Acevedo, M. A., Beaudrot, L., MeléndezAckerman, E. J., Tremblay, R. L., & Shefferson, R. (2020). Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte. J Ecol, .
Abstract: The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year dataset on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios.
We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability) and/or rainfall.
The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches.
Synthesis. Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
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Ajaz Ahmed, M. A., Abd-Elrahman, A., Escobedo, F. J., Cropper Jr., W. P., Martin, T. A., & Timilsina, N. (2017). Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 199, 158–171.
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Allen, J. M., Allen JM, Germain-Aubrey, C. C., Germain-Aubrey CC, Barve, N., Barve N, et al. (2019). Spatial Phylogenetics of Florida Vascular Plants: The Effects of Calibration and Uncertainty on Diversity Estimates. iScience, 11, 57–70.
Abstract: Recent availability of biodiversity data resources has enabled an unprecedented ability to estimate phylogenetically based biodiversity metrics over broad scales. Such approaches elucidate ecological and evolutionary processes yielding a biota and help guide conservation efforts. However, the choice of appropriate phylogenetic resources and underlying input data uncertainties may affect interpretation. Here, we address how differences among phylogenetic source trees and levels of phylogenetic uncertainty affect these metrics and test existing hypotheses regarding geographic biodiversity patterns across the diverse vascular plant flora of Florida, US. Ecological niche models for 1,490 Florida species were combined with a "purpose-built" phylogenetic tree (phylogram and chronogram), as well as with trees derived from community resources (Phylomatic and Open Tree of Life). There were only modest differences in phylodiversity metrics given the phylogenetic source tree and taking into account the level of phylogenetic uncertainty; we identify similar areas of conservation interest across Florida regardless of the method used.
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Alza, C. M., Donnelly, M. A., & Whitfield, S. M. (2016). Additive effects of mean temperature, temperature variability, and chlorothalonil to red-eyed treefrog (Agalychnis callidryas) larvae: Temperature variability and chlorothalonil toxicity. Environ Toxicol Chem, 35(12), 2998–3004.
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Anandhi, A. (2016). Growing degree days - Ecosystem indicator for changing diurnal temperatures and their impact on corn growth stages in Kansas. Ecological Indicators, 61, 149–158.
Abstract: Understanding how climate change will affect plant phenology (shifts in the timing of plant activity) is central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies. This aspect of plant ecology often has been overlooked, but addressing the consequences of climate change for adaptive/mitigative management is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. This study is innovative because it uses growing degree days (GDD), which has existed since the 1730s, as an ecosystem indicator to study changing diurnal temperatures; their effects on different plant growth stages in the last century; and as a basis for development of future adaptive management strategies. Our results show the most recent time period (1980-2009) had the earliest emergence and the least variability among stations in the day at which the crop stage occurred for most stages except emergence and physiological maturity. 100 year linear trends in the stations indicated all seven crop stages except tassel initiation occurred earlier by one day per decade during the study period. The number of stations with significant decreases varied from 11 to 17 stations out of 23 stations in Kansas. Tassel initiation stage occurred later by one day per decade during the study period. The most recent time period (1980-2009) had the highest variability among stations and 30 year time periods. The variability in trends is higher in western Kansas when compared to eastern Kansas. This knowledge has transformative potential to improve our understanding of the occurrence and duration of the different plant growth stages, add local precision to earlier findings for changes in overall GDD that encompassed larger areas, and help explain the differences in trends from some earlier studies. These shifts in the phenology of agricultural plants as a result of climate change have implications on food production increases required to feed the growing population.
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Anderegg, W. R. L., Hicke, J. A., Fisher, R. A., Allen, C. D., Aukema, J., Bentz, B., et al. (2015). Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate. New Phytol, 208(3), 674–683.
Abstract: Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.
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Arcodia, M. C., Kirtman, B. P., & Siqueira, L. S. P. (2020). How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation. J. Climate, 33(11), 4621–4640.
Abstract: A composite analysis reveals how the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-tropospheric flow and regional low-level moisture availability. Upper-level divergence associated with the MJO tropical convection drives a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to the midlatitudes. This forces a midlatitude upper-level dipolar geopotential height anomaly that is accompanied by a westward retraction of the jet stream and reduced rainfall over the central-eastern North Pacific. A reverse effect is found as the MJO propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent. These large differences in the extratropical upper-level flow, combined with anomalies in the regional supply of water vapor, have a profound impact on southeastern U.S. rainfall. The low-frequency variability, including that associated with ENSO, can modify the seasonal background flow (e.g., El Nino and La Nina basic states) affecting the distribution, strength, and propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation and the extratropical teleconnection patterns. The combined effects of the ENSO and the MJO signals result in both spatial and temporal patterns of interference and modulation of North American rainfall. The results from this study show that during a particular phase of an active MJO, the extratropical response can considerably enhance or mask the interannual ENSO signal in the United States, potentially resulting in anomalies of the opposite sign than that expected during a specific ENSO phase. Analyses of specific MJO events during an El Nino or La Nina episode reveal significant contributions to extreme events via constructive and destructive interference of the MJO and ENSO signals.
