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Abbas, G., Ahmad, S., Ahmad, A., Nasim, W., Fatima, Z., Hussain, S., et al. (2017). Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, 42–55.
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Ahmad, S., Abbas, G., Fatima, Z., Khan, R. J., Anjum, M. A., Ahmed, M., et al. (2017). Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan. J Agro Crop Sci, 203(5), 442–452.
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Anandhi, A., & Blocksome, C. E. (2017). Developing adaptation strategies using an agroecosystem indicator: Variability in crop failure temperatures. Ecological Indicators, 76, 30–41.
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Bekele, D., Alamirew, T., Kebede, A., Zeleke, G., & Melese, A. M. (2017). Analysis of rainfall trend and variability for agricultural water management in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. J Water Climate Change, 8(1), 127–141.
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Bilgen, S. I. and K., B.P. (2020). Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean. Environ. Res. Lett, 15.
Abstract: Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean
temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.
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Bousquet, J., Agache, I., Berger, U., Bergmann, K. - C., Besancenot, J. - P., Bousquet, P. J., et al. (2018). Differences in Reporting the Ragweed Pollen Season Using Google Trends across 15 Countries. Int Arch Allergy Immunol, 176, 181–188.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Google Trends (GT) searches trends of specific queries in Google, which potentially reflect the real-life epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. We compared GT terms related to ragweed pollen allergy in American and European Union countries with a known ragweed pollen season. Our aim was to assess seasonality and the terms needed to perform the GT searches and to compare these during the spring and summer pollen seasons. METHODS: We examined GT queries from January 1, 2011, to January 4, 2017. We included 15 countries with a known ragweed pollen season and used the standard 5-year GT graphs. We used the GT translation for all countries and the untranslated native terms for each country. RESULTS: The results of "pollen," "ragweed," and "allergy" searches differed between countries, but "ragweed" was clearly identified in 12 of the 15 countries. There was considerable heterogeneity of findings when the GT translation was used. For Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia, the GT translation was inappropriate. The country patterns of "pollen," "hay fever," and "allergy" differed in 8 of the 11 countries with identified "ragweed" queries during the spring and the summer, indicating that the perception of tree and grass pollen allergy differs from that of ragweed pollen. CONCLUSIONS: To investigate ragweed pollen allergy using GT, the term "ragweed" as a plant is required and the translation of "ragweed" in the native language needed.
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Deitch, M., Sapundjieff, M., & Feirer, S. (2017). Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World's Mediterranean-Climate Areas. Water, 9(4), 259.
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Dong, H., & Zou, X. (2014). Variations of sea ice in the Antarctic and Arctic from 1997-2006. Front. Earth Sci., 8(3), 385–392.
Abstract: Sea ice in polar areas is an important part of the global climate system. In order to obtain variations in sea ice extent for the Antarctic and Arctic, this paper analyzed the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) sea ice data product dating from March 1, 1997 to December 31, 2006. During this period, the sea ice extent increased in the Antarctic with the trend of (0.5467±0.4933)×104 km2·yr−1, and decreased in the Arctic with the trend of (−7.6125±0.3503)×104 km2·yr−1. In different sectors of the Antarctic, variations of the sea ice extent are different. The sea ice extent increased in the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean, but decreased in the Ross Sea, Western Pacific Ocean, and Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas.
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Elsner, J. B., & Elsner, S. C. (2020). More hots: Quantifying upward trends in the number of extremely hot days and nights in Tallahassee, Florida, USA: 18922018. Int J Climatol, 40(4), 1931–1942.
Abstract: Hot day and night occurrences in Tallahassee, Florida, USA are analysed and modelled. A hot day is defined as one during which the high temperature exceeds 100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C). A hot night is defined as one during which the low temperature fails to drop below 77 degrees F (25 degrees C). The U.S. National Weather Service Office (WSO) Tallahassee official record shows an upward trend in the number of hot days at a rate of 2.1% (+/-.96% margin of error [moe]) per year and a more pronounced upward trend in the number of hot nights at a rate of 4.5% (+/-.71% moe) per year. Increasingly frequent hot days and nights result from more and longer hot events (consecutive hot days/nights). Upward trends estimated from a 127-year time series of annual hot day/night counts, with the years prior to 1940 adjusted for location, are consistent with upward trends estimated over the shorter, more recent, period. With projected continued warming we expect more hot days and nights making uncomfortable and unhealthy conditions more common in the city.
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Elsner, J. B., Elsner, S. C., & Jagger, T. H. (2015). The increasing efficiency of tornado days in the United States. Clim Dyn, 45(3-4), 651–659.
