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Chambers, S. M., Watkins Jr., J. E., & Sessa, E. B. (2017). Differences in dehydration tolerance among populations of a gametophyte-only fern. Am. J. Bot., 104(4), 598–607.
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Cohuo, S., Macario-González, L., Wagner, S., Naumann, K., Echeverría-Galindo, P., Pérez, L., et al. (2020). Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes. Biogeosciences, 17(1), 145–161.
Abstract: We evaluated how ranges of four endemic and non-endemic aquatic ostracode species changed in response to long-term (glacial-interglacial cycles) and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We employed two complementary approaches, fossil records and species distribution models (SDMs). Fossil assemblages were obtained from sediment cores PI-1, PI-2, PI-6 and Peten-Itza 22-VIII-99 from the Peten Itza Scientific Drilling Project, Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala. To obtain a spatially resolved pattern of (past) species distribution, a down-scaling cascade is employed. SDMs were reconstructed for the last interglacial (similar to 120 ka), the last glacial maximum (similar to 22 ka) and the middle Holocene (similar to 6 ka). During glacial and interglacial cycles and marine isotope stages (MISs), modelled paleo-distributions and paleo-records show the nearly continuous presence of endemic and non-endemic species in the region, suggesting negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. During periods of abrupt ecological disruption such as Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), endemic species were resilient, remaining within their current areas of distribution. Non-endemic species, however, proved to be more sensitive. Modelled paleo-distributions suggest that the geographic range of non-endemic species changed, moving southward into Central America. Due to the uncer-tainties involved in the downscaling from the global numerical to the highly resolved regional geospatial statistical modelling, results can be seen as a benchmark for future studies using similar approaches. Given relatively moderate temperature decreases in Lake Peten Itza waters (similar to 5 degrees C) and the persistence of some aquatic ecosystems even during periods of severe drying in HS1, our data suggest (1) the existence of micro-refugia and/or (2) continuous interaction between central metapopulations and surrounding populations, enabling aquatic taxa to survive climate fluctuations in the northern Neotropical region.
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Fujisaki, I., Mazzotti, F. J., Watling, J., Krysko, K. L., & Escribano, Y. (2015). Geographic risk assessment reveals spatial variation in invasion potential of exotic reptiles in an invasive species hotspot. Herpetological Conservation And Biology, 10(2), 621–632.
Abstract: Invasive species are among the primary threats to biodiversity and risk assessment is one problem-solving approach that can prioritize and guide efforts to reduce the negative consequences of invasion. We used a niche-modeling framework to conduct a geographic risk assessment of exotic reptiles in the state of Florida, USA, a region with the highest density of invasive herpetofaunal species in the world. We then compared model predictions with observed records of exotic species across the state. We compiled georeferenced native occurrence locations of exotic reptile species found in Florida and used maximum entropy modeling with global-scale environmental data as inputs. The predicted number of species with suitable habitat was variable across the state and by management units, and it generally decreased with increasing latitude. These predictions were supported by observed richness of exotic species in the lower latitude and the known problem of exotic reptiles in southern Florida. Overall, minimum temperature made the greatest contributions in model predictions, but the level of each variable's contributions varied by species. The overall omission rate with the test data was small, but it was largely variable by species when we used the occurrence locations in Florida. Our use of a niche-modeling for geographic risk assessment of an assemblage of exotic reptile species can be applied cost-effectively to identify areas most susceptible to invasion. The observed large geographic variability in number of potential exotic reptiles suggests that local-scale environmental data can be employed to enhance management applications.
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Ghotbi, S., Wang, D., Singh, A., Mayo, T., & Sivapalan, M. (2020). Climate and Landscape Controls of Regional Patterns of Flow Duration Curves Across the Continental United States: Statistical Approach. Water Resour. Res., 56(11).
Abstract: The flow duration curve (FDC) is a hydrologically meaningful representation of the statistical distribution of daily streamflows. The complexity of processes contributing to the FDC introduces challenges for the direct exploration of physical controls on FDC. In this paper, the controls of climate and catchment characteristics on FDC are explored using a stochastic framework that enables construction of the FDC from three components of streamflow: fast and slow flow (during wet days) and slow flow during dry days. The FDC during wet days (FDCw) is computed as the statistical sum of the fast flow duration curve (FFDC) and the slow flow duration curve (SFDCw), considering their dependency. FDC is modeled as the mixture distribution of FDCw and the slow flow duration curve during dry days (SFDCd), by considering the fraction of wet days (δ) for perennial streams and both δ and the fraction of days of zero streamflow for ephemeral streams. The Kappa distribution is employed to fit the FFDC, SFDCw, and SFDCd for 300 catchments from Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) across the United States. Results show that the 0-20th percentile of FDC is controlled by FFDC and SFDCw, the 90-100th percentile of FDC is controlled by SFDCd, and the 20-90th percentile of FDC is controlled by three components. The relationships between estimated Kappa distribution parameters and climate and catchment characteristics reveal that the aridity index, the coefficient of variation of daily precipitation, timing of precipitation, time interval between storms, snow, topographic slope, and slope of recession slope curve are dominant controlling factors.
