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Abbas, G., Ahmad, S., Ahmad, A., Nasim, W., Fatima, Z., Hussain, S., et al. (2017). Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, 42–55.
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Ahmad, S., Abbas, G., Fatima, Z., Khan, R. J., Anjum, M. A., Ahmed, M., et al. (2017). Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan. J Agro Crop Sci, 203(5), 442–452.
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Anandhi, A., & Blocksome, C. E. (2017). Developing adaptation strategies using an agroecosystem indicator: Variability in crop failure temperatures. Ecological Indicators, 76, 30–41.
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Bekele, D., Alamirew, T., Kebede, A., Zeleke, G., & Melese, A. M. (2017). Analysis of rainfall trend and variability for agricultural water management in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. J Water Climate Change, 8(1), 127–141.
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Bousquet, J., Agache, I., Berger, U., Bergmann, K. - C., Besancenot, J. - P., Bousquet, P. J., et al. (2018). Differences in Reporting the Ragweed Pollen Season Using Google Trends across 15 Countries. Int Arch Allergy Immunol, 176, 181–188.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Google Trends (GT) searches trends of specific queries in Google, which potentially reflect the real-life epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. We compared GT terms related to ragweed pollen allergy in American and European Union countries with a known ragweed pollen season. Our aim was to assess seasonality and the terms needed to perform the GT searches and to compare these during the spring and summer pollen seasons. METHODS: We examined GT queries from January 1, 2011, to January 4, 2017. We included 15 countries with a known ragweed pollen season and used the standard 5-year GT graphs. We used the GT translation for all countries and the untranslated native terms for each country. RESULTS: The results of "pollen," "ragweed," and "allergy" searches differed between countries, but "ragweed" was clearly identified in 12 of the 15 countries. There was considerable heterogeneity of findings when the GT translation was used. For Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia, the GT translation was inappropriate. The country patterns of "pollen," "hay fever," and "allergy" differed in 8 of the 11 countries with identified "ragweed" queries during the spring and the summer, indicating that the perception of tree and grass pollen allergy differs from that of ragweed pollen. CONCLUSIONS: To investigate ragweed pollen allergy using GT, the term "ragweed" as a plant is required and the translation of "ragweed" in the native language needed.
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Deitch, M., Sapundjieff, M., & Feirer, S. (2017). Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World's Mediterranean-Climate Areas. Water, 9(4), 259.
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Dong, H., & Zou, X. (2014). Variations of sea ice in the Antarctic and Arctic from 1997-2006. Front. Earth Sci., 8(3), 385–392.
Abstract: Sea ice in polar areas is an important part of the global climate system. In order to obtain variations in sea ice extent for the Antarctic and Arctic, this paper analyzed the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) sea ice data product dating from March 1, 1997 to December 31, 2006. During this period, the sea ice extent increased in the Antarctic with the trend of (0.5467±0.4933)×104 km2·yr−1, and decreased in the Arctic with the trend of (−7.6125±0.3503)×104 km2·yr−1. In different sectors of the Antarctic, variations of the sea ice extent are different. The sea ice extent increased in the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean, but decreased in the Ross Sea, Western Pacific Ocean, and Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas.
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Elsner, J. B., Elsner, S. C., & Jagger, T. H. (2015). The increasing efficiency of tornado days in the United States. Clim Dyn, 45(3-4), 651–659.
Abstract: The authors analyze the historical record of tornado reports in the United States and find evidence for changes in tornado climatology possibly related to global warming. They do this by examining the annual number of days with many tornadoes and the ratio of these days to days with at least one tornado and by examining the annual proportion of tornadoes occurring on days with many tornadoes. Additional evidence of a changing tornado climate is presented by considering tornadoes in geographic clusters and by analyzing the density of tornadoes within the clusters. There is a consistent decrease in the number of days with at least one tornado at the same time as an increase in the number of days with many tornadoes. These changes are interpreted as an increasing proportion of tornadoes occurring on days with many tornadoes. Coincident with these temporal changes are increases in tornado density as defined by the number of tornadoes per area. Trends are insensitive to the begin year of the analysis. The bottom line is that the risk of big tornado days featuring densely concentrated tornado outbreaks is on the rise. The results are broadly consistent with numerical modeling studies that project increases in convective energy within the tornado environment.
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Kim, S., Saenz, B., Scanniello, J., Daly, K., & Ainley, D. (2018). Local climatology of fast ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Antarctic Science, 30(02), 125–142.
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Lee, S. - K., Volkov, D. L., Lopez, H., Cheon, W. G., Gordon, A. L., Liu, Y., et al. (2017). Wind-driven ocean dynamics impact on the contrasting sea-ice trends around West Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122(5), 4413–4430.
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Lozier, M. S., Lozier MS, Li, F., Li F, Bacon, S., Bacon S, et al. (2019). A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic. Science, 363(6426).
Abstract: To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.
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Maleski, J. J., & Martinez, C. J. (2017). Historical trends in precipitation, temperature and drought in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa and Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basins. Int. J. Climatol., 37(2), 583–595.
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Martinez, C. J., Maleski, J. J., & Miller, M. F. (2012). Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 452-453, 259–281.