Abstract: The authors analyze the historical record of tornado reports in the United States and find evidence for changes in tornado climatology possibly related to global warming. They do this by examining the annual number of days with many tornadoes and the ratio of these days to days with at least one tornado and by examining the annual proportion of tornadoes occurring on days with many tornadoes. Additional evidence of a changing tornado climate is presented by considering tornadoes in geographic clusters and by analyzing the density of tornadoes within the clusters. There is a consistent decrease in the number of days with at least one tornado at the same time as an increase in the number of days with many tornadoes. These changes are interpreted as an increasing proportion of tornadoes occurring on days with many tornadoes. Coincident with these temporal changes are increases in tornado density as defined by the number of tornadoes per area. Trends are insensitive to the begin year of the analysis. The bottom line is that the risk of big tornado days featuring densely concentrated tornado outbreaks is on the rise. The results are broadly consistent with numerical modeling studies that project increases in convective energy within the tornado environment.
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Kim, S., Saenz, B., Scanniello, J., Daly, K., & Ainley, D. (2018). Local climatology of fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Antarctic Science, 30(02), 125–142.
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Lee, S. - K., Volkov, D. L., Lopez, H., Cheon, W. G., Gordon, A. L., Liu, Y., et al. (2017). Wind-driven ocean dynamics impact on the contrasting sea-ice trends around West Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122(5), 4413–4430.
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Liang, H., Kuang, C., Olabarrieta, M., Gu, J., Song, H., & Dong, Z. (2020). Coastal morphodynamic responses of a mixed-energy and fine-sediment coast to different sea level rise trends. Coastal Engineering, .
Abstract: The effects of sea level rise (SLR) are relevant to the future evolution of coasts and estuaries. This study analyses the importance of different SLR trends on the morphological evolution of a mixed-energy fine-sediment coast (the Caofeidian Sea in Bohai Bay, China) using a validated numerical model. Results show that SLR produces spatially non-uniform relative morphodynamic responses, depending on the local coastline (uninterrupted or inlet-interrupted) and wave exposure. In the Caofeidian Sea, the uninterrupted coast is exposed to waves and tidal currents, and SLR reduces the accretion of tidal flats via heightening waves. On the inlet-interrupted coast, the morphological response to SLR is dominated by changes in tidal asymmetry and current velocity. In low SLR scenarios, the enhanced flood tidal asymmetry makes the system initially resilient to SLR. For high SLR scenarios, tidal sediment transport capacity is dampened by the reduction in current velocities, which accelerates the degradation of tidal flats along the inlet-interrupted coast. Differences among results with eight theoretical SLR trends show that the magnitude of SLR-induced morphological change is influenced by the target value (0.5 and 1.0 m) and rising mode (abrupt growth, linear growth, parabolic growth, and exponential growth) of the SLR. A newly-introduced parameter (equivalent SLR, ESLR), which reflects the time-weighted average value of an SLR trend for a period of time, shows a strong linear relationship with SLR-induced morphological change. Results suggest that the morphological response to other SLR scenarios for the Caofeidian Sea is expected to be interpolated from the ESLR ratios without performing extra time-consuming simulations.
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Lowe, R., Lowe R, Ryan, S. J., Ryan SJ, Mahon, R., Mahon R, et al. (2020). Building resilience to mosquito-borne diseases in the Caribbean. PLoS Biol, , e3000791.
Abstract: Small island developing states in the Caribbean are among the most vulnerable countries on the planet to climate variability and climate change. In the last 3 decades, the Caribbean region has undergone frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, and droughts. This has had a detrimental impact on population health and well-being, including an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Recent advances in climate science have enhanced our ability to anticipate hydrometeorological hazards and associated public health challenges. Here, we discuss progress towards bridging the gap between climate science and public health decision-making in the Caribbean to build health system resilience to extreme climatic events. We focus on the development of climate services to help manage mosquito-transmitted disease epidemics. There are numerous areas of ongoing biological research aimed at better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. Here, we emphasise additional factors that affect our ability to operationalise this biological understanding. We highlight a lack of financial resources, technical expertise, data sharing, and formalised partnerships between climate and health communities as major limiting factors to developing sustainable climate services for health. Recommendations include investing in integrated climate, health and mosquito surveillance systems, building regional and local human resource capacities, and designing national and regional cross-sectoral policies and national action plans. This will contribute towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and maximising regional development partnerships and co-benefits for improved health and well-being in the Caribbean.
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Lozier, M. S., Lozier MS, Li, F., Li F, Bacon, S., Bacon S, et al. (2019). A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic. Science, 363(6426).
Abstract: To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.
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Mahjabin, T., & Abdul-Aziz, O. I. (2020). Trends in the Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Regimes in Florida. Water, .
Abstract: Trends in the extreme rainfall regimes were analyzed at 24 stations of Florida for four analysis periods: 1950–2010, 1960–2010, 1970–2010, and 1980–2010. A trend-free pre-whitening approach was utilized to correct data for autocorrelations. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach were employed to detect and estimate trends in the magnitude of annual maximum rainfalls and in the number of annual above-threshold events (i.e., frequency). A bootstrap resampling approach was used to account for cross-correlations across sites and evaluate the global significance of trends at the 10% level (p-value ≤ 0.10). Dominant locally significant (p-value ≤ 0.10) increasing trends were found in the magnitudes of 1–12 h extreme rainfalls for the longest period, and in 6 h to 7 day rainfalls for the shortest period. The trends in 2–12 h rainfalls were also globally significant (i.e., exceeded the trends that could occur by chance). In contrast, globally significant decreasing trends were noted in the annual number of 1–3 h, 1–6 h, and 3–6 h extreme rainfalls during 1950–2010, 1960–2010, and 1980–2010, respectively. Trends in the number of 1–7 day extreme rainfalls were mixed, lacking global significance. Our findings would guide stormwater management in tropical/subtropical environments of Florida and around the world.