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Glynn, P. W., Alvarado, J. J., Banks, S., Cortes, J., Feingold, J. S., Jimenez, C., et al. (2017). Eastern Pacific Coral Reef Provinces, Coral Community Structure and Composition: An Overview. In Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (Vol. 8, pp. 107–176). Springer.
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Herrera-R, G. A., Oberdorff, T., Anderson, E. P., Brosse, S., Carvajal-Vallejos, F. M., Frederico, R. G., et al. (2020). The combined effects of climate change and river fragmentation on the distribution of Andean Amazon fishes. Glob Chang Biol, .
Abstract: Upstream range shifts of freshwater fishes have been documented in recent years due to ongoing climate change. River fragmentation by dams, presenting physical barriers, can limit the climatically induced spatial redistribution of fishes. Andean freshwater ecosystems in the Neotropical region are expected to be highly affected by these future disturbances. However, proper evaluations are still missing. Combining species distribution models and functional traits of Andean Amazon fishes, coupled with dam locations and climatic projections (2070s), we (a) evaluated the potential impacts of future climate on species ranges, (b) investigated the combined impact of river fragmentation and climate change and (c) tested the relationships between these impacts and species functional traits. Results show that climate change will induce range contraction for most of the Andean Amazon fish species, particularly those inhabiting highlands. Dams are not predicted to greatly limit future range shifts for most species (i.e., the Barrier effect). However, some of these barriers should prevent upstream shifts for a considerable number of species, reducing future potential diversity in some basins. River fragmentation is predicted to act jointly with climate change in promoting a considerable decrease in the probability of species to persist in the long-term because of splitting species ranges in smaller fragments (i.e., the Isolation effect). Benthic and fast-flowing water adapted species with hydrodynamic bodies are significantly associated with severe range contractions from climate change.
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Hughes,, Cebrian,, Heck,, Goff,, Hanley,, Scheffel,, et al. (2018). Effects of oil exposure, plant species composition, and plant genotypic diversity on salt marsh and mangrove assemblages. Ecosphere, 9(4), e02207.
Abstract: Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution and abundance of many species. Because species vary in the rate and degree of these shifts, novel transition zones have developed where new combinations of species overlap. If climate-mediated range shifts result in greater diversity, transition communities could have enhanced resistance and/or resilience, particularly if the resident and colonizing species differ in their response to environmental change. The range expansion of the tropical black mangrove, Avicennia germinans, into salt marshes dominated by the temperate cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, provides an opportunity to examine the responses of climate‐mediated transition zones to disturbance. We conducted a yearlong mesocosm experiment testing the effects of plant species identity and composition (A. germinans, S. alterniflora), as well as plant genotypic diversity (S. alterniflora only), on the response of coastal wetlands to oiling disturbance. Oil negatively impacted S. alterniflora and A. germinans both above- and below-ground, though the timing of these effects varied, with S. alterniflora showing more immediate declines than A. germinans. As hypothesized, the magnitude of the oil effect was reduced in the mixed plant species treatment compared to the single species treatment for A. germinans survival (12% vs. 21% reduction) and belowground biomass (19% vs. 71% reduction). In addition, when exposed to oil, A. germinans crown area and volume were greater in the mixed species treatment compared to the single species treatment at the end of the experiment. However, we did not detect any benefit of mixed species communities or S. alterniflora genotypic diversity for the S. alterniflora response to oil. Our results suggest that transition habitats in the northern Gulf of Mexico where A. germinans and S. alterniflora co-occur will be negatively impacted by future oiling events, but that they are no more susceptible, and perhaps slightly less so, than habitats dominated by either individual species.
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Humphreys, J. M., Elsner, J. B., Jagger, T. H., & Pau, S. (2017). A Bayesian geostatistical approach to modeling global distributions of Lygodium microphyllum under projected climate warming. Ecological Modelling, 363, 192–206.
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Hussain, J., Khaliq, T., Asseng, S., Saeed, U., Ahmad, A., & et al. (2020). Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop models in Pakistan. Climatic Change, .