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Arias, M. E., Lee, E., Farinosi, F., Pereira, F. F., & Moorcroft, P. R. (2018). Decoupling the effects of deforestation and climate variability in the Tapajós river basin in the Brazilian Amazon. Hydrological Processes, 32(11), 1648–1663.
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Atwood, T. B., Madin, E. M. P., Harborne, A. R., Hammill, E., Luiz, O. J., Ollivier, Q. R., et al. (2018). Predators Shape Sedimentary Organic Carbon Storage in a Coral Reef Ecosystem. Front. Ecol. Evol., 6, 110.
Abstract: Trophic cascade theory predicts that predator effects should extend to influence carbon cycling in ecosystems. Yet, there has been little empirical evidence in natural ecosystems to support this hypothesis. Here, we use a naturally-occurring trophic cascade to provide evidence that predators help protect sedimentary organic carbon stocks in coral reef ecosystems. Our results show that predation risk altered the behavior of herbivorous fish, whereby it constrained grazing to areas close to the refuge of the patch reefs. Macroalgae growing in "riskier" areas further away from the reef were released from grazing pressure, which subsequently promoted carbon accumulation in the sediments underlying the macroalgal beds. Here we found that carbon stocks furthest away from the reef edge were ~24% higher than stocks closest to the reef. Our results indicate that predators and herbivores play an important role in structuring carbon dynamics in a natural marine ecosystem, highlighting the need to conserve natural predator-prey dynamics to help maintain the crucial role of marine sediments in sequestering carbon.
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Barnes, B. B., Hu, C., Holekamp, K. L., Blonski, S., Spiering, B. A., Palandro, D., et al. (2014). Use of Landsat data to track historical water quality changes in Florida Keys marine environments. Remote Sensing of Environment, 140, 485–496.
Abstract: Satellite remote sensing has shown the advantage of water quality assessment at synoptic scales in coastal regions, yet modern sensors such as SeaWiFS or MODIS did not start until the late 1990s. For non-interrupted observations, only the Landsat series have the potential to detect major water quality events since the 1980s. However, such ability is hindered by the unknown data quality or consistency through time. Here, using the Florida Keys as a case study, we demonstrate an approach to identify historical water quality events through improved atmospheric correction of Landsat data and cross-validation with concurrent MODIS data. After aggregation of the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) 30-m pixels to 240-m pixels (to increase the signal-to-noise ratio), a MODIS-like atmospheric correction approach using the Landsat shortwave-infrared (SWIR) bands was developed and applied to the entire Landsat-5 TM data series between 1985 and 2010. Remote sensing reflectance (RRS) anomalies from Landsat (2 standard deviations from a pixel-specific monthly climatology) were found to detect MODIS RRS anomalies with over 90% accuracy for all three bands for the same period of 2002–2010. Extending this analysis for the entire Landsat-5 time-series revealed RRS anomaly events in the 1980s and 1990s, some of which are corroborated by known ecosystem changes due in part to changes in local freshwater flow. Indeed, TM RRS anomalies were shown to be useful in detecting shifts in seagrass density, turbidity increases, black water events, and phytoplankton blooms. These findings have large implications for ongoing and future water quality assessment in the Florida Keys as well as in many other coastal regions.
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Barrett, R. T. S., Hollister, R. D., Oberbauer, S. F., & Tweedie, C. E. (2015). Arctic plant responses to changing abiotic factors in northern Alaska. American Journal of Botany, 102(12), 2020–2031.
Abstract: PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Understanding the relationship between plants and changing abiotic factors is necessary to document and anticipate the impacts of climate change.
METHODS: We used data from long-term research sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, to investigate trends in abiotic factors (snow melt and freeze-up dates, air and soil temperature, thaw depth, and soil moisture) and their relationships with plant traits (inflorescence height, leaf length, reproductive effort, and reproductive phenology) over time.
