Abdul-Aziz, O. I., & Al-Amin, S. (2016). Climate, land use and hydrologic sensitivities of stormwater quantity and quality in a complex coastal-urban watershed. Urban Water Journal, 13(3), 302–320.
Abstract: We determined reference hydro-climatic and land use/cover sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the Miami River Basin of Florida by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model. Potential storm runoff in the complex coastal-urban basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall; with stronger responses in the drier early winter and wetter late summer months. Basin runoff and pollutant loads showed moderate sensitivities to the hydrologic and land cover parameters; imperviousness and roughness exhibited more dominant influence than slope. Sensitivity to potential changes in land use patterns was relatively low. The changes in runoff and pollutants under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The quantified sensitivities can be useful for appropriate management of stormwater quantity and quality in complex urban basins under a changing climate, land use/cover, and hydrology around the world.
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Abiy, A. Z., & Melesse, A. M. (2017). Evaluation of watershed scale changes in groundwater and soil moisture storage with the application of GRACE satellite imagery data. Catena, 153, 50–60.
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Ajaz Ahmed, M. A., Abd-Elrahman, A., Escobedo, F. J., Cropper Jr., W. P., Martin, T. A., & Timilsina, N. (2017). Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 199, 158–171.
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Amanambu, A. C., Obarein, O. A., Mossa, J., Li, L., Ayeni, S. S., Balogun, O., et al. (2020). Groundwater system and climate change: Present status and future considerations. Journal of Hydrology, 589.
Abstract: Climate change will impact every aspect of biophysical systems and society. However, unlike other components of the climate system, the impact of climate change on the groundwater system has only recently received attention. This focus is due to the realization that groundwater is a vital freshwater resource crucial to global food and water security, and is essential in sustaining ecosystems and human adaptation to climate variability and change. This paper synthesizes findings on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the entire groundwater system and each component. Also, we appraise the use of coupled groundwater-climate and land surface models in groundwater hydrology as a means of improving existing knowledge of climate change-groundwater interaction, finding that most models anticipate decreases in groundwater recharge, storage and levels, particularly in the arid/semi-arid tropics. Reducing uncertainties in future climate projections and improving our understanding of the physical processes underlying models to improve their simulation of real-world conditions remain a priority for climate and Earth scientists. Despite the enormous progress made, there are still few and inadequate local and regional aquifer studies, especially in less developed regions. The paper proposes two key considerations. First, physical basis: the need for a deeper grasp of complex physical processes and feedback mechanism with the use of more sophisticated models. Second, the need to understand the socioeconomic dimensions of climate-groundwater interaction through multidisciplinary synergy, leading to the development of better groundwater-climate change adaptation strategies and modeling
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Anandhi, A., Omani, N., Chaubey, I., Horton, R., Bader, D., & Nanjundiah, R. S. (2016). Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries. Transactions of the ASABE, 59(6), 1715–1731.
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Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., et al. (2020). Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nat Commun, 11(1), 1918.
Abstract: We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
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Arumugam, S., Sabo, J. L., Larson, K. L., Seo, S. B., Sinha, T., Bhowmik, R., et al. (2017). Synthesis of Public Water Supply Use in the U.S.: Spatio-temporal Patterns and Socio-Economic Controls. Earth's Future, 5(7), 771–788.
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Barnes, B. B., Hu, C., Holekamp, K. L., Blonski, S., Spiering, B. A., Palandro, D., et al. (2014). Use of Landsat data to track historical water quality changes in Florida Keys marine environments. Remote Sensing of Environment, 140, 485–496.