Abstract: Comparing outputs of multiple climate and crop models is an option to assess the uncertainty in simulations in a changing climate. The use of multiple wheat models under five plausible future simulated climatic conditions is rarely found in literature. CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, CROPSIM-Wheat, and APSIM-Wheat models were calibrated with observed data form eleven sowing dates (15 October to 15 March) of irrigated wheat trails at Faisalabad, Pakistan, to explore close to real climate changing impacts and adaptations. Twenty-nine GCM of CMIP5 were used to generate future climate scenarios during 2040-2069 under RCP 8.5. These scenarios were categorized among five climatic conditions (Cool/Wet, Cool/Dry, Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Middle) on the basis of monthly changes in temperature and rainfall of wheat season using a stretched distribution approach (STA). The five GCM at Faisalabad and Layyah were selected and used in the wheat multimodels set to CO2 571 ppm. In the future, the temperature of both locations will elevate 2-3 °C under the five climatic conditions, although Faisalabad will be drier and Layyah will be wetter as compared with baseline conditions. Climate change impacts were quantified on wheat sown on different dates, including 1 November, 15 November, and 30 November which showed average reduction at semiarid and arid environment by 23.5%, 19.8%, and 31%, respectively. Agronomic and breeding options offset the climate change impacts and also increased simulated yield about 20% in all climatic conditions. The number of GCMs was considerably different in each quadrate of STA, showing the uncertainty in possible future climatic conditions of both locations. Uncertainty among wheat models was higher at Layyah as compared with Faisalabad. Under Hot/Dry and Hot/Wet climatic conditions, wheat models were the most uncertain to simulate impacts and adaptations. DSSAT-Nwheat and APSIM-Wheat were the most and least sensitive to changing temperature among years and climatic conditions, respectively.
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Johansen, J. L., Steffensen, J. F., & Jones, G. P. (2015). Winter temperatures decrease swimming performance and limit distributions of tropical damselfishes. Conserv Physiol, 3(1), cov039.
Abstract: Coral reefs within 10 degrees of the equator generally experience <= 3 degrees C seasonal variation in water temperature. Ectotherms that have evolved in these conditions are therefore expected to exhibit narrow thermal optima and be very sensitive to the greater thermal variability (>6 degrees C) experienced at higher latitudes (>= 10 degrees N/S). The impact of increased thermal variability on the fitness and distribution of thermally sensitive reef ectotherms is currently unknown. Here, we examine site-attached planktivorous coral reef damselfishes that rely on their physiological capacity to swim and forage in the water column year round. We focus on 10 species spanning four evolutionarily distinct genera from a region of the Great Barrier Reef that experiences >= 6 degrees C difference between seasons. Four ecologically important indicators showed reduced performance during the winter low (23 degrees C) compared with the summer peak (29 degrees C), with effect sizes varying among species and genera, as follows: (i) the energy available for activity (aerobic scope) was reduced by 35-45% in five species and three genera; (ii) the energetically most efficient swimming speed was reduced by 17% across all species; and (iii) the maximal critical swimming speed and (iv) the gait transition speed (the swimming mode predominantly used for foraging) were reduced by 16-42% in six species spanning all four genera. Comparisons with field surveys within and across latitudes showed that species-specific distributions were strongly correlated with these performance indicators. Species occupy habitats where they can swim faster than prevailing habitat currents year round, and >95% of individuals were observed only in habitats where the gait transition speed can be maintained at or above habitat currents. Thermal fluctuation at higher latitudes appears to reduce performance as well as the possible distribution of species and genera within and among coral reef habitats. Ultimately, thermal variability across latitudes may progressively cause sublethal changes to species performance and lead to a contraction of biogeographical range.
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Katsaros, K. B., A. Bentamy, M. Bourassa, N. Ebuchi, J. Gower, W. T. Liu, and S. Vignudelli. (2011). Climate Data Issues from an Oceanographic Remote Sensing Perspective. In Remote Sensing of the Changing Oceans (pp. 7–32). Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
Abstract: In this chapter we review several climatologically important variables
with a history of observation from spaceborne platforms. These include sea surface
temperature and wind vectors, altimetric estimates of sea surface height, energy and
water vapor fluxes at the sea surface, precipitation over the ocean, and ocean color.
We then discuss possible improvements in sampling for climate and climate change
definition. Issues of consistency of different data sources, archiving and distribution
of these types of data are discussed. The practical prospect of immediate international
coordination through the concept of virtual constellations is discussed and
applauded.