KEY RESULTS: Several abiotic factors, including increasing air and soil temperatures, earlier snowmelt, delayed freeze-up, drier soils, and increasing thaw depths, showed nonsignificant tendencies over time that were consistent with the regional warming pattern observed in the Barrow area. Over the same period, plants showed consistent, although typically nonsignificant tendencies toward increasing inflorescence heights and reproductive efforts. Air and soil temperatures, measured as degree days, were consistently correlated with plant growth and reproductive effort. Reproductive effort was best predicted using abiotic conditions from the previous year. We also found that varying the base temperature used to calculate degree days changed the number of significant relationships between temperature and the trait: in general, reproductive phenologies in colder sites were better predicted using lower base temperatures, but the opposite held for those in warmer sites.
CONCLUSIONS: Plant response to changing abiotic factors is complex and varies by species, site, and trait; however, for six plant species, we have strong evidence that climate change will cause significant shifts in their growth and reproductive effort as the region continues to warm.
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Bercel,, & Kranz,. (2019). Insights into carbon acquisition and photosynthesis in Karenia brevis under a range of CO2 concentrations. Progress in Oceanography, 172, 65–76.
Abstract: Karenia brevis is a marine dinoflagellate commonly found in the Gulf of Mexico and important both ecologically and economically due to its production of the neurotoxin brevetoxin, which can cause respiratory illness in humans and widespread death of marine animals. K. brevis strains have previously shown to be sensitive to changes in CO2, both in terms of growth as well as toxin production. Our study aimed to understand this sensitivity by measuring underlying mechanisms, such as photosynthesis, carbon acquisition, and photophysiology. K. brevis (CCFWC-126) did not show a significant response in growth, cellular composition of carbon and nitrogen, nor in photosynthetic rates between pCO2 concentrations of 150, 400, or 780 µatm. However, a strong response in its acquisition of inorganic carbon was found. Half saturation values for CO2 increased from 1.5 to 3.3 µM, inorganic carbon preference switched from HCO- to CO2 (14-56% CO2 usage), and external carbonic anhydrase activity was downregulated by 23% when comparing low and high pCO2. We conclude that K. brevis must employ an efficient and regulated CO2 concentrating mechanism (CCM) to maintain constant carbon fixation and growth across pCO2 levels. No statistically significant correlation between CO2 and brevetoxin content was found, yet a positive trend with enhanced pCO2 was detected. This study is the first explaining how this socioeconomically important species is able to efficiently supply inorganic carbon for photosynthesis, which can potentially prolong bloom situations. This study also highlights that elevated CO2 concentrations, as projected for a future ocean, can affect underlying physiological processes of K. brevis, some of which could lead to increases in cellular brevetoxin production and therefore increased impacts on coastal ecosystems and economies.
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Bielmyer-Fraser, G. K., Patel, P., Capo, T., & Grosell, M. (2018). Physiological responses of corals to ocean acidification and copper exposure. Mar Pollut Bull, 133, 781–790.
Abstract: Acidification and land-based sources of pollution have been linked to widespread declines of coral cover in coastal reef ecosystems. In this study, two coral species, Acropora cervicornis and Pocillopora damicornis were exposed to increased copper at two CO2 levels for 96h. Copper accumulation and anti-oxidant enzyme activities were measured. Copper accumulation only increased in A. cervicornis zooxanthellae and corresponded with photosynthetic toxicity. Enzyme activities in both coral species were affected; however, A. cervicornis was more sensitive than P. damicornis, and zooxanthellae were more affected than animal fractions of holobionts. Generally, activities of all anti-oxidant enzymes increased, with copper exposure in corals; whereas, activities of glutathione reductase and to some degree glutathione peroxidase were observed due to increasing CO2 exposure alone. Exposure to copper in combination with higher CO2 resulted in a synergistic response in some cases. These results provide insight into mechanisms of copper and CO2 impacts in corals.
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Bilskie, M. V., Hagen, S. C., Alizad, K., Medeiros, S. C., Passeri, D. L., Needham, H. F., et al. (2016). Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Earth's Future, 4(5), 177–193.
Abstract: This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (bathtub) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.
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Blanc-Betes, E., Welker, J. M., Sturchio, N. C., Chanton, J. P., & Gonzalez-Meler, M. A. (2016). Winter precipitation and snow accumulation drive the methane sink or source strength of Arctic tussock tundra. Glob Change Biol, 22(8), 2818–2833.
