Abstract: A comparative analysis of two sets of downscaled simulations of the current climate and the future climate projections over Peninsular Florida (PF) and the West Florida Shelf (WFS) is presented to isolate the role of high-resolution air-sea coupling. In addition, the downscaled integrations are also compared with the much coarser, driving global model projection to examine the impact of grid resolution of the models. The WFS region is habitat for significant marine resources, which has both commercial and recreational value. Additionally, the hydroclimatic features of the WFS and PF contrast each other. For example, the seasonal cycle of surface evaporation in these two regions are opposite in phase to one another. In this study, we downscale the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulations of the late twentieth century and the mid-twenty-first century (with reference concentration pathway 8.5 emission scenario) using an atmosphere only Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10 km grid resolution. In another set, we downscale the same set of CCSM4 simulations using the coupled RSM-Regional Ocean Model System (RSMROMS) at 10 km grid resolution. The comparison of the twentieth century simulations suggest significant changes to the SST simulation over WFS from RSMROMS relative to CCSM4, with the former reducing the systematic errors of the seasonal mean SST over all seasons except in the boreal summer season. It may be noted that owing to the coarse resolution of CCSM4, the comparatively shallow bathymetry of the WFS and the sharp coastline along PF is poorly defined, which is significantly rectified at 10 km grid spacing in RSMROMS. The seasonal hydroclimate over PF and the WFS in the twentieth century simulation show significant bias in all three models with CCSM4 showing the least for a majority of the seasons, except in the wet June-July-August (JJA) season. In the JJA season, the errors of the surface hydroclimate over PF is the least in RSMROMS. The systematic errors of surface precipitation and evaporation are more comparable between the simulations of CCSM4 and RSMROMS, while they differ the most in moisture flux convergence. However, there is considerable improvement in RSMROMS compared to RSM simulations in terms of the seasonal bias of the hydroclimate over WFS and PF in all seasons of the year. This suggests the potential rectification impact of air-sea coupling on dynamic downscaling of CCSM4 twentieth century simulations. In terms of the climate projection in the decades of 2041-2060, the RSMROMS simulation indicate significant drying of the wet season over PF compared to moderate drying in CCSM4 and insignificant changes in the RSM projection. This contrasting projection is also associated with projected warming of SSTs along the WFS in RSMROMS as opposed to warming patterns of SST that is more zonal and across the WFS in CCSM4.

Abstract: Despite overall global declines, mangroves are expanding into and within many subtropical wetlands, leading to heterogeneous cover of marsh-mangrove coastal vegetation communities near the poleward edge of mangroves' ranges. Coastal wetlands are globally important carbon sinks, yet the effects of shifts in mangrove cover on organic-carbon (OC) storage remains uncertain. We experimentally maintained black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) or marsh vegetation in patches (n = 1,120, 3 x 3 m) along a gradient in mangrove cover (0-100%) within coastal wetland plots (n = 10, 24 x 42 m) and measured changes in OC stocks and fluxes. Within patches, above and belowground biomass (OC) was 1,630% and 61% greater for mangroves than for recolonized marshes, and soil OC was 30% greater beneath mangrove than marsh vegetation. At the plot scale, above and belowground biomass increased linearly with mangrove cover but soil OC was highly variable and unrelated to mangrove cover. Root ingrowth was not different in mangrove or marsh patches, nor did it change with mangrove cover. After 11 months, surface OC accretion was negatively related to plot-scale mangrove cover following a high-wrack deposition period. However, after 22 months, accretion was 54% higher in mangrove patches, and there was no relationship to plot-scale mangrove cover. Marsh (Batis maritima) leaf and root litter had 1,000% and 35% faster breakdown rates (k) than mangrove (A. germinans) leaf and root litter. Soil temperatures beneath mangroves were 1.4 degrees C lower, decreasing aboveground k of fast- (cellulose) and slow-decomposing (wood) standard substrates. Wood k in shallow soil (0-15 cm) was higher in mangrove than marsh patches, but vegetation identity did not impact k in deeper soil (15-30 cm). We found that mangrove cover enhanced OC storage by increasing biomass, creating more recalcitrant organic matter and reducing k on the soil surface by altering microclimate, despite increasing wood k belowground and decreasing allochthonous OC subsidies. Our results illustrate the importance of mangroves in maintaining coastal OC storage, but also indicate that the impacts of vegetation change on OC storage may vary based on ecosystem conditions, organic-matter sources, and the relative spatiotemporal scales of mangrove vegetation change.

