Anandhi, A., Sharma, A., & Sylvester, S. (2018). Can meta‐analysis be used as a decision‐making tool for developing scenarios and causal chains in eco‐hydrological systems? Case study in Florida. Ecohydrology, .
Abstract: To date, there are a high volume of studies concerning climate change impact assessments in ecosystems. Meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loops have been used as tools in these assessments as well as in decision making either individually or combined in pairs. There exists a need to develop decision support tools that improve the linkage between climate‐impacts research and planning, management, adaptation, and mitigation decisions by providing quantitative and timely information to stakeholders and managers. The overall goal is to address this need. A specific objective was to develop a decision support tool in eco‐hydrological applications that combine three components: meta‐analysis, scenario development, and causal chains/loop. The developed tool is novel, warranted, and timely. The use of the tool is demonstrated for Florida. The meta‐analysis of 32 studies revealed precipitation changes ranged between +30% and −40%, and temperature changes ranged from +6°C to −3°C for Florida. Seven incremental scenarios were developed at 10% increments in the precipitation change range and nine scenarios with 1°C increments in the temperature change range (driving forces). The causal chains/loops were developed using Driver‐Pressure‐State‐Impact‐Response framework for selected ecosystems and environment (e.g., agroecosystem, mangroves, water resources, and sea turtles) in Florida. The driving force puts pressure on the ecosystem or environment impacting their state, which in turn had a response (e.g., mitigation and adaptation strategies). The framework used indicators selected from studies on climate impact assessments (meta‐analysis and others) for the selected ecosystems as well as author expertise on the topic to develop the chains/loops. The decision tool is applicable to stakeholders and any ecosystem within and outside of Florida.
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Ankersen, T., Pownall, B., & Menashe, A. (2020). Adaptation Action Areas in Florida: The State of Play. The Reporter: The Environmental and Land Use Law Section, XL(3), 1, 17–21.
Abstract: This article briefly describes the origins of the 2011 Adaptation Action Areas (AAA legislation.5We identify every local government that has amended its comprehensive plan to include AAA language and characterize it as either aspirational or operational - depending on whether spatially explicit boundaries have been drawn. We also seek to determine the dominant 'theme' behind the AAA language, based on its focus on the built environment, natural resources and social equity, and whether the AAA is a regulatory instrument, or is focused on implementing projects. We conclude that despite nearly 10 years of existence, the promise of AAA's as a policy planning tool has yet to be fully realized. We further conclude that given its implicit goal of priority setting, there is insufficient attention paid to social equity as a basis for creating and implementing AAA's. We caution that this analysis is based on readily available public information, and AAA planning is occurring that has yet to reach fruition. In addition, because the statute is likely not preemptive,7spatially explicit sub-jurisdictional adaptation planning may be occurring outside of the AAA framework.
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Archer, M. R., Shay, L. K., & Johns, W. E. (2017). The Surface Velocity Structure of the Florida Current in a Jet Coordinate Frame. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122(11), 9189–9208.
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Atzori, R., & Fyall, A. (2018). Climate change denial: vulnerability and costs for Florida's coastal destinations. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 1(2), 137–149.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the vulnerability of Florida’s coastal destinations to climate change and the costs of the adaptation measures required to cope with the impacts of climate change in a range of current and future scenarios.
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Atzori, R., Fyall, A., & Miller, G. (2018). Tourist responses to climate change: Potential impacts and adaptation in Florida's coastal destinations. Tourism Management, 69.
Abstract: Florida, one of the world's most visited tourist destinations, holds one of the most vulnerable positions as a result of climate change. Through a quantitative survey, this study gathered the responses of 432 tourists who had previously visited Florida, with a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. The examination of the tourist perspective showed the presence of ample sunshine and factors related to beach comfort as the reasons for choosing the destination. In a scenario were beaches disappear and tropical diseases become more widespread, the majority of respondents stated they would choose a different destination. However, respondents would reconsider their intentions if adaptation measures such as reduced prices, coastal habitat conservation and measures to protect beaches from erosion and coastal areas from inundation were in place. The findings suggest that seasonal and geographic shifts in tourism demand could be mitigated by the implementation of adaptation measures at the destination level.
