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Publications

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Barreca, A., Deschenes, O., & Guldi, M. (2018). Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates. Demography, 55(4), 1269–1293.
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Abstract: We estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. We find that days with a mean temperature above 80 degrees F cause a large decline in birth rates 8 to 10 months later. Unlike prior studies, we demonstrate that the initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months, implying that populations mitigate some of the fertility cost by shifting conception month. This shift helps explain the observed peak in late-summer births in the United States. We also present new evidence that hot weather most likely harms fertility via reproductive health as opposed to sexual activity. Historical evidence suggests that air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of high temperatures.
Keywords: Birth rates; Birth seasonality; Fertility; Temperature
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Bjorndal, K. A., Bolten, A. B., Chaloupka, M., Saba, V. S., Bellini, C., Marcovaldi, M. A. G., et al. (2017). Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. Glob Change Biol, 23(11), 4556–4568.
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Keywords: Caretta caretta; Chelonia mydas; ecological regime shifts; Eretmochelys imbricata; multivariate ENSO index; sea surface temperature; seagrass; somatic growth rates
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Bjorndal, K. A., Chaloupka, M., Saba, V. S., Diez, C. E., van Dam, R. P., Krueger, B. H., et al. (2016). Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective. Ecosphere, 7(5), e01279.
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Abstract: Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills -3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = -0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs.
Keywords: climate effects; coral reefs; Eretmochelys imbricata; Greater Caribbean; marine turtles; multivariate ENSO index; sea surface temperature; somatic growth rates; West Atlantic
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Breithaupt, J. L., Smoak, J. M., Bianchi, T. S., Vaughn, D. R., Sanders, C. J., Radabaugh, K. R., et al. (2020). Increasing Rates of Carbon Burial in Southwest Florida Coastal Wetlands. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 125(2), e2019JG005349.
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Abstract: Rates of organic carbon (OC) burial in some coastal wetlands appear to be greater in recent years than they were in the past. Possible explanations include ongoing mineralization of older OC or the influence of an unaccounted-for artifact of the methods used to measure burial rates. Alternatively, the trend may represent real acceleration in OC burial. We quantified OC burial rates of mangrove and coastal freshwater marshes in southwest Florida through a comparison of rates derived from Pb-210, Cs-137, and surface marker horizons. Age/depth profiles of lignin: OC were used to assess whether down-core remineralization had depleted the OC pool relative to lignin, and lignin phenols were used to quantify the variability of lignin degradation. Over the past 120 years, OC burial rates at seven sites increased by factors ranging from 1.4 to 6.2. We propose that these increases represent net acceleration. Change in relative sea-level rise is the most likely large-scale driver of acceleration, and sediment deposition from large storms can contribute to periodic increases. Mangrove sites had higher OC and lignin burial rates than marsh sites, indicating inherent differences in OC burial factors between the two habitat types. The higher OC burial rates in mangrove soils mean that their encroachment into coastal freshwater marshes has the potential to increase burial rates in those locations even more than might be expected from the acceleration trends. Regionally, these findings suggest that burial represents a substantially growing proportion of the coastal wetland carbon budget.
Keywords: SEA-LEVEL CHANGE; SEDIMENT ACCUMULATION RATES; HIGH-PRECISION MEASUREMENTS; ORGANIC-CARBON; MANGROVE FORESTS; EARLY DIAGENESIS; GROUNDWATER DISCHARGE; SURFACE ELEVATION; SOIL CARBON; BLUE CARBON
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Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Long, A. J., & Milne, G. A. (2019). PALeo constraints on SEA level rise (PALSEA): Ice-sheet and sea-level responses to past climate warming. Quaternary Science Reviews, 212, 28–32.
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Abstract: Here we summarize the motivation and issues surrounding the responses of ice sheets and sea level to past climate warming as part of the PALeo constraints on SEA level rise (PALSEA) working group. Papers in this special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews focus on the timescale of glaciations during the late Pliocene, the magnitude of ice-sheet fluctuations and volume leading up to and during the last glacial maximum, the timing and persistence of ice-sheet impacts on deglacial and future relative sea-level change, and relative sea-level change during peak interglacial climate. A more dynamic cryosphere is noted under both late Pliocene and last glacial cycle climate conditions, while relative sea-level changes during the last deglaciation appear to correspond closely with individual ice-sheet deglaciation. Lastly, relative sea-level change during peak interglacial conditions may have fluctuated by as much as a meter, although the sources of such variability (Greenland, Antarctica or elsewhere) remain elusive. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; LAURENTIDE; PLIOCENE; HISTORY; DEGLACIATION; VOLUMES; RETREAT; RECORD; RATES; COAST
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Leatherman, S. P. (2018). Coastal Erosion and the United States National Flood Insurance Program. Ocean & Coastal Management, 156, 35–42.
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Keywords: Coastal erosion rates; Erosion mapping; Beachfront properties; Coastal management
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Schile, L. M., Kauffman, J. B., Crooks, S., Fourqurean, J. W., Glavan, J., & Megonigal, J. P. (2017). Limits on carbon sequestration in arid blue carbon ecosystems. Ecol Appl, 27(3), 859–874.
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Keywords: Abu Dhabi; Arthrocnemum macrostachyum; Avicennia marina; blue carbon; carbon pools; carbon stocks; Halodule uninervis; Halophila ovalis; Halophila stipulacea; United Arab Emirates
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