Abstract: Accelerated sea level rise was observed along the U.S. eastern seaboard south of Cape Hatteras during 2010-2015 with rates 5 times larger than the global average for the same time period. Simultaneously, sea levels decreased rapidly north of Cape Hatteras. In this study, we show that accelerated sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was predominantly caused by a similar to 1 degrees C (0.2 degrees C/year) warming of the Florida Current during 2010-2015 that was linked to large-scale changes in the Atlantic Warm Pool. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was caused by an increase in atmospheric pressure combined with shifting wind patterns, with a small contribution from cooling of the water column over the continental shelf. Results presented here emphasize that planning and adaptation efforts may benefit from a more thorough assessment of sea level changes induced by regional processes. Plain Language Summary During 2010-2015, sea level rose rapidly along the U.S. East Coast between Key West and Cape Hatteras, causing extensive flooding to large urban areas such as Miami. Simultaneously, sea level was observed to decline north of Cape Hatteras at an accelerated rate. Here we investigate what caused the rapid sea level changes recorded during 2010-2015 at the U.S. East Coast. In this study, we show that sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by the warming of waters carried by the Florida Current during 2010-2015, which can raise coastal sea level through thermal expansion of the water column. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by changes in atmospheric conditions, such as by an increase in atmospheric pressure, which affect sea level due to variations in the overall weight of the atmosphere over a certain location, and by changing wind conditions that can pile up, or push ocean water away from the coast.

Abstract: Reef fish resources provide numerous ecosystem services in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) large marine ecosystem. Artificial reefs (ARs) have been distributed across the nGOM in attempts to enhance reef fish habitat and increase fishery productivity, but few data exist to distinguish ecological from fishery functions of ARs compared to natural reefs (NRs), particularly at the regional scale. Therefore, we conducted remotely operated vehicle surveys of reef fish communities at 47 reef sites within a similar to 20,000 km(2) area of the nGOM shelf and tested the effect of reef type (NR versus AR), depth (<= 35 or >35 m), relief (<= 2m or >2 m), and complexity (low or high) on fish diversity and community structure as well as trophic guild- and species-specific densities. Twenty-one species were present at >20%, nine at >50%, and three at >75% of study reefs. Fishery species (i.e., Lutjanus campechanus, Serioia dumerili, and Rhomboplites aurorubens) and invasive Pterois volitans were frequently observed (>50% of sites) or numerically dominant, especially at ARs. Main effects did not significantly affect the presence of specific species or trophic guilds, but interactions among factors significantly affected species- and trophic guild-specific densities. Our results indicate that effects of habitat characteristics on fish communities are more nuanced than previously described. Fish communities are moderately similar at the majority of sites but specific habitat characteristics can interact to dramatically affect densities of some species, particularly those that depend on complex structures for refuge. Simple ARs tend to concentrate high densities of a few important fishery species with low densities of other small demersal reef fishes. Complex NRs with high relief also support high densities of planktivorous fishery species but greatly increase densities of small, demersal, non-fishery species that directly utilize complex reef structure for refuge.

Abstract: Florida’s peninsula extending ~700 km north-to-south, extensive shoreline (2,100 km), and broad carbonate platform create a diversity of marine habitats (estuaries, lagoons, bays, beach, reef, shelf, pelagic) along the coast, shelf, and deep ocean that are influenced by continental, oceanographic, and atmospheric processes all predicted to shift with a rapidly changing climate. Future changes of the global ocean circulation could result in a 25% reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), leading to a subsequent slowing of Florida’s regional/local current systems (Yucatan, Loop, Florida and Gulf Stream) and eddies. While downscaled climate models suggest that slowing of the Loop Current by 20-25% during the 21st century will moderate the increase in surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico to 1.4oC - 2.8oC, this warming is predicted to have wide-ranging consequences for Florida’s marine habitats (e.g., enhanced coral bleaching, lower O2 in surface waters, increased harmful algal blooms, reduced phytoplankton and fisheries production, and lower sea turtle reproduction). The reduction in the AMOC is also predicted to reduce hurricane frequency, albeit with increased intensity (2-11%) due to ocean warming. Climate projections affecting Florida’s oceans include rises in sea level, changes in coastal circulation impacting larval and nutrient transport, changes in marine biogeochemistry including ocean acidification, and loss of coastal wetlands that protect Florida’s coastline. Understanding the consequences of these projected climate impacts and gaining a more complete understanding of complex changes in atmospheric processes (e.g., ENSO, AMO, convection, wind shear), air-sea interaction, currents, and stratification under a changing climate is critical over the next few decades to prepare and protect the state of Florida.