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Magdy, M., Werner, O., McDaniel, S. F., Goffinet, B., Ros, R. M., & Keurentjes, J. (2016). Genomic scanning using AFLP to detect loci under selection in the moss_Funaria hygrometrica_along a climate gradient in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Spain. Plant Biol J, 18(2), 280–288.
Abstract: The common cord moss Funaria hygrometrica has a worldwide distribution and thrives in a wide variety of environments. Here, we studied the genetic diversity in F. hygrometrica along an abiotic gradient in the Mediterranean high mountain of Sierra Nevada (Spain) using a genome scan method. Eighty-four samples from 17 locations from 24 to 2700 m were fingerprinted based on their amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) banding pattern. Using PCA and Bayesian inference we found that the genetic diversity was structured in three or four clusters, respectively. Using a genome scan method we identified 13 outlier loci, which showed a signature of positive selection. Partial Mantel tests were performed between the Euclidean distance matrices of geographic and climatic variables, versus the pair-wise genetic distance of the AFLP dataset and AFLP-positive outliers dataset. AFLP-positive outlier data were significantly correlated with the gradient of the climatic variables, suggesting adaptive variation among populations of F. hygrometrica along the Sierra Nevada Mountains. We highlight the additional analyses necessary to identify the nature of these loci, and their biological role in the adaptation process.
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Muhling, B. A., Brill, R., Lamkin, J. T., Roffer, M. A., Lee, S. K., Liu, Y. Y., et al. (2017). Projections of future habitat use by Atlantic bluefin tuna: mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models. ICES J Mar Sci, 74(3), 698–716.
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Narouei-Khandan, H. A., Halbert, S. E., Worner, S. P., & van Bruggen, A. H. C. (2016). Global climate suitability of citrus huanglongbing and its vector, the Asian citrus psyllid, using two correlative species distribution modeling approaches, with emphasis on the USA. Eur J Plant Pathol, 144(3), 655–670.
Abstract: Two approaches to correlative species distribution models (MaxEnt and Multi-Model Framework) were used to predict global and local potential distribution of huanglongbing (HLB) caused by Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) and its vector the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama). Long-term climate data were sourced from the Worldclim website. The global distribution of CLas and ACP was gathered from online databases, literature review and communication with specialists. Data on Clas and ACP distribution in the USA were not used in model calibration to allow model validation for independent locations. Both models successfully predicted Florida and coastal areas in the Gulf Coast states as highly suitable for Clas and ACP. The models also predicted that coastal areas in California were climatologically favorable for ACP and Clas, but less so than in Florida. When current USA presence data were included in the models, the suitable areas for ACP establishment expanded to the Central Valley, CA, while this area remained less conducive for CLas. Climate suitability was primarily related to rainfall and secondarily to temperature. Globally, both models predicted that climates in large areas of Africa, Latin America and North Australia were highly suitable for ACP and CLas, while the climate in the Mediterranean area was moderately suitable for ACP but less suitable for CLas, except for that in southern Portugal and Spain. Clas predictions from our models could be informative for countries like Australia, New Zealand, citrus-producing European countries and much of Africa, where CLas and D. citri have not been reported.
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Obeysekera, J., & Salas, J. D. (2016). Frequency of Recurrent Extremes under Nonstationarity. J. Hydrol. Eng., .
Abstract: The concepts and methods for planning and design of hydraulic structures subject to hydrologic extreme events that arise from nonstationary conditions have emerged in the last few years. The traditional approaches such as return period, risk, and reliability assume that extreme events are stationary and they are being reformulated for applications under nonstationary conditions. For this purpose, some of the previous developments have been based on the nonhomogeneous geometric distribution. The particular importance of this paper relates to the frequency of extreme events as time evolves, say for a given time period nn. For stationary extreme events, the number of events exceeding the design quantity (e.g., design flood) over the design life of the project, say nn, can be determined from the binomial distribution. The main objective of the research reported in this paper is to develop a conceptual framework so that the frequency of extreme events when the extremes are nonstationary can be determined from the Poisson binomial distribution. In addition, the use of the number of extreme events in the future as an alternative metric for hydrologic design is proposed with potential applications in flooding associated with both riverine and sea level extremes in coastal regions. The application of analytical concepts is demonstrated by using the annual flood maxima of the Assunpink Creek in New Jersey. Results suggest that the frequency of extreme events as an alternative metric for hydrologic design has a significant potential for applications in risk-based economic analysis of projects.
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Payne, N. L., Meyer, C. G., Smith, J. A., Houghton, J. D. R., Barnett, A., Holmes, B. J., et al. (2018). Combining abundance and performance data reveals how temperature regulates coastal occurrences and activity of a roaming apex predator. Glob Change Biol, 24(5), 1884–1893.