Abstract: Satellite remote sensing has shown the advantage of water quality assessment at synoptic scales in coastal regions, yet modern sensors such as SeaWiFS or MODIS did not start until the late 1990s. For non-interrupted observations, only the Landsat series have the potential to detect major water quality events since the 1980s. However, such ability is hindered by the unknown data quality or consistency through time. Here, using the Florida Keys as a case study, we demonstrate an approach to identify historical water quality events through improved atmospheric correction of Landsat data and cross-validation with concurrent MODIS data. After aggregation of the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) 30-m pixels to 240-m pixels (to increase the signal-to-noise ratio), a MODIS-like atmospheric correction approach using the Landsat shortwave-infrared (SWIR) bands was developed and applied to the entire Landsat-5 TM data series between 1985 and 2010. Remote sensing reflectance (RRS) anomalies from Landsat (2 standard deviations from a pixel-specific monthly climatology) were found to detect MODIS RRS anomalies with over 90% accuracy for all three bands for the same period of 2002–2010. Extending this analysis for the entire Landsat-5 time-series revealed RRS anomaly events in the 1980s and 1990s, some of which are corroborated by known ecosystem changes due in part to changes in local freshwater flow. Indeed, TM RRS anomalies were shown to be useful in detecting shifts in seagrass density, turbidity increases, black water events, and phytoplankton blooms. These findings have large implications for ongoing and future water quality assessment in the Florida Keys as well as in many other coastal regions.
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Bastola, S., & Misra, V. (2015). Seasonal hydrological and nutrient loading forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States. Environmental Modelling & Software, 73, 90–102.
Abstract: We show useful seasonal deterministic and probabilistic prediction skill of streamflow and nutrient loading over watersheds in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) for the winter and spring seasons. The study accounts for forecast uncertainties stemming from the meteorological forcing and hydrological model uncertainty. Multi-model estimation from three hydrological models, each forced with an ensemble of forcing derived by matching observed analogues of forecasted quartile rainfall anomalies from a seasonal climate forecast is used. The attained useful hydrological prediction skill is despite the climate model overestimating rainfall by over 23% over these SEUS watersheds in December–May period. The prediction skill in the month of April and May is deteriorated as compared to the period from December–March (zero lead forecast). A nutrient streamflow rating curve is developed using a log linear tool for this purpose. The skill in the prediction of seasonal nutrient loading is identical to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecast.
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Bilskie, M. V., & Hagen, S. C. (2013). Topographic accuracy assessment of bare earth lidar-derived unstructured meshes. Advances in Water Resources, 52, 165–177.
Abstract: This study is focused on the integration of bare earth lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) data into unstructured (triangular) finite element meshes and the implications on simulating storm surge inundation using a shallow water equations model. A methodology is developed to compute root mean square error (RMSE) and the 95th percentile of vertical elevation errors using four different interpolation methods (linear, inverse distance weighted, natural neighbor, and cell averaging) to resample bare earth lidar and lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) onto unstructured meshes at different resolutions. The results are consolidated into a table of optimal interpolation methods that minimize the vertical elevation error of an unstructured mesh for a given mesh node density. The cell area averaging method performed most accurate when DEM grid cells within 0.25 times the ratio of local element size and DEM cell size were averaged. The methodology is applied to simulate inundation extent and maximum water levels in southern Mississippi due to Hurricane Katrina, which illustrates that local changes in topography such as adjusting element size and interpolation method drastically alter simulated storm surge locally and non-locally. The methods and results presented have utility and implications to any modeling application that uses bare earth lidar.
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Bilskie, M. V., Coggin, D., Hagen, S. C., & Medeiros, S. C. (2015). Terrain-driven unstructured mesh development through semi-automatic vertical feature extraction. Advances in Water Resources, 86, 102–118.