Abstract: Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Abstract: This study examines the integrated influence of sea level rise (SLR) and future morphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast including seven embayments and three ecologically and economically significant estuaries. A large-domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate astronomic tides for present and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). Future conditions were simulated by imposing four SLR scenarios to alter hydrodynamic boundary conditions and updating shoreline position and dune heights using a probabilistic model that is coupled to SLR. Under the highest SLR scenario, tidal amplitudes within the bays increased as much as 67% (10.0cm) because of increases in the inlet cross-sectional area. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated that tidal propagation was faster in the future scenarios within most of the bays. Maximum tidal velocities increased in all of the bays, especially in Grand Bay where velocities doubled under the highest SLR scenario. In addition, the ratio of the maximum flood to maximum ebb velocity decreased in the future scenarios (i.e., currents became more ebb dominant) by as much as 26% and 39% in Weeks Bay and Apalachicola, respectively. In Grand Bay, the flood-ebb ratio increased (i.e., currents became more flood dominant) by 25% under the lower SLR scenarios, but decreased by 16% under the higher SLR as a result of the offshore barrier islands being overtopped, which altered the tidal prism. Results from this study can inform future storm surge and ecological assessments of SLR, and improve monitoring and management decisions within the NGOM.

Abstract: The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill likely affected ecosystem services in the Gulf of Mexico. To test this hypothesis, we configured a “Ecopath with Ecosim” model and quantified the effects of commercial fisheries and particulate organic carbon (POC) sequestration from 2004 to 2014, encompassing DWH. The yield of five functional groups were used to calculate changes in fishery catch and detritus biomass as a proxy for carbon buried offshore to calculate POC sequestration. The model predicted an estimated loss of $15–16 million per year (&#8722;13%) in stone crab fisheries but estimated gains of up to $20 million per year (11%) in the other four groups from 2010 to 2012. Model simulations estimated a loss of $1200 (&#8722;0.15%) in the ability of the Northern Gulf of Mexico offshore environment to sequester POC in 2010. The DWH simulation led to an increase in fisheries overall and decrease in POC sequestration ecosystem services in 2010.

Abstract: A stochastic production frontier was used to measure the initial (i.e., bi-weekly) economic effects of hurricanes on commercial grouper (Serranidae) production in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the United States Gulf of Mexico from 2005 to 2009. We estimated the economic effects of productivity losses associated with specific hurricanes on the commercial grouper fleet. We also calculated the economic effects due to productivity losses during an entire hurricane season at the regional level. The empirical model controls for input levels as well as other factors affecting production to isolate the initial economic effect caused by hurricanes from other non-weather-related factors. The empirical results revealed that hurricanes striking the Gulf of Mexico coastline from 2005 to 2009 had a negative effect on the production of the commercial grouper fleet. The results also demonstrated the relative importance of inputs and regulations on fish production.

Abstract: Temporal variations of the seasonal sea level harmonics throughout the 20th and early 21st century along the United States Gulf coast are investigated. A significant amplification of the annual sea level cycle from the 1990s onwards is found, with both lower winter and higher summer sea levels in the eastern Gulf. Ancillary data are used to build a set of multiple regression models to explore the mechanisms driving the decadal variability and recent increase in the annual cycle. The results suggest that changes in the air surface temperature towards warmer summers and colder winters and changes in mean sea level pressure explain most of the amplitude increase. The changes in the seasonal sea level cycle are shown to have almost doubled the risk of hurricane induced flooding associated with sea level rise since the 1990s for the eastern and north-eastern Gulf of Mexico coastlines.