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Rypkema, D. C., Horvitz, C. C., & Tuljapurkar, S. (2019). How climate affects extreme events and hence ecological population models. Ecology, 100(6), e02684.
Abstract: Extreme events significantly impact ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency and/or magnitude with climate change. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions describe most ecologically relevant extreme events, including hurricanes, wildfires, and disease spread. In climate science, the GEV is widely used as an accurate and flexible tool over large spatial scales (>10(5) km(2) ) to study how changes in climate shift extreme events. However, ecologists rarely use the GEV to study how climate change affects populations. Here we show how to estimate a GEV for hurricanes at an ecologically relevant (<10(3) km(2) ) spatial scale, and use the results in a stochastic, empirically based, matrix population model. As a case study, we use an understory shrub in southeast Florida, USA with hurricane-driven dynamics and measure the effects of change using the stochastic population growth rate. We use sensitivities to analyze how population growth rate is affected by changes in hurricane frequency and intensity, canopy damage levels, and canopy recovery rates. Our results emphasize the importance of accurately estimating location-specific storm frequency. In a rapidly changing world, our methods show how to combine realistic extreme event and population models to assess ecological impacts and to prioritize conservation actions for at-risk populations.
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Sales, L. P., Sales LP, Galetti, M., Galetti M, Pires, M. M., & Pires MM. (2020). Climate and land-use change will lead to a faunal "savannization" on tropical rainforests. Glob Chang Biol, .
Abstract: Humans have fragmented, reduced or altered the biodiversity in tropical forests around the world. Climate and land-use change act synergistically, increasing drought and fire frequencies, converting several tropical rainforests into derived savannas, a phenomenon known as "savannization." Yet, we lack a full understanding of the faunal changes in response to the transformation of plant communities. We argue that the composition of vertebrate assemblages in ecotone regions of forest-savanna transitions from South America will be increasingly replaced by open savanna species, a phenomenon we name "faunal savannization." We combined projections from ecological niche models, habitat filter masks and dispersal simulations to forecast the distribution of 349 species of forest- and savanna-dwelling mammal species across South America. We found that the distribution of savanna species is likely to increase by 11%-30% and spread over lowland Amazon and Atlantic forests. Conversely, forest-specialists are expected to lose nearly 50% of their suitable ranges and to move toward core forest zones, which may thus receive an influx of more than 60 species on the move. Our findings indicate that South American ecotonal faunas might experience high rates of occupancy turnover, in a process parallel to that already experienced by plants. Climate-driven migrations of fauna in human-dominated landscapes will likely interact with fire-induced changes in plant communities to reshape the biodiversity in tropical rainforests worldwide.
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Santana, M. V., Zhang, Q., Nachabe, M. H., Xie, X., & Mihelcic, J. R. (2017). Could smart growth lower the operational energy of water supply? A scenario analysis in Tampa, Florida, USA. Landscape and Urban Planning, 164, 99–108.
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Subedi, S. C., Bhattarai, K. R., & Chauudhary, R. P. (2015). Distribution pattern of vascular plant species of mountains in Nepal and their fate against global warming. J. Mt. Sci., 12(6), 1345–1354.
Abstract: This study aims to find the altitudinal distribution pattern of vascular plant species reported from high mountain of Nepal (Manang) along the whole Himalayan elevation gradient, and evaluate their fate against climate change. Data was gathered from multiple sources, field investigations, literatures, and herbarium specimens. Altogether, 303 vascular plant species were reported from Manang. We used a published data to calculate distribution range of each species by interpolating between its upper and lower elevation limits. The relationship between elevation and species richness is elucidated by generalized linear model. The consequence of global warming upon Manang's vascular plant species was estimated based on projected temperature change for next century and adiabatic lapse rate along the elevation gradient of the Himalayas. The vascular plant species richness has a unimodel relationship with elevation along the whole elevation gradient of Nepal as well as in three biogeographical regions of Nepal. Vascular plants of Manang are found distributed from low land Terai to high alpine regions of Nepal and their elevation distribution range varies from 200 to 4700 m. Out of 303 vascular plants of Manang, only seven species might be affected if temperature increase by 1.5A degrees C, whereas at least 70 species will be affected with Received: 3 March 2015 Accepted: 17 July 2015 5A degrees C temperature increased. However, the majority of species (233 species) have wider distribution range (> 1000 m) and more than 5A degrees C temperature tolerance range, thus they are likely to be less affected from global warming by the end of 21(st) century.
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