Abstract: A se ini-automated vertical feature terrain extraction algorithm is described and applied to a two-dimensional, depth-integrated, shallow water equation inundation model. The extracted features describe what are commonly sub-mesh scale elevation details (ridge and valleys), which may be ignored in standard practice because adequate mesh resolution cannot be afforded. The extraction algorithm is semi-automated, requires minimal human intervention, and is reproducible. A lidar-derived digital elevation model (DEM) of coastal Mississippi and Alabama serves as the source data for the vertical feature extraction. Unstructured mesh nodes and element edges are aligned to the vertical features and an interpolation algorithm aimed at minimizing topographic elevation error assigns elevations to mesh nodes via the DEM. The end result is a mesh that accurately represents the bare earth surface as derived from lidar with element resolution in the floodplain ranging from 15 m to 200 m. To examine the influence of the inclusion of vertical features on overland flooding, two additional meshes were developed, one without crest elevations of the features and another with vertical features withheld. All three meshes were incorporated into a SWAN+ADCIRC model simulation of Hurricane Katrina. Each of the three models resulted in similar validation statistics when compared to observed time-series water levels at gages and post-storm collected high water marks. Simulated water level peaks yielded an R-2 of 0.97 and upper and lower 95% confidence interval of similar to +/- 0.60 m. From the validation at the gages and HWM locations, it was not clear which of the three model experiments performed best in terms of accuracy. Examination of inundation extent among the three model results were compared to debris lines derived from NOAA post-event aerial imagery, and the mesh including vertical features showed higher accuracy. The comparison of model results to debris lines demonstrates that additional validation techniques are necessary for state-of-the-art flood inundation models. In addition, the semi-automated, unstructured mesh generation process presented herein increases the overall accuracy of simulated storm surge across the floodplain without reliance on hand digitization or sacrificing computational cost.
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Bledsoe, R. B., Bean, E. Z., Austin, S. S., & Peralta, A. L. (2020). A microbial perspective on balancing trade-offs in ecosystem functions in a constructed stormwater wetland. Ecological Engineering, 158.
Abstract: Green stormwater infrastructure, such as constructed wetlands (CWs), is a type of stormwater control measure that can decrease nutrient and pollutant loads from urban stormwater runoff. Wetland soil microorganisms provide nutrient and pollutant removal benefits which can also result in ecosystem disservices such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and can inadvertently exacerbate climate change. Microbial respiration by facultative anaerobes in anoxic conditions is the primary pathway for nitrogen removal (benefit). Similar anoxic conditions that support denitrifying microorganisms can also support obligate anaerobes that produce methane (CH4) via methanogenesis (disservice). We examined nitrogen removal potential, GHG production, and microbial community structure within permanently flooded and shallow land or temporarily-flooded areas of a stormwater CW to identify zones for CW design optimization. Results indicate that permanently flooded zones compared to shallow land zones are greater sources of CH4 emissions (80.80 ± 118.31, 2.32 ± 9.33 mg CH4-C m−2 h−1, respectively) and emit more carbon to the atmosphere (7161.27 kg CO2, 93.20 kg CO2 equivalents, respectively). However, nitrogen removal potential rates were similar across both flooded and shallow land zones (24.45 ± 20.18, 20.29 ± 15.14 ng N2O-N hr−1 g−1 dry soil, respectively). At this particular CW, reduction of permanently flooded zones within the wetland could decrease GHG emissions (disservice) without limiting nitrogen removal (benefit) potential of the wetland. Holistic development and design of stormwater control measures, which account for microbial activity, provides the opportunity to maximize benefits (i.e., nutrient and pollutant removal) and reduce disservices (i.e., GHG emissions) of green stormwater infrastructure.
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Bloetscher, F., Hoermann, S., & Berry, L. (2017). Adaptation of Florida's urban infrastructure to climate change. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 311–338). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.
Abstract: This chapter looks at how the impacts of climate change affect different parts of Florida. With more than 1500 miles of coastline that contains numerus differences in character between the state�s southern-most point in the Florida Keys to the northwest Florida Panhandle and northeast Florida in Jacksonville, it is easy to see why areas across the state are not all the same; temperature, rainfall rates, and even the potential for sea level rise can vary significantly depending on what part of the state one is in. For example, southeast Florida and the Tampa Bay area are already dealing with sea level rise issues, but there is much work to be done in order to assess the risks and help identify potential solutions. Efforts to adapt to rising seas will need to draw upon prior research and current work to develop tool box strategies that involve the hard and soft components. A background of impacts to water resources (less rainfall has been detected) will be discussed.
