Elsner, J. B., & Elsner, S. C. (2020). More hots: Quantifying upward trends in the number of extremely hot days and nights in Tallahassee, Florida, USA: 18922018. Int J Climatol, 40(4), 1931–1942.
Abstract: Hot day and night occurrences in Tallahassee, Florida, USA are analysed and modelled. A hot day is defined as one during which the high temperature exceeds 100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C). A hot night is defined as one during which the low temperature fails to drop below 77 degrees F (25 degrees C). The U.S. National Weather Service Office (WSO) Tallahassee official record shows an upward trend in the number of hot days at a rate of 2.1% (+/-.96% margin of error [moe]) per year and a more pronounced upward trend in the number of hot nights at a rate of 4.5% (+/-.71% moe) per year. Increasingly frequent hot days and nights result from more and longer hot events (consecutive hot days/nights). Upward trends estimated from a 127-year time series of annual hot day/night counts, with the years prior to 1940 adjusted for location, are consistent with upward trends estimated over the shorter, more recent, period. With projected continued warming we expect more hot days and nights making uncomfortable and unhealthy conditions more common in the city.
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Yuan, S., Stainsby, W., Li, M., Xu, K., Waite, M., Zimmerle, D., et al. (2019). Future energy scenarios with distributed technology options for residential city blocks in three climate regions of the United States. Applied Energy, 237, 60–69.
Abstract: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the electricity sector is going through two main transitions. First, the electric grid is integrating variable renewable generation, such as wind and solar. Second, demands are changing as heating systems are shifting from gas-based to high efficiency electric heat pumps. This paper provides a comparative analysis of future energy scenarios with distributed technology options including (1) wind and solar generation; (2) heat pumps for heating and cooling; and (3) battery and thermal storage in representative residential blocks in four cities, including New York City, New York; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Tallahassee, Florida; and Fort Collins, Colorado. These cities are located in three climate regions with different weather patterns which result in different demand profiles and different local renewable resources. Future energy demand scenarios with 100% penetration of air source or ground source heat pumps for heating and cooling are estimated for the four residential city blocks. Under a future scenario with all electric demand with air source heat pumps and high renewable energy penetration, this study finds that (1) the optimal wind and solar generation mix varies with location and amount of storage and (2) battery storage is more cost effective than thermal storage, ground source heat pumps, and overbuilt renewable generation.
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