C) owing to climate change, urbanization or seasonality, Zika could expand north and into longer seasons. By contrast, areas that are near the thermal optimum were predicted to experience a decrease in overall environmental suitability. We also demonstrate that the predicted thermal minimum for Zika transmission is 5 degrees C warmer than that of dengue, and current global estimates on the environmental suitability for Zika are greatly over-predicting its possible range.
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Tezak, B. M., Guthrie, K., & Wyneken, J. (2017). An Immunohistochemical Approach to Identify the Sex of Young Marine Turtles: IHC Approach to Identify the Sex of Turtles. Anat. Rec., 300(8), 1512–1518.
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Tynan, S., Dutton, A., Eggins, S., & Opdyke, B. (2014). Oxygen isotope records of the Australian flat oyster (Ostrea angasi) as a potential temperature archive. Marine Geology, 357, 195–209.
Abstract: The response of the oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) in shells of the Australian native flat oyster Ostrea angasi to changes in water temperature has been assessed using growth experiments conducted for one year at two locations on the east coast of Australia. The analysed δ18O of the oyster shells (δ18Oshell) closely follows the predicted oyster shell δ18O constructed from measured δ18O in the water (δ18Owater) and water temperature.
Influxes of freshwater that occur in the estuarine habitats of O. angasi can modify the δ18Owater, and consequently δ18Oshell. Salinity fluctuations can also cause interruptions to shell growth in this species. This can cause overestimated temperatures in O. angasi δ18Oshell temperature reconstructions.
A δ18Oshell–temperature calibration was established for O. angasi, yielding the relationship: T°C = 13.97 − (3.57δ18Oshell − δ18Owater) + (0.17δ18Oshell − δ18Owater)2, n = 79, R2 = 0.79, which, within the experimental uncertainties of the data, is similar to other published biogenic carbonate paleotemperature equations.
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Uejio, C. K., Morano, L. H., Jung, J., Kintziger, K., Jagger, M., Chalmers, J., et al. (2018). Occupational heat exposure among municipal workers. Int Arch Occup Environ Health, 91(6), 705–715.
Abstract: PURPOSE: Outdoor workers face elevated and prolonged heat exposures and have limited access to air-conditioned spaces. This study's overarching research aim is to increase knowledge of municipal worker heat exposure and adaptation practices. The study's sub-objectives are: (1) quantifying exposure misclassification from estimating personal heat exposure from the official weather station; (2) surveying worker's knowledge and practices to adapt to extreme heat; and (3) relating heat exposure and adaptation practices to self-reported thermal comfort. METHODS: Participants wore a personal heat exposure sensor over 7 days from June 1st to July 3rd, 2015 in Tallahassee, Florida US. Next, participants confirmed the days that they wore the sensor and reported their daily thermal comfort and heat adaptations. Finally, participants completed an extreme heat knowledge, attitudes, and practices survey. RESULTS: Some participants (37%) experienced hotter and more humid conditions (heat index > 2) than the weather station. The most common heat adaptations were staying hydrated (85%), wearing a hat (46%), and seeking shade (40%). During work hours, higher temperatures increased the odds (odds ratio: 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.41, p = 0.016) of a participant feeling too hot. Shifting work duty indoors made workers to feel more comfortable (odds ratio: 0.28, 95% confidence interval: 0.11-0.70, p = 0.005). CONCLUSION: In hot and humid climates, everyday, heat exposures continuously challenge the health of outdoor workers.
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Uejio, C. K., Tamerius, J. D., Vredenburg, J., Asaeda, G., Isaacs, D. A., Braun, J., et al. (2016). Summer indoor heat exposure and respiratory and cardiovascular distress calls in New York City, NY, U.S. Indoor Air, 26(4), 594–604.
Abstract: Most extreme heat studies relate outdoor weather conditions to human morbidity and mortality. In developed nations, individuals spend ~90% of their time indoors. This pilot study investigated the indoor environments of people receiving emergency medical care in New York City, NY, U.S., from July to August 2013. The first objective was to determine the relative influence of outdoor conditions as well as patient characteristics and neighborhood sociodemographics on indoor temperature and specific humidity (N = 764). The second objective was to determine whether cardiovascular or respiratory cases experience hotter and more humid indoor conditions as compared to controls. Paramedics carried portable sensors into buildings where patients received care to passively monitor indoor temperature and humidity. The case�control study compared 338 respiratory cases, 291 cardiovascular cases, and 471 controls. Intuitively, warmer and sunnier outdoor conditions increased indoor temperatures. Older patients who received emergency care tended to occupy warmer buildings. Indoor-specific humidity levels quickly adjusted to outdoor conditions. Indoor heat and humidity exposure above a 26 °C threshold increased (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 0.98�2.68, P = 0.056), but not significantly, the proportion of respiratory cases. Indoor heat exposures were similar between cardiovascular cases and controls.
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Ullah, A., Salehnia, N., Kolsoumi, S., Ahmad, A., & Khaliq, T. (2018). Prediction of effective climate change indicators using statistical downscaling approach and impact assessment on pearl millet ( Pennisetum glaucum L.) yield through Genetic Algorithm in Punjab, Pakistan. Ecological Indicators, 90(569-576).
