Butler, W. H., Deyle, R. E., & Mutnansky, C. (2016). Low-Regrets Incrementalism: Land Use Planning Adaptation to Accelerating Sea Level Rise in Floridas Coastal Communities. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 36(3), 319–332.
Abstract: Sea level rise is one of the climate change effects most amenable to adaptation planning as the impacts are familiar and the nature of the phenomenon is unambiguous. Yet, significant uncertainties remain. Using a normative framework of adaptive management and natural hazards planning, we examine how coastal communities in Florida are planning in the face of accelerating sea level rise through analysis of planning documents and interviews with planners. We clarify that communities are taking a low-regrets incremental approach with increasingly progressive measures motivated by confidence in planning intelligence and direct experience with impacts attributable to sea level rise.
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Camp, E. V., Pine III, W. E., Havens, K., Kane, A. S., Walters, C. J., Irani, T., et al. (2015). Collapse of a historic oyster fishery: diagnosing causes and identifying paths toward increased resilience. E&S, 20(3).
Abstract: Diagnosing causal factors of change at the ecosystem level is challenging because multiple drivers often interact at various spatial and temporal scales. We employ an integrated natural and social science approach to assess potential mechanisms leading to the collapse of an estuarine social-ecological system, and recommend future paths to increased system resilience. Our case study is the collapse of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) fishery in Apalachicola Bay, Florida, USA, and the associated impacts on local resource dependent communities. The oyster fishery collapse is the most recent in a series of environmental stressors to this region, which have included hurricanes and tropical storms, drought, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We found it likely that the oyster collapse was not related to contamination from the recent oil spill, but rather to factors affecting oyster recruitment and survival, which may have been mediated by both human, e.g., fishing-related habitat alteration, and environmental, e.g., increased natural mortality from predators and disease, factors. The relative impact of each of these factors is likely to increase in the future because of changing climate and increased demand for fishery, water, and petroleum resources. Successful restoration and persistence of a viable oyster fishery will depend on: (1) implementation of some minimal best management practices, e.g., extensive habitat restoration via shell addition, and some spatial closures to harvest, (2) improving environmental knowledge and promoting episodic learning through enhanced monitoring and experimental management, and (3) continued community engagement necessary to produce adaptable governance suitable to responding to future unexpected challenges.
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Danielson, T. M., Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Castañeda-Moya, E., Briceño, H., Travieso, R., Marx, B. D., et al. (2017). Assessment of Everglades mangrove forest resilience: Implications for above-ground net primary productivity and carbon dynamics. Forest Ecology and Management, 404, 115–125.
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Dogru, T., Marchio, E. A., Bulut, U., & Suess, C. (2019). Climate change: Vulnerability and resilience of tourism and the entire economy. Tourism Management, 72, 292–305.
Abstract: Fluctuating and extreme weather patterns are acute indicators of climate change and these patterns modify tourist activities. The tourism industry is thus considered highly vulnerable to climate change. However, the effects of climate change on tourism have not yet been extensively quantified. Furthermore, the extent to which tourism is vulnerable or resilient to climate change has not been compared to other sectors of the economy. This study examines the extent to which vulnerability and resilience to climate change affect tourism and the overall economy. The results indicate the effects of vulnerability are much greater than those of resilience. The tourism industry is more vulnerable, yet more resilient, to climate change compared to the overall economy. The strength of these effects varies across countries with different income levels: countries with the lowest income levels are more vulnerable and less resilient, and those with the highest income are the least vulnerable and most resilient.
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Dvorak, A. C., Solo-Gabriele, H. M., Galletti, A., Benzecry, B., Malone, H., Boguszewski, V., et al. (2018). Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review. J Environ Manage, .
Abstract: Sea levels are projected to rise in response to climate change, causing the intrusion of sea water into land. In flat coastal regions, this would generate an increase in shallow water covered areas with limited circulation. This scenario raises a concern about the consequences it could have on human health, specifically the possible impacts on disease transmission. In this review paper we identified three categories of diseases which are associated with water and whose transmission can be affected by sea level rise. These categories include: mosquitoborne diseases, naturalized organisms (Vibrio spp. and toxic algae), and fecal-oral diseases. For each disease category, we propose comprehensive adaptation strategies that would help minimize possible health risks. Finally, the City of Key West, Florida is analyzed as a case study, due to its inherent vulnerability to sea level rise. Current and projected adaptation techniques are discussed as well as the integration of additional recommendations, focused on disease transmission control. Given that sea level rise will likely continue into the future, the promotion and implementation of positive adaptation strategies is necessary to ensure community resilience.
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Ernst, K. M., & Preston, B. L. (2020). Applying the Knowledge Product Evaluation (KnoPE) Framework to two urban resilience cases in the United States. Environmental Science & Policy, 107, 7–22.
