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Feeley, K. J., Silman, M. R., & Franklin, J. (2016). Disappearing climates will limit the efficacy of Amazonian protected areas.
Amazonian forests support high biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services. Unfortunately, these forests are under extreme pressure from land use change and other anthropogenic disturbances. A recent study combined data from an Amazon-wide network of forest inventory plots with spatially explicit deforestation models to predict that by 2050, 36% or 57% of species will be 'globally threatened', as defined by IUCN Red List criteria, due to deforestation under Increased-Governance or Business-As-Usual scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the number of threatened species will drop by 29-44% if no deforestation occurs within protected areas. However, even the best-protected areas of the Amazon may still be susceptible to the effects of climate change and rising temperatures. To illustrate the potential dangers of climate change for Amazonian parks, we calculated the percentage of land area within all officially designated protected areas of tropical South America that will or will not have future temperature analogs under various scenarios of temperature change and park connectivity. We show that depending on the rate of warming and degree of connectivity, about 19-67% of protected areas will not have any temperature analogs in the near future (2050s). These results help to emphasize that protected areas are not immune to the effects of climate change and that large portions of Amazonian protected areas include 'disappearing climates'. In the face of these disappearing climates, the biggest determinant of many species' extinction risks may be their ability to migrate through non-protected habitats.
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Thornton, D. H., Branch, L. C., & Wiersma, Y. (2019). Transboundary mammals in the Americas: Asymmetries in protection challenge climate change resilience.
Aim Transboundary conservation is key to addressing poleward range shifts that will result from climate change. At a species level, transboundary coordination may be hindered by inter-country differences in protection of species. We explored how commonly mammal ranges in the Americas were transboundary, identified transboundary mammals whose poleward versus equatorial range limits fell in different countries and examined asymmetries in listing status of mammals. Location The Americas. Methods We intersected mammal ranges with country boundaries to identify transboundary species. We then determined the conservation status of mammals at the national level by compiling a database of all national-level listing status documents across the Americas and at the global level through use of the IUCN Red List database. Results Over 62% (1,114 species) of mammals were transboundary in any cardinal direction, and over 50% (850 species) had poleward and equatorial range limits in different countries. Of those 850, 26% experienced asymmetric listing, with one range limit designated at a higher listing status than the other at the national level. Mismatches between national and global listing also were apparent at equatorial and poleward range edges. These same general patterns held when our analyses were restricted to globally at-risk mammals. Main Conclusions Although listing status of a species does not necessarily equate to actual level of protection, these results demonstrate that formal listings of species vary substantially across country boundaries, and in particular at the latitudinal range extremes. Asymmetries in listing could indicate that species are under less threat in one country compared to another or could reflect different levels of concern in the two countries although population status is similar. Regardless, asymmetries in listing could challenge cross-border connectivity and climate change resilience in the face of species range shifts and indicate the need for greater transboundary coordination in species management.
IUCN Red List
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