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Bloetscher, F., Polsky, C., Bolter, K., Mitsova, D., Garces, K., King, R., et al. (2016). Assessing Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Public Health and Vulnerable Populations in Southeast Florida and Providing a Framework to Improve Outcomes. Sustainability, 8(4), 315.
Abstract: In recent years, ongoing efforts by a multitude of universities, local governments, federal agencies, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been focused on sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation in Florida. However, within these efforts, there has been very little attention given to the potential impacts of sea-level rise on human health. The intent of this project is to identify populations in Southeast Florida that are most vulnerable to sea-level rise from a topographic perspective, determine how vulnerable these population are from a socio-economic perspective, identify potential health impacts, develop adaptation strategies designed to assist these communities, and produce an outreach effort that can be shared with other coastal communities. The location of socially-vulnerable and health-vulnerable populations are correlated, but at present they are not generally in the geographically-vulnerable areas. Projections indicate that they will become at risk in the future but the lack of data on emerging diseases makes public health assessments difficult. We propose a redefinition of "who is vulnerable?" to include health indicators and hard infrastructure solutions for flood and property protection. These tools can be used to help protect water resources from the impacts of climate change, which would, in turn, protect public health via drinking water supplies, and efforts to address social issues.
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Breithaupt, J. L., Smoak, J. M., Bianchi, T. S., Vaughn, D. R., Sanders, C. J., Radabaugh, K. R., et al. (2020). Increasing Rates of Carbon Burial in Southwest Florida Coastal Wetlands. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 125(2), e2019JG005349.
Abstract: Rates of organic carbon (OC) burial in some coastal wetlands appear to be greater in recent years than they were in the past. Possible explanations include ongoing mineralization of older OC or the influence of an unaccounted-for artifact of the methods used to measure burial rates. Alternatively, the trend may represent real acceleration in OC burial. We quantified OC burial rates of mangrove and coastal freshwater marshes in southwest Florida through a comparison of rates derived from Pb-210, Cs-137, and surface marker horizons. Age/depth profiles of lignin: OC were used to assess whether down-core remineralization had depleted the OC pool relative to lignin, and lignin phenols were used to quantify the variability of lignin degradation. Over the past 120 years, OC burial rates at seven sites increased by factors ranging from 1.4 to 6.2. We propose that these increases represent net acceleration. Change in relative sea-level rise is the most likely large-scale driver of acceleration, and sediment deposition from large storms can contribute to periodic increases. Mangrove sites had higher OC and lignin burial rates than marsh sites, indicating inherent differences in OC burial factors between the two habitat types. The higher OC burial rates in mangrove soils mean that their encroachment into coastal freshwater marshes has the potential to increase burial rates in those locations even more than might be expected from the acceleration trends. Regionally, these findings suggest that burial represents a substantially growing proportion of the coastal wetland carbon budget.
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Breyer, B., Zipper, S. C., & Qiu, J. (2018). Sociohydrological Impacts of Water Conservation Under Anthropogenic Drought in Austin, TX (USA): SOCIOHYDRO IMPACTS OF WATER CONSERVATION. Water Resour. Res., 54(4), 3062–3080.
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Brown, P. J., Meredith, M. P., Jullion, L., Naveira Garabato, A., Torres-Valdes, S., Holland, P., et al. (2014). Freshwater fluxes in the Weddell Gyre: results from delta O-18. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 372(2019), 20130298.