Abstract: Urban decision-makers are increasingly focused on enhancing community resilience in anticipation of more frequent and intense impacts from climate variability and change. These impacts will manifest in complex and nuanced ways, particularly when coupled with additional social, economic, and environmental shifts that vary across contexts. Given these challenges, urban decision-makers are seeking new knowledge, and new ways of using existing knowledge, to support decision-making processes. In response, a broad range of knowledge products (i.e. decision-support tools, climate services) have been developed for urban areas. Yet, to date, little research has directly evaluated these products. The Knowledge Product Evaluation (KnoPE) framework addresses this gap by providing both conceptual clarity surrounding knowledge products and a structured, generalizable methodology to guide research and support improved knowledge product creation and uptake. The KnoPE Framework combines data and information on knowledge products, their use in decision-making over time, and evidence of tangible actions taken. The KnoPE Framework was developed with two urban resilience knowledge products - the Urban-Climate Adaptation Tool and the Maine Flood Resilience Checklist. Initial testing indicates that the KnoPE Framework can assess the transferability, scalability, and use of knowledge products in urban resilience decision-making. Any evaluation using the KnoPE Framework requires a thorough understanding of the contextual details of each case and understanding what factors may influence knowledge product development and subsequent decision-making processes and outcomes. Yet, as an analytical entry point for the evaluation of knowledge products, the KnoPE Framework can offer insights regarding the extent to which knowledge products influence urban resilience decision-making processes.
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Feller, I. C., Dangremond, E. M., Devlin, D. J., Lovelock, C. E., Proffitt, C. E., & Rodriguez, W. (2015). Nutrient enrichment intensifies hurricane impact in scrub mangrove ecosystems in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA. Ecology, 96(11), 2960–2972.
Abstract: Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical, subtropical, and warm temperate coasts. Despite repeated demonstrations of their ecologic and economic value, multiple stressors including nutrient over-enrichment threaten these and other coastal wetlands globally. These ecosystems will be further stressed if tropical storm intensity and frequency increase in response to global climate changes. These stressors will likely interact, but the outcome of that interaction is uncertain. Here, we examined potential interaction between nutrient over-enrichment and the September 2004 hurricanes. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne made landfall along Florida's Indian River Lagoon and caused extensive damage to a long-term fertilization experiment in a mangrove forest, which previously revealed that productivity was nitrogen (N) limited across the forest and, in particular, that N enrichment dramatically increased growth rates and aboveground biomass of stunted Avicennia germinans trees in the interior scrub zone. During the hurricanes, these trees experienced significant defoliation with three to four times greater reduction in leaf area index (LAI) than control trees. Over the long term, the +N scrub trees took four years to recover compared to two years for controls. In the adjacent fringe and transition zones, LAI was reduced by >70%, but with no differences based on zone or fertilization treatment. Despite continued delayed mortality for at least five years after the storms, LAI in the fringe and transition returned to pre-hurricane conditions in two years. Thus, nutrient over-enrichment of the coastal zone will increase the productivity of scrub mangroves, which dominate much of the mangrove landscape in Florida and the Caribbean; however, that benefit is offset by a decrease in their resistance and resilience to hurricane damage that has the potential to destabilize the system.
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Gouezo, M., Golbuu, Y., van Woesik, R., Rehm, L., Koshiba, S., & Doropoulos, C. (2015). Impact of two sequential super typhoons on coral reef communities in Palau. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 540, 73–85.
Abstract: Typhoons generally develop in the warm tropics, but rarely damage coral reefs between the latitudes 10 degrees N and 10 degrees S because they intensify at higher latitudes. However, climate change is forcing anomalous weather patterns, and is causing typhoons to take less predictable trajectories. For the first time in 70 yr, in December 2012, a super typhoon passed near the island of Palau, located at 7 degrees N in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. A year later, another super typhoon passed over the northern reefs of Palau. This study characterized the impacts of both typhoons on coral and fish assemblages in 3 habitats (i.e. outer reefs, patch reefs, and inner reefs) and at 2 depths (i.e. 3 and 10 m). Loss of coral cover was highest on the shallow, eastern slopes (similar to 60% coral cover). Juvenile coral densities decreased along the western reef slope and on the inner reefs, where overall coral cover scarcely decreased. These results suggested a potential stock-recruitment relationship with corals on the damaged eastern reefs. Early successional corals, particularly pocilloporids, recruited 6 mo after the second typhoon. Fish communities were generally un altered by the first typhoon, except small parrotfishes, which doubled in density along the eastern reef-slope and increased on the inner reefs following the second typhoon. In combination, these findings demonstrate high spatial variability in coral loss, overall decreases in juvenile corals, and increases in herbivorous fishes on a tropical reef system that has rarely experienced large typhoon waves.