Abstract: permutation procedure. Field significant trends in seasonal precipitation were found in only the June-August and March-May seasons for the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods, respectively. Significant decreasing trends in monthly precipitation were found in the months of October and May for the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods, respectively. Field significant trends were found for all temperature variables for both time periods, with the largest number of stations with significant trends occurring in the summer and autumn months. Trends in mean, maximum, and minimum temperature were generally positive with a higher proportion of positive trends in the 1970-2009 period. The spatial coherence of trends in temperature range was generally less compared to other temperature variables, with a larger proportion of stations showing negative trends in the summer and positive trends at other times of the year and more negative trends found in the 1970-2009 period. Significant differences in temperature trends based on the surrounding land use were found for minimum temperature and temperature range in the 1970-2009 period indicating that data homogenization of the USHCN temperature data did not fully remove this influence. The evaluation of trends based on station exposure ratings shows significant differences in temperature variables in both the 1895-2009 and 1970-2009 time periods. Systematic changes in trends can be seen in the 1980s, the period of widespread conversion from liquid-in-glass to electronic measurement, indicating that some of the differences found may be due to uncorrected inhomogeneities. Since notable differences were found between differently rated stations pre-1940, a time which the present-day rating should have little to no influence, attribution of differences based on station rating should be done with caution.
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Misra, V., Michael, J. - P., Boyles, R., Chassignet, E. P., Griffin, M., & O'Brien, J. J. (2012). Reconciling the spatial distribution of the surface temperature trends in the Southeastern United States. J. Climate, 25(10), 3610–3618.
Abstract: This study attempts to explain the considerable spatial heterogeneity in the observed linear trends of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from station observations in the southeastern (SE) United States (specifically Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina). In a majority of these station sites, the warming trends in Tmin are stronger in urban areas relative to rural areas. The linear trends of Tmin in urban areas of the SE United States is approximately 7F/century compared to about 5.5F/century in rural areas. The trends in Tmax show weaker warming (or stronger cooling) trends with irrigation, while trends in Tmin show stronger warming trends. This functionality of the temperature trends with land features also shows seasonality, with the boreal summer season showing the most consistent relationship in the trends of both Tmax and Tmin. Our study reveals that linear trends in Tmax in the boreal summer season show a cooling trend of about 0.5F/century with irrigation, while the same observing stations on an average display warming trends in Tmin of about 3.5F/century. The seasonality and the physical consistency of these relationships with existing theories may suggest that urbanization and irrigation have non-negligible influence on the spatial heterogeneity of the surface temperature trends over the SE United States. The study also delineates the caveats and limitations of our conclusions due to the potential influence of perceived non-climatic discontinuities (which incidentally could also have a seasonal cycle) that have not been accounted for.
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Ponte, R. M., Carson, M., Cirano, M., Domingues, C. M., Jevrejeva, S., Marcos, M., et al. (2019). Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level. Front. Mar. Sci., 6.
Abstract: A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our limited capacity to predict SL change at the coast on relevant spatial and temporal scales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on monthly to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of the problem, and review available observing systems informing on coastal SL. We also review the ability of existing models and data assimilation systems to estimate coastal SL variations and of atmosphere-ocean global coupled models and related regional downscaling efforts to project future SL changes. We discuss (1) observational gaps and uncertainties, and priorities for the development of an optimal and integrated coastal SL observing system, (2) strategies for advancing model capabilities in forecasting short-term processes and projecting long-term changes affecting coastal SL, and (3) possible future developments of sea level services enabling better connection of scientists and user communities and facilitating assessment and decision making for adaptation to future coastal SL change.
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Teegavarapu, R. S. V., & Nayak, A. (2017). Evaluation of long-term trends in extreme precipitation: Implications of in-filled historical data use for analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 550, 616–634.
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Weng, F., & Zou, X. (2014). 30-Year atmospheric temperature record derived by one-dimensional variational data assimilation of MSU/AMSU-A observations. Clim Dyn, 43(7-8), 1857–1870.
Abstract: In the past, satellite observations of the microwave radiation emitted from the atmosphere have been directly utilized for deriving the climate tends of vertical-layer-averaged atmospheric temperatures. This study presents the 30-year atmospheric temperature trend derived by one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) data assimilation of Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (MSU/AMSU-A) observations. Firstly, the radiance measurements from MSU on board the early National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-6 to NOAA-14 and AMSU-A on board NOAA-15 to -19 have been inter-calibrated to form a fundamental climate data record. A 1D-Var method is then employed to establish the thematic climate data record of atmospheric temperature profiles that are appropriate for climate change study. Verification of the MSU/AMSU-A derived temperature profiles with collocated Global Positioning System radio occultation data confirms a reasonable good accuracy of the derived atmospheric temperature profiles in the troposphere and low stratosphere. Finally, the global climate trend of the atmospheric temperature in clear-sky conditions is deduced, showing not only a global warming in the troposphere and a cooling in the stratosphere, but also a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the low troposphere.
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Weng, F., Zou, X., & Qin, Z. (2014). Uncertainty of AMSU-A derived temperature trends in relationship with clouds and precipitation over ocean. Clim Dyn, 43(5-6), 1439–1448.
Abstract: Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations from a series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites have been extensively utilized for estimating the atmospheric temperature trend. For a given atmospheric temperature condition, the emission and scattering of clouds and precipitation modulate MSU and AMSU-A brightness temperatures. In this study, the effects of the radiation from clouds and precipitation on AMSU-A derived atmospheric temperature trend are assessed using the information from AMSU-A window channels. It is shown that the global mean temperature in the low and middle troposphere has a larger warming rate (about 20–30 % higher) when the cloud-affected radiances are removed from AMSU-A data. It is also shown that the inclusion of cloud-affected radiances in the trend analysis can significantly offset the stratospheric cooling represented by AMSU-A channel 9 over the middle and high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere.
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Zhang, M., Zhang, Y., Shu, Q., Zhao, C., Wang, G., Wu, Z., et al. (2018). Spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean. Science of The Total Environment, 612, 1141–1148.
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Zhang, W., & Kirtman, B. (2019). Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46(6), 3387–3397.
Abstract: Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air-sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state-of-the-art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics.
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