Abstract: Climate change involves long term changes in climate including increase in temperature, elevated CO2 and uneven distribution of rainfall quantity and periodicity. Though daily mean temperature (T-mean) is considered a widely useful index of assessment of climate change, averaging can obscure some of the variations expected in diurnal temperature range (DTR). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of DTR relative to T-mean as a metric for predicting millet yield using a combination of a historical dataset (1980-2010) and two climate model (MIROC5 and GFDL) projections for 2017-2046 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 across two different environments (arid, Layyah and semi-arid, Faisalabad) of Punjab, Pakistan. Provincial datasets of pearl millet yields were collected and checked for an empirical relationship between T-mean, DTR and crop yield. The mean of projections showed increasing DTR relative to baseline in both environments. Projected T-max and T-min were highly correlated (0.90-0.99) for both environments and climate models. MIROC5 predicted T-max and T-min well and GFDL performed efficiently in predicting precipitation by 2046. The data also showed more hot days in future decades and erratic rainfall pattern by 2046 in both environments. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) appeared to be a good approach to assess climate change impact on pearl millet yield in Punjab, Pakistan, predicting negative yield impacts (11-12%) due to future warming. We suggest broadening tests of this method to other cases around the world, with similar climate regimes.
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van Leuken, J. P. G., Swart, A. N., Droogers, P., van Pul, A., Heederik, D., & Havelaar, A. H. (2016). Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis. Aerobiologia, 32(4), 607–617.
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van Woesik, R., & Cacciapaglia, C. W. (2020). Carbonate production of Micronesian reefs suppressed by thermal anomalies and Acanthaster as sea-level rises. PLoS One, 14(11), e0224887.
Abstract: Coral reefs are essential to millions of island inhabitants. Yet, coral reefs are threatened by thermal anomalies associated with climate change and by local disturbances that include land-use change, pollution, and the coral-eating sea star Acanthaster solaris. In combination, these disturbances cause coral mortality that reduce the capacity of reefs to produce enough carbonate to keep up with sea-level rise. This study compared the reef-building capacity of shallow-water inner, patch, and outer reefs in the two islands of Pohnpei and Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. We identified which reefs were likely to keep up with sea-level rise under different climate-change scenarios, and estimated whether there were differences across habitats in the threshold of percentage coral cover at which net carbonate production becomes negative. We also quantified the influence of A. solaris on carbonate production. Whereas the northwestern outer reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae had the highest net rates of carbonate production (18.5 and 16.4 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively), the southeastern outer reefs had the lowest rates of carbonate production (1.2-1.3 and 0.7 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively). The patch reefs of Pohnpei had on average higher net carbonate production rates (9.5 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1) than the inner reefs of both Pohnpei and Kosrae (7.0 and 7.8 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1, respectively). A. solaris were common on Kosrae and caused an average reduction in carbonate production of 0.6 kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1 on Kosraean reefs. Northern outer reefs are the most likely habitats to keep up with sea-level rise in both Pohnpei and Kosrae. Overall, the inner reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae need ~ 5.5% more coral cover to generate the same amount of carbonate as outer reefs. Therefore, inner reefs need special protection from land-use change and local pollution to keep pace with sea-level rise under all climate-change scenarios.
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Verdin, A., Rajagopalan, B., Kleiber, W., Podestá, G., & Bert, F. (2018). A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 835–846.
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Wadgymar, S. M., Ogilvie, J. E., Inouye, D. W., Weis, A. E., & Anderson, J. T. (2018). Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment. New Phytol, 218(2), 517–529.
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Wang, Y., Xu, Y., Khawaja, S., Passey, B. H., Zhang, C., Wang, X., et al. (2013). Diet and environment of a mid-Pliocene fauna from southwestern Himalaya: Paleo-elevation implications. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 376, 43–53.
Abstract: A mid-Pliocene fauna (4.2–3.1 Ma) was recently uncovered in the Zanda (Zhada) Basin in the southwestern Himalaya, at an elevation of about 4200 m above sea level. These fossil materials provide a unique window for examining the linkage among tectonic, climatic and biotic changes. Here we report the results from isotopic analyses of this fauna and of modern herbivores and waters as well as paleo-temperature estimates from the Zanda Basin. The δ13Cδ13C values of enamel samples from modern wild Tibetan asses, and domesticated horses, cows and goats in the area are −9.4±1.8‰−9.4±1.8‰, which indicate a diet comprising predominantly of C3 plants and are consistent with the current dominance of C3 vegetation in the region. The enamel-δ13Cδ13C values of the fossil horses, rhinos, deer, and bovids are −9.6±0.8‰−9.6±0.8‰, indicating that these ancient mammals, like modern herbivores in the area, also fed primarily on C3 vegetation and lived in an environment dominated by C3 plants. The lack of significant C4 plants in the basin suggests that the area had reached high elevations (>2.5 km) by at least the mid-Pliocene. Taking into account the changes in the δ13Cδ13C of atmospheric CO2 in the past, the enamel-δ13Cδ13C values suggest that the average modern-equivalent δ13Cδ13C value of C3 vegetation in the Zanda Basin in the mid-Pliocene was ∼1–2‰∼1–2‰ lower than that of the C3 biomass in the basin today. This would imply a reduction in annual precipitation by about 200–400 mm in the area since then (assuming that the modern View the MathML sourceC3δ13C–precipitation relationship applied to the past). Consistent with this inference from the δ13Cδ13C data, the enamel-δ18Oδ18O data show a significant shift to higher values after the mid-Pliocene, which also suggests a shift in climate to much drier conditions after ∼4–3∼4–3 Ma.