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Heve, W. K., Olesen, J. E., Chirinda, N., & Adiku, S. G. K. (2016). Targeted management of organic resources for sustainably increasing soil organic carbon: Observations and perspectives for resource use and climate adaptations in northern Ghana. Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B -- Soil & Plant Science, 66(2), 178–190.
Abstract: Since soil organic matter (SOM) buffers against impacts of climatic variability, the objective of this study was to assess on-farm distribution of SOM and propose realistic options for increasing SOM and thus the adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability in the interior northern savannah of Ghana. Data and information on spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC), current practices that could enhance climate adaptation including management of organic resources were collected through biophysical assessments and snap community surveys. Even though homestead fields were more frequently cultivated, higher amounts of SOC (15 +/- 2gkg(-1)) were observed in homesteads when compared to the periphery cropped sections in bushes (SOC=9 +/- 1gkg(-1)). Possibly, a combination of household wastes, droppings of domestic animals that are mostly reared in a free-range system, manures applied to crops and cultural norms of chieftaincy, which cause short-term fallowing of homestead fields could account for the differences in SOC. Use of organic resources for soil amendment among farmers was low (31% of interviewed farmers) due largely to ignorance of fertilizer values of manures and residues, traditions for bush-burning and competing use of organic resources for fuels. Our findings suggest a need for effective management practices, training and awareness aimed at improving management of organic resources and, consequently, increasing SOC and resilience to climate-change-induced risks.
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Holstein, D. M., Paris, C. B., Vaz, A. C., & Smith, T. B. (2016). Modeling vertical coral connectivity and mesophotic refugia. Coral Reefs, 35(1), 23–37.
Abstract: Whether mesophotic reefs will behave as refugia for corals threatened by global climate change and coastal development depends on vertical exchange of larvae between diverse habitats. Here we use a biophysical model of larval dispersal to estimate vertical connectivity of a broadcasting (Orbicella faveolata) and a brooding (Porites astreoides) species of coral in the US Virgin Islands. Modeling predicts subsidy to shallow areas by mesophotic larvae of both species based on local hydrology, adult reproductive characteristics, larval traits, and a wide range of scenarios developed to test depth-sensitive factors, such as fertilization rates and post-settlement survivorship. In extreme model scenarios of reduced fertilization and post-settlement survivorship of mesophotic larvae, 1-10 % local mesophotic subsidy to shallow recruitment is predicted for both species, which are demographically significant. Although direct vertical connectivity is higher for the broadcaster, the brooder demonstrates higher local multigenerational vertical connectivity, which suggests that local P. astreoides populations are more resilient than those of O. faveolata, and corroborates field studies. As shallow habitat degrades, mesophotic-shallow subsidy is predicted to increase for both species. This study is the first of its kind to simulate larval dispersal and settlement between habitats of different depths, and these findings have local, regional, and global implications for predicting and managing coral reef persistence in a changing climate.
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Joyce, J., Chang, N. - B., Harji, R., Ruppert, T., & Imen, S. (2017). Developing a multi-scale modeling system for resilience assessment of green-grey drainage infrastructures under climate change and sea level rise impact. Environmental Modelling & Software, 90, 1–26.
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Linkov, I., Fox-Lent, C., Read, L., Allen, C. R., Arnott, J. C., Bellini, E., et al. (2018). Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment. Risk Anal, 38(9), 1772–1780.
Abstract: Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies.
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Marinucci, G., Luber, G., Uejio, C., Saha, S., & Hess, J. (2014). Building Resilience against Climate Effects--A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies. Ijerph, 11(6), 6433–6458.
Abstract: Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents.
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McOmber, C., McOmber C, Audia, C., Audia C, Crowley, F., & Crowley F. (2019). Building resilience by challenging social norms: integrating a transformative approach within the BRACED consortia. Disasters, 43.
Abstract: Resilience is a complex phenomenon whereby a multitude of social and environmental factors, including gender, combine to shape the ways that shocks affect people. Looking at two BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) projects, in Burkina Faso and in Ethiopia, this article uses a desk review and primary data from partners and people at risk to explore how a gender-transformative approach can be an integral part of resilience-building projects, particularly those implemented by multi-stakeholder consortia. It also suggests ways to incorporate a stronger gender component in similar future projects. The article argues that donors and programme managers must provide clear principles and guidelines for achieving gender equity within resilience-building efforts. However, these must allow flexibility to adapt to norms, needs and resources as determined by implementing partners. The right balance can be achieved by facilitating spaces for individual and collective goal-setting; assessing current capacity and trajectories; and lesson-sharing as an iterative process for institutional learning.
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Molinaroli, E., Molinaroli E, Guerzoni, S., Guerzoni S, Suman, D., & Suman D. (2019). Do the Adaptations of Venice and Miami to Sea Level Rise Offer Lessons for Other Vulnerable Coastal Cities? Environ Manage, 64(4), 391–415.
Abstract: Both Venice and Miami are high-density coastal cities that are extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and climate change. Aside from their sea-level location, they are both characterized by large populations, valuable infrastructure and real estate, and economic dependence on tourism, as well as the availability of advanced scientific data and technological expertize. Yet their responses have been quite different. We examine the biophysical environments of the two cities, as well as their socio-economic features, administrative arrangements vulnerabilities, and responses to sea level rise and flooding. Our study uses a qualitative approach to illustrate how adaptation policies have emerged in these two coastal cities. Based on this information, we critically compare the different adaptive responses of Venice and Miami and suggest what each city may learn from the other, as well as offer lessons for other vulnerable coastal cities. In the two cases presented here it would seem that adaptation to SLR has not yet led to a reformulation of the problem or a structural transformation of the relevant institutions. Decision-makers must address the complex issue of rising seas with a combination of scientific knowledge, socio-economic expertize, and good governance. In this regard, the "hi-tech" approach of Venice has generated problems of its own (as did the flood control projects in South Florida over half a century ago), while the increasing public mobilization in Miami appears more promising. The importance of continued long-term adaptation measures is essential in both cities.
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Mumby, P. J., Sanchirico, J. N., Broad, K., Beck, M. W., Tyedmers, P., Morikawa, M., et al. (2017). Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change. Glob Change Biol, 23(11), 4483–4496.
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Muneepeerakul, C. P., Muneepeerakul, R., & Huffaker, R. G. (2017). Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance. Earth's Future, 5(12), 1267–1277.
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Ojea, E., Pearlman, I., Gaines, S. D., & Lester, S. E. (2017). Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change. Ambio, 46(4), 399–412.
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Rasoulkhani, K., Mostafavi, A., Reyes, M. P., & Batouli, M. (2020). Resilience planning in hazards-humans-infrastructure nexus: A multi-agent simulation for exploratory assessment of coastal water supply infrastructure adaptation to sea-level rise. Environmental Modelling & Software, 125, 104636.
Abstract: Coastal water supply infrastructure systems are exposed to saltwater intrusion exacerbated by sea-level rise stressors. To enable assessing the long-term resilience of these systems to the impact of sea-level rise, this study developed a novel hazards-humans-infrastructure nexus framework that enables the integrated modeling of stochastic processes of hazard scenarios, decision-theoretic elements of adaptation planning processes of utility agencies, and dynamic processes of water supply infrastructure performance. Using the proposed framework and data collected from South Miami-Dade service area, a multi-agent simulation model was created to conduct exploratory assessments of the long-term resilience of water supply infrastructure under various sea-level rise scenarios and adaptation approaches. The results showed the capability of the proposed model for scenario landscape generation to discover robust adaptation pathways for enhanced infrastructure resilience under uncertainty. The analysis results could provide actionable scientific information to water infrastructure managers to improve their adaptation planning and investment decision-making processes.
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Rehage, J. S., Blanchard, J. R., Boucek, R. E., Lorenz, J. J., & Robinson, M. (2016). Knocking back invasions: variable resistance and resilience to multiple cold spells in native vs. nonnative fishes. Ecosphere, 7(6), e01268.
Abstract: Extreme climate events can interact synergistically with invasions to dramatically alter ecosystem structure, function, and services. Yet, the effects of extreme climate events on species invasions remain unresolved. Extreme climate events may increase resources and decrease biotic resistance by causing physiological stress and/or mortality of native taxa, resulting in invasion opportunities for nonnative species. Alternatively, extreme climate events may regulate nonnative populations, preventing them from achieving dominance. We examined whether a sequence of three cold spells had a negative or positive effect on fish invasions in the coastal Everglades. We compared resistance (initial effects) and resilience (rate of recovery) to the cold spells between native fishes and the dominant nonnative invader, the Mayan cichlid, across eight populations expanding two mangroves drainages in the southern Everglades. We tracked native fish and nonnative Mayan cichlid populations for 10 yr including 3 yr pre- and 4 yr post-cold spells. In both drainages, native fishes were more resistant to the cold spells than the nonnative species. While native fishes experienced declines at only one site, nonnative Mayan numbers were reduced by 90-100% across six sites where they were abundant pre-disturbances. Four years after the last cold spell, we saw limited resilience in the affected nonnative populations. Only one of the six affected sites fully recovered, whereas the other five sites showed no recovery in Mayan cichlid numbers. The recovered site was closest to a canal, known to act as thermal refuges for nonnative fishes. In summary, cold spells can reduce nonnative abundances, but whether cold spells can effectively knock back invasions (and range expansions) by tropical/subtropical nonnative species will depend on how the frequency and severity of cold spells are affected by climate change. We propose that these mortality-causing extreme events could provide rare management opportunities late in an invasion.
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