Abstract: Arctic winter precipitation is projected to increase with global warming, but some areas will experience decreases in snow accumulation. Although Arctic CH4 emissions may represent a significant climate forcing feedback, long-term impacts of changes in snow accumulation on CH4 fluxes remain uncertain. We measured ecosystem CH4 fluxes and soil CH4 and CO2 concentrations and C-13 composition to investigate the metabolic pathways and transport mechanisms driving moist acidic tundra CH4 flux over the growing season (Jun-Aug) after 18years of experimental snow depth increases and decreases. Deeper snow increased soil wetness and warming, reducing soil %O-2 levels and increasing thaw depth. Soil moisture, through changes in soil %O-2 saturation, determined predominance of methanotrophy or methanogenesis, with soil temperature regulating the ecosystem CH4 sink or source strength. Reduced snow (RS) increased the fraction of oxidized CH4 (Fox) by 75-120% compared to Ambient, switching the system from a small source to a net CH4 sink (21 +/- 2 and -31 +/- 1mgCH(4)m(-2)season(-1) at Ambient and RS). Deeper snow reduced Fox by 35-40% and 90-100% in medium- (MS) and high- (HS) snow additions relative to Ambient, contributing to increasing the CH4 source strength of moist acidic tundra (464 +/- 15 and 3561 +/- 97mgCH(4)m(-2)season(-1) at MS and HS). Decreases in Fox with deeper snow were partly due to increases in plant-mediated CH4 transport associated with the expansion of tall graminoids. Deeper snow enhanced CH4 production within newly thawed soils, responding mainly to soil warming rather than to increases in acetate fermentation expected from thaw-induced increases in SOC availability. Our results suggest that increased winter precipitation will increase the CH4 source strength of Arctic tundra, but the resulting positive feedback on climate change will depend on the balance between areas with more or less snow accumulation than they are currently facing.
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Boote, K. J., Jones, J. W., White, J. W., Asseng, S., & Lizaso, J. I. (2013). Putting mechanisms into crop production models: Putting mechanisms into crop production models. Plant Cell Environ, 36(9), 1658–1672.
Abstract: Crop growth models dynamically simulate processes of C, N and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to predict crop growth and development and at season-end, final yield. Their ability to integrate effects of genetics, environment and crop management have led to applications ranging from understanding gene function to predicting potential impacts of climate change. The history of crop models is reviewed briefly, and their level of mechanistic detail for assimilation and respiration, ranging from hourly leaf-to-canopy assimilation to daily radiation-use efficiency is discussed. Crop models have improved steadily over the past 30–40 years, but much work remains. Improvements are needed for the prediction of transpiration response to elevated CO2 and high temperature effects on phenology and reproductive fertility, and simulation of root growth and nutrient uptake under stressful edaphic conditions. Mechanistic improvements are needed to better connect crop growth to genetics and to soil fertility, soil waterlogging and pest damage. Because crop models integrate multiple processes and consider impacts of environment and management, they have excellent potential for linking research from genomics and allied disciplines to crop responses at the field scale, thus providing a valuable tool for deciphering genotype by environment by management effects.
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Boote, K. J., Prasad, V., Allen Jr., L. H., Singh, P., & Jones, J. W. (2018). Modeling sensitivity of grain yield to elevated temperature in the DSSAT crop models for peanut, soybean, dry bean, chickpea, sorghum, and millet. European Journal of Agronomy, 100, 99–109.
Abstract: Crop models are increasingly being used as tools to simulate climate change effects or effects of virtual heat-tolerant cultivars; therefore it is important that upper temperature thresholds for seed-set, seed growth, phenology, and other processes affecting yield be developed and parameterized from elevated temperature experiments whether field or controlled-environment chambers. In this paper, we describe the status of crop models for dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), soybean (Glycine max L.), chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), and millet (Pennisetum glaucum L. (R.) Br) in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for response to elevated temperature by comparison to observed data, and we review where changes have been made or where needed changes remain. Temperature functions for phenology and photosynthesis of the CROPGRO-Dry Bean model were modified in 2006 for DSSAT V4.5, based on observed growth and yield of Montcalm cultivar grown in sunlit, controlled-environment chambers. Temperature functions for soybean and peanut models were evaluated against growth and yield data in the same chambers and found to adequately predict growth and yield, thus have not been modified since 1998 release of V3.5. The temperature functions for the chickpea model were substantially modified for many processes, and are updated for V4.6. The millet model was re-coded and modified for its temperature sensitivities, with a new function to allow the 8–10 day period prior to anthesis to affect grain set, as parameterized from field observations. For the sorghum model, the temperature effect on grain growth rate was modified to improve yield and grain size response to elevated temperature by comparison to data in controlled-environment chambers. For reliable assessments of climate change impact, it is critically important to gather additional temperature response data and to update parameterization and code of all crop models including DSSAT.