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Atzori, R., Fyall, A., Tasci, A. D. A., & Fjelstul, J. (2019). The Role of Social Representations in Shaping Tourist Responses to Potential Climate Change Impacts: An Analysis of Floridas Coastal Destinations. Journal of Travel Research, 58(8), 1373–1388.
Abstract: Beside the physical impacts of climate change, society's perceptions of climate change and its reactions at different stages of decision-making levels have become critical issues. This study presents the perspective of tourists who have previously visited Florida, in a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. It is proposed that existing social representations about climate change, and therefore individuals' attitudes, views, and beliefs about this phenomenon, need to be taken into account when examining tourists' stated responses to climate change and subsequent potential shifts in tourism demand. The existence of a relationship between tourists' visitation intentions toward a destination impacted by climate change and the social representations they hold with respect to climate change itself offers an alternative way to look at tourists' stated responses. This study concludes that predicting shifts in tourism demand based on tourist visitation intentions requires caution when dealing with climate change.
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Bailey, A. M., Ober, H. K., Sovie, A. R., & McCleery, R. A. (2017). Impact of land use and climate on the distribution of the endangered Florida bonneted bat. Journal of Mammalogy, 98(6), 1586–1593.
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Bercel,, & Kranz,. (2019). Insights into carbon acquisition and photosynthesis in Karenia brevis under a range of CO2 concentrations. Progress in Oceanography, 172, 65–76.
Abstract: Karenia brevis is a marine dinoflagellate commonly found in the Gulf of Mexico and important both ecologically and economically due to its production of the neurotoxin brevetoxin, which can cause respiratory illness in humans and widespread death of marine animals. K. brevis strains have previously shown to be sensitive to changes in CO2, both in terms of growth as well as toxin production. Our study aimed to understand this sensitivity by measuring underlying mechanisms, such as photosynthesis, carbon acquisition, and photophysiology. K. brevis (CCFWC-126) did not show a significant response in growth, cellular composition of carbon and nitrogen, nor in photosynthetic rates between pCO2 concentrations of 150, 400, or 780 µatm. However, a strong response in its acquisition of inorganic carbon was found. Half saturation values for CO2 increased from 1.5 to 3.3 µM, inorganic carbon preference switched from HCO- to CO2 (14-56% CO2 usage), and external carbonic anhydrase activity was downregulated by 23% when comparing low and high pCO2. We conclude that K. brevis must employ an efficient and regulated CO2 concentrating mechanism (CCM) to maintain constant carbon fixation and growth across pCO2 levels. No statistically significant correlation between CO2 and brevetoxin content was found, yet a positive trend with enhanced pCO2 was detected. This study is the first explaining how this socioeconomically important species is able to efficiently supply inorganic carbon for photosynthesis, which can potentially prolong bloom situations. This study also highlights that elevated CO2 concentrations, as projected for a future ocean, can affect underlying physiological processes of K. brevis, some of which could lead to increases in cellular brevetoxin production and therefore increased impacts on coastal ecosystems and economies.
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Boucek, R., Barrientos, C., Bush, M. R., Gandy, D. A., Wilson, K. L., & Young, J. M. (2017). Trophic state indicators are a better predictor of Florida bass condition compared to temperature in Florida's freshwater bodies. Environ Biol Fish, 100(10), 1181–1192.
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Brachert, T. C., Reuter, M., Krüger, S., Lohmann, H., Petuch, E. J., & Klaus, J. S. (2014). A 4.2 million years record of interglacial paleoclimate from sclerochronological data of Florida carbonate platform (Early Pliocene to recent). Global and Planetary Change, 120, 54–64.
Abstract: The climate of the Pliocene and early Pleistocene was in a transient mode from generally warmer climates of the early Neogene to the maximum glaciations of the late Quaternary. Increasingly severe coolings occurred episodically in the high latitudes, whereas the low latitudes remained warm. For the last 5 million years (Ma), rather constant sea surface temperatures have been recorded in the Western Atlantic warm pool; however, direct climate data on temperature and humidity from shallow near-shore settings are