Paleo-temperature estimates derived from a fossil bone-based oxygen isotope temperature proxy as well as the carbonate clumped isotope thermometer for the mid-Pliocene Zanda Basin are higher than the present-day mean annual temperature in the area. After accounting for late Cenozoic global cooling, these paleo-temperature estimates suggest that the paleo-elevation of the Zanda Basin in the mid-Pliocene was similar to or slightly (less than ∼1 km) lower than its present-day elevation, which is consistent with the inference from the δ13Cδ13C data.
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Wangt, Y., He, B., Herath, S., Basnayake, S., & Huang, W. (2014). Climate Change Scenarios Analysis in Coastal Region of Thailand. Journal of Coastal Research, 68, 160–167.
Abstract: The impact of climate change is estimated to be particularly severe in many developing countries, including the coastal zones prone to flooding and drought. As a coastal region, Thailand has been affected by climate change significantly in terms of temperature and rainfall distribution change. In this study, a downscaling study was carried out to identify some climate-related planning parameters for the representative cities in Thailand using the regional climate model. Results indicated that in the study area around the Hat Yai the near future atmosphere temperature will increase about 1 °C to 1.5 °C compared to the present condition. The minimum annual temperature will increase about 0.8 degree from 23 °C to 23.8 °C. It is ranging between 20.8 °C–25 °C. The maximum annual temperature in Hat Yai will increase about 1 degree from 32.6 °C to 33.6 °C. The mean annual temperature will increase about 1 degree from 27.8 °C to 28.8 °C. The temperature will increase largely in summer and rainy season in the future. The near future rainfall is projected to increase in most of seasons, especially during the rainy season which will bring more risk for flood disaster. Furthermore, rainfall pattern and distribution will be also changed in the near future in Songkhla, with more rain to be expected in rainy season.
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Webber, H., White, J. W., Kimball, B. A., Ewert, F., Asseng, S., Eyshi Rezaei, E., et al. (2018). Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions. Field Crops Research, 216, 75–88.
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Weihs, R. R., & Bourassa, M. A. (2014). Modeled diurnally varying sea surface temperatures and their influence on surface heat fluxes. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119(7), 4101–4123.
Abstract: A diurnal warming model is used to create a new data set of global, diurnally varying sea surface temperatures (dSSTs) and surface turbulent heat fluxes over a 5 year period. The magnitude of diurnal warming is primarily a function of low wind speed and net heat flux. Differences between each of the surface turbulent fluxes with and without a diurnally varying SST are examined on hourly, daily, and seasonal time scales. Over a 2 month period, maximum averaged diurnal warming is as large as 0.3°C, and latent heat flux is underestimated by as much as 8 W/m2 in the Indian Ocean. They also exceed roughly 0.7°C and 10 W/m2, respectively, up to 25% of the total daytime in the Atlantic. A best-case approach validation shows the model overestimates peak warming and underestimates the duration of the cycle, though the average error is quite small. The model is tested under a variety of wind speed, solar radiation, and precipitation conditions to examine the impact of potential biases or error in the input data. To test the impact of a positive bias in the wind speeds, diurnal warming magnitudes are recomputed with an adjusted wind under near-neutral conditions. Compared to the original data, diurnal warming can increase by as much as 1.5°C on an hourly scale but generally is <0.06°C. Although precipitation effects on dSSTs are small compared to winds and radiation, the model configuration wrongly causes diurnal warming to increase by precipitation, contrary to the underlying model physics.
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Woodcroft, B. J., Singleton, C. M., Boyd, J. A., Evans, P. N., Emerson, J. B., Zayed, A. A. F., et al. (2018). Genome-centric view of carbon processing in thawing permafrost. Nature, 560(7716), 49–+.
Abstract: As global temperatures rise, large amounts of carbon sequestered in permafrost are becoming available for microbial degradation. Accurate prediction of carbon gas emissions from thawing permafrost is limited by our understanding of these microbial communities. Here we use metagenomic sequencing of 214 samples from a permafrost thaw gradient to recover 1,529 metagenome-assembled genomes, including many from phyla with poor genomic representation. These genomes reflect the diversity of this complex ecosystem, with genus-level representatives for more than sixty per cent of the community. Meta-omic analysis revealed key populations involved in the degradation of organic matter, including bacteria whose genomes encode a previously undescribed fungal pathway for xylose degradation. Microbial and geochemical data highlight lineages that correlate with the production of greenhouse gases and indicate novel syntrophic relationships. Our findings link changing biogeochemistry to specific microbial lineages involved in carbon processing, and provide key information for predicting the effects of climate change on permafrost systems.
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