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Maleski, J. J., & Martinez, C. J. (2017). Historical trends in precipitation, temperature and drought in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basins. Int. J. Climatol., 37(2), 583–595.
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Martinez, C. J., Maleski, J. J., & Miller, M. F. (2012). Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 452-453, 259–281.
Abstract: permutation procedure. Field significant trends in seasonal precipitation were found in only the June-August and March-May seasons for the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods, respectively. Significant decreasing trends in monthly precipitation were found in the months of October and May for the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods, respectively. Field significant trends were found for all temperature variables for both time periods, with the largest number of stations with significant trends occurring in the summer and autumn months. Trends in mean, maximum, and minimum temperature were generally positive with a higher proportion of positive trends in the 1970-2009 period. The spatial coherence of trends in temperature range was generally less compared to other temperature variables, with a larger proportion of stations showing negative trends in the summer and positive trends at other times of the year and more negative trends found in the 1970-2009 period. Significant differences in temperature trends based on the surrounding land use were found for minimum temperature and temperature range in the 1970-2009 period indicating that data homogenization of the USHCN temperature data did not fully remove this influence. The evaluation of trends based on station exposure ratings shows significant differences in temperature variables in both the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods. Systematic changes in trends can be seen in the 1980s, the period of widespread conversion from liquid-in-glass to electronic measurement, indicating that some of the differences found may be due to uncorrected inhomogeneities. Since notable differences were found between differently rated stations pre-1940, a time which the present-day rating should have little to no influence, attribution of differences based on station rating should be done with caution.
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Misra, V., Michael, J. - P., Boyles, R., Chassignet, E. P., Griffin, M., & O'Brien, J. J. (2012). Reconciling the spatial distribution of the surface temperature trends in the Southeastern United States. J. Climate, 25(10), 3610–3618.
Abstract: This study attempts to explain the considerable spatial heterogeneity in the observed linear trends of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from station observations in the southeastern (SE) United States (specifically Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina). In a majority of these station sites, the warming trends in Tmin are stronger in urban areas relative to rural areas. The linear trends of Tmin in urban areas of the SE United States is approximately 7F/century compared to about 5.5F/century in rural areas. The trends in Tmax show weaker warming (or stronger cooling) trends with irrigation, while trends in Tmin show stronger warming trends. This functionality of the temperature trends with land features also shows seasonality, with the boreal summer season showing the most consistent relationship in the trends of both Tmax and Tmin. Our study reveals that linear trends in Tmax in the boreal summer season show a cooling trend of about 0.5F/century with irrigation, while the same observing stations on an average display warming trends in Tmin of about 3.5F/century. The seasonality and the physical consistency of these relationships with existing theories may suggest that urbanization and irrigation have non-negligible influence on the spatial heterogeneity of the surface temperature trends over the SE United States. The study also delineates the caveats and limitations of our conclusions due to the potential influence of perceived non-climatic discontinuities (which incidentally could also have a seasonal cycle) that have not been accounted for.
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Parfitt,, Ummenhofer,, Buckley,, Hansen,, & DArrigo,. (2020). Distinct seasonal climate drivers revealed in a network of tree-ring records from Labrador, Canada. Clim Dyn, 54(3-4), 1897–1911.
Abstract: Traditionally, high-latitude dendroclimatic studies have focused on measurements of total ring width (RW), with the maximum density of the latewood (MXD) serving as a complementary variable. Whilst MXD has typically improved the strength of the growing season climate connection over that of RW, its measurements are costly and time-consuming. Recently, a less costly and more time-efficient technique to extract density measurements has emerged, based on lignin's propensity to absorb blue light. This Blue Intensity (BI) methodology is based on image analyses of finely-sanded core samples, and the relative ease with which density measurements can be extracted allows for significant increases in spatio-temporal sample depth. While some studies have attempted to combine RW and MXD as predictors for summer temperature reconstructions, here we evaluate a systematic comparison of the climate signal for RW and latewood BI (LWBI) separately, using a recently updated and expanded tree ring database for Labrador, Canada. We demonstrate that while RW responds primarily to climatic drivers earlier in the growing season (January-April), LWBI is more responsive to climate conditions during late spring and summer (May-August). Furthermore, RW appears to be driven primarily by large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with the Pacific North American pattern, whilst LWBI is more closely associated with local climate conditions, themselves linked to the behaviour of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Lastly, we demonstrate that anomalously wide or narrow growth rings consistently respond to the same climate drivers as average growth years, whereas the sensitivity of LWBI to extreme climate conditions appears to be enhanced.
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