Abstract: Full-depth measurements of delta O-18 from 2008 to 2010 enclosing the Weddell Gyre in the Southern Ocean are used to investigate the regional freshwater budget. Using complementary salinity, nutrients and oxygen data, a four-component mass balance was applied to quantify the relative contributions of meteoric water (precipitation/glacial input), sea-ice melt and saline (oceanic) sources. Combination of freshwater fractions with velocity fields derived from a box inverse analysis enabled the estimation of gyre-scale budgets of both freshwater types, with deep water exports found to dominate the budget. Surface net sea-ice melt and meteoric contributions reach 1.8% and 3.2%, respectively, influenced by the summer sampling period, and -1.7% and +1.7% at depth, indicative of a dominance of sea-ice production over melt and a sizable contribution of shelf waters to deep water mass formation. A net meteoric water export of approximately 37 mSv is determined, commensurate with local estimates of ice sheet outflow and precipitation, and the Weddell Gyre is estimated to be a region of net sea-ice production. These results constitute the first synoptic benchmarking of sea-ice and meteoric exports from the Weddell Gyre, against which future change associated with an accelerating hydrological cycle, ocean climate change and evolving Antarctic glacial mass balance can be determined.
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Brown, T. - R. W., Low-Decarie, E., Pillsbury, R. W., Fox, G. A., & Scott, K. M. (2017). The effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on freshwater periphyton in a temperate stream. Hydrobiologia, 794(1), 333–346.
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Budny, M. L., & Benscoter, B. W. (2016). Shrub Encroachment Increases Transpiration Water Loss from a Subtropical Wetland. Wetlands, 36(4), 631–638.
Abstract: Encroachment of woody shrubs into graminoid-dominated wetlands can impact ecosystem carbon and water cycling due to differences in species physiology. In subtropical Florida, shortened hydroperiods have led to the expansion of Carolina willow (Salix caroliniana) in sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) marsh communities, potentially compromising ecosystem health. In this study, we assessed differences in leaf gas exchange between willow and sawgrass in Blue Cypress Marsh Conservation Area (BCMCA). Stomatal conductance (g (s)) and photosynthetic CO2 exchange (A (net)) were measured across a range of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; 0-2000 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)). Leaf area index (LAI; m(2) leaf m(-2) ground) was determined for each species and used in conjunction with land cover estimates to extrapolate leaf measurements to the plant canopy and assess the consequences of shrub encroachment on landscape atmospheric carbon and water exchange. Willow had higher average rates of leaf g (s) and A (net) than sawgrass. However, willow had lower water use efficiency (WUE) and greater LAI, resulting in greater loss of water through transpiration by willow populations and diminishing projected landscape water availability despite marginally increased C assimilation. Climate drying or potential positive feedbacks of shrubs to autogenic drying may accelerate shrub encroachment and increase risk of wetland loss.
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Cai, Y., Huang, W., Teng, F., & Gu, S. (2014). Effects of Changing Climate on Glacier Shrinkage and River Flow in the Upper Heihe River Basin, China. Journal of Coastal Research, 68, 121–128.
Abstract: Based on observed hydro-meteorological data and Remote Sensing images collected from 1990 to 2010, analysis has been conducted to investigate the effects of changing climate on glacier shrinkage and river flow in the upper Heihe River basin, an inland mountain river basin in China. Observed data indicates that the temperature in the study area shows the increase trend at the annual increase rate of 0.07 Celsius Degree/year. Spatial analysis of glacier coverage indicates that the glacier coverage area shrankby 52.93 km2 at the rate of approximately 2.65 km2/year from 1990 to 2010 due to the global climate change. Small glaciers with area less than 1 km2 account for over 87 % of the remaining glaciers in 2010, which will accelerate the recession of glaciers. Further analysis of river flows at Zhamashike Station shows the increase trend of the river flow at the 0.4 m3s−1/year. Through comparsion of variation characterisitcs of air temperatues, glaciers and runoff, the relationship between climate change, galciers shrinkage and runoff change is analyzed. It is indicated that the acute long-term loss of glacial storage will intensify water scarcity in the arid basin, notwithstanding the recent increase in runoff due to the melting of glaciers induced by global warming. It is urgent and important for the Heihe River basin to establish reasonable water resources management measures against glacier shrinkage and climate change.
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