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Bourque, J. R. (2016). Side-Necked Turtles (Testudines, Pleurodira) from the Ancient Gulf Coastal Plain of Florida During Middle Cenozoic Megathermals. Chelonian Conservation and Biology, 15(1), 23–35.
Abstract: Fossils from paleocoastal deposits in northwestern Florida represent at least 3 pleurodire taxa. Biochronologic and paleoclimatic correlates suggest that the presence and absence of side-necked turtles in Florida was synchronous with global climatic shifts in the middle to late Paleogene and early Neogene. The oldest pleurodire record in Florida is from the end of the Greenhouse World in the middle to late Eocene, followed by a hiatus of similar to 11 million yrs during the onset of the Icehouse World in the early Oligocene. Their sojourn in Florida during the latest Oligocene (25-24 Ma) was concurrent with a brief late Oligocene warming (LOW), and a subsequent hiatus in the early Miocene (similar to 24-18 Ma) was contemporaneous with global cooling. Their resettlement and most populous occurrences in Florida during the middle to late Hemingfordian through early Barstovian (similar to 18-15.5 Ma) coincided with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO), a significant global warming event. Pleurodires are indicators that paleoclimate in the southeastern United States was frost free during the Eocene, LOW, and MMCO with air and water temperatures warm enough to support these generally cold-intolerant turtles. A small-bodied podocnemidid existed in the Cucaracha Formation (similar to 19.05-18.8 Ma) of Panama during the early Miocene pleurodire hiatus in Florida, and this or a closely related taxon later dispersed into Florida by the early Barstovian, when temperatures were suitable during the MMCO. Previously reported pleurodire fossils from the temporally mixed Lee Creek Mine of North Carolina are most likely middle Miocene in age when pleurodires were common in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. The presence of pleurodires in the Seaboard Local Fauna could help constrain the age of the fauna to younger than 18 Ma and probably closer to 17 Ma based on hypothesized paleoclimate at that time. A pleurodire from the middle Eocene Point "A'' Dam site in southern Alabama may represent a late occurrence of the Bothremydidae.
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Briceno, H., Miller, G., & Davis, S. E. (2014). Relating Freshwater Flow with Estuarine Water Quality in the Southern Everglades Mangrove Ecotone. Wetlands, 34(S1), 101–111.
Abstract: Florida Bay is more saline than it was historically, and reduced freshwater flows may lead to more phosphorus inputs to the mangrove ecotone from the marine end-member. This is important given plans to restore freshwater flow into eastern Florida Bay. We investigated the relationships between salinity, nutrients, and hydrologic variables in the mangrove ecotone of Taylor Slough. We expected that total phosphorus (TP) would increase with salinity, reflecting a downstream marine source, while total nitrogen (TN) would increase with flow in the mangrove ecotone. Despite expectations of increased flows improving the ecological health of lower Taylor Slough and Florida Bay, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) dynamics may shift in response to new conditions of flow and salinity as well as organic carbon, N, and P availability. Our results showed that TP concentrations are more discharge-driven while TN is more variable and potentially derived from different sources along the flow path from the freshwater Everglades marshes to Florida Bay. Increased flow of freshwater through Taylor Slough will likely decrease TP concentrations in this historically oligotrophic and P-limited ecosystem. However, more studies along the mangrove ecotone is needed to understand how increased flows will affect nitrogen dynamics relative to phosphorus.
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Briceno, H. O., & Boyer, J. N. (2010). Climatic Controls on Phytoplankton Biomass in a Sub-tropical Estuary, Florida Bay, USA. Estuaries and Coasts, 33(2), 541–553.
Abstract: The extraction of climatic signals from time series of biogeochemical data is further complicated in estuarine regions because of the dynamic interaction of land, ocean, and atmosphere. We explored the behavior of potential global and regional climatic stressors to isolate specific shifts or trends, which could have a forcing role on the behavior of biogeochemical descriptors of water quality and phytoplankton biomass from Florida Bay, as an example of a sub-tropical estuary. We performed statistical analysis and subdivided the bay into six zones having unique biogeochemical characteristics. Significant shifts in the drivers were identified in all the chlorophyll a time series. Chlorophyll a concentrations closely follow global forcing and display a generalized declining trend on which seasonal oscillations are superimposed, and it is only interrupted by events of sudden increase triggered by storms which are followed by a relatively rapid return to pre-event conditions trailing again the long-term trend.
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