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Arruda, W., Zharkov, V., Deremble, B., Nof, D., & Chassignet, E. (2014). A New Model of Current Retroflection Applied to the Westward Protrusion of the Agulhas Current. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44(12), 3118–3138.
Abstract: The dynamics of current retroflection and rings shedding are not yet fully understood. In this paper, the authors develop an analytical model of the Agulhas Current retroflection dynamics using three simple laws: conservation of volume, momentum balance, and Bernoulli’s principle. This study shows that, for a retroflecting current with a small Rossby number, this theoretical model is in good agreement with numerical simulations of a reduced-gravity isopycnal model. Otherwise, the retroflection position becomes unstable and quickly propagates upstream, leaving a chain of eddies in its path. On the basis of these findings, the authors hypothesize that the westward protrusion of the Agulhas retroflection and the local “zonalization” of the Agulhas Current after it passes the Agulhas Bank are stable only for small Rossby numbers. Otherwise, the retroflection shifts toward the eastern slope of the Agulhas Bank, where its position stabilizes due to the slanted configuration of the slope. This study shows that this scenario is in good agreement with several high-resolution numerical models.
Keywords: Models and modeling; Large eddy simulations
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Erb, M. P., Broccoli, A. J., Graham, N. T., Clement, A. C., Wittenberg, A. T., & Vecchi, G. A. (2015). Response of the Equatorial Pacific Seasonal Cycle to Orbital Forcing. J. Climate, 28(23), 9258–9276.
Abstract: The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean's seasonal cycle to orbital forcing is explored using idealized simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM in which eccentricity, obliquity, and the longitude of perihelion are altered while other boundary conditions are maintained at preindustrial levels. The importance of ocean dynamics in the climate response is investigated using additional simulations with a slab ocean version of the model. Precession is found to substantially influence the equatorial Pacific seasonal cycle through both thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, while changes in obliquity have only a small effect. In the precession experiments, western equatorial Pacific SSTs respond in a direct thermodynamic manner to changes in insolation, while the eastern equatorial Pacific is first affected by the propagation of thermocline temperature anomalies from the west. These thermocline signals result from zonal wind anomalies associated with changes in the strength of subtropical anticyclones and shifts in the regions of convection in the western equatorial Pacific. The redistribution of heat from these thermocline signals, aided by the direct thermodynamic effect of insolation anomalies, results in large changes to the strength and timing of the eastern equatorial Pacific seasonal cycle. A comparison of 10 CMIP5 mid-Holocene experiments, in which the primary forcing is due to precession, shows that this response is relatively robust across models. Because equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have local climate impacts as well as nonlocal impacts through teleconnections, these results may be important to understanding paleoclimate variations both inside and outside of the tropical Pacific.
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Lopez, H., Dong, S., Lee, S. - K., & Goni, G. (2016). Decadal Modulations of Interhemispheric Global Atmospheric Circulations and Monsoons by the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. J. Climate, 29(5), 1831–1851.
Abstract: This study presents a physical mechanism on how low-frequency variability of the South Atlantic meridional heat transport (SAMHT) may influence decadal variability of atmospheric circulation. A multicentury simulation of a coupled general circulation model is used as basis for the analysis. The highlight of the findings herein is that multidecadal variability of SAMHT plays a key role in modulating global atmospheric circulation via its influence on interhemispheric redistributions of momentum, heat, and moisture. Weaker SAMHT at 30 degrees S produces anomalous ocean heat divergence over the South Atlantic, resulting in negative ocean heat content anomalies about 15-20 years later. This forces a thermally direct anomalous interhemispheric Hadley circulation, transporting anomalous atmospheric heat from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and moisture from the SH to the NH, thereby modulating global monsoons. Further analysis shows that anomalous atmospheric eddies transport heat northward in both hemispheres, producing eddy heat flux convergence (divergence) in the NH (SH) around 15 degrees-30 degrees, reinforcing the anomalous Hadley circulation. The effect of eddies on the NH (SH) poleward of 30 degrees depicts heat flux divergence (convergence), which must be balanced by sinking (rising) motion, consistent with a poleward (equatorward) displacement of the jet stream. This study illustrates that decadal variations of SAMHT could modulate the strength of global monsoons with 15-20 years of lead time, suggesting that SAMHT is a potential predictor of global monsoon variability. A similar mechanistic link exists between the North Atlantic meridional heat transport (NAMHT) at 30 degrees N and global monsoons.
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Rowell, D. P., Booth, B. B. B., Nicholson, S. E., & Good, P. (2015). Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa. J. Climate, 28(24), 9768–9788.
Abstract: The long rains season of East Africa has recently experienced a series of devastating droughts, whereas the majority of climate models predict increasing rainfall for the coming decades. This has been termed the East African climate paradox and has implications for developing viable adaptation policies. A logical framework is adopted that leads to six key hypotheses that could explain this paradox. The first hypothesis that the recent observed trend is due to poor quality data is promptly rejected. An initial judgment on the second hypothesis that the projected trend is founded on poor modeling is beyond the scope of a single study. Analysis of a natural variability hypothesis suggests this is unlikely to have been the dominant driver of recent droughts, although it may have contributed. The next two hypotheses explore whether the balance between competing forcings could be changing. Regarding the possibility that the past trend could be due to changing anthropogenic aerosol emissions, the results of sensitivity experiments are highly model dependent, but some show a significant impact on the patterns of tropical SST trends, aspects of which likely caused the recent long rains droughts. Further experiments suggest land-use changes are unlikely to have caused the recent droughts. The last hypothesis that the response to CO2 emissions is nonlinear explains no more than 10% of the contrast between recent and projected trends. In conclusion, it is recommended that research priorities now focus on providing a process-based expert judgment of the reliability of East Africa projections, improving the modeling of aerosol impacts on rainfall, and better understanding the relevant natural variability.
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Zhu, P. (2015). On the Mass-Flux Representation of Vertical Transport in Moist Convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 72(12), 4445–4468.
Abstract: This study investigates to what extent the convective fluxes formulated within the mass-flux framework can represent the total vertical transport of heat and moisture in the cloud layer and whether the same approach can be extended to represent the vertical momentum transport using large-eddy simulations (LESs) of six well-documented cloud cases, including both deep and shallow convection. Two methods are used to decompose the LES-resolved vertical fluxes: decompositions based on the coherent convective features using the mass-flux top-hat profile and by two-dimensional fast Fourier transform (2D-FFT) in terms of wavenumbers. The analyses show that the convective fluxes computed using the mass-flux formula can account for most of the total fluxes of conservative thermodynamic variables in the cloud layer of both deep and shallow convection for an appropriately defined convective updraft fraction, a result consistent with the mass-flux dynamic view of moist convection and previous studies. However, the mass-flux approach fails to represent the vertical momentum transport in the cloud layer of both deep and shallow convection. The 2D-FFT and other analyses suggest that such a failure results from a number of reasons: 1) the complicated momentum distribution in the cloud layer cannot be well described by the simple top-hat profile; 2) shear-driven small-scale eddies are more efficient momentum carriers than coherent convective plumes; 3) the phase relationship between vertical velocity and horizontal momentum components is substantially different from that between vertical velocity and conservative thermodynamic variables; and 4) the structure of horizontal momentum can change substantially from case to case even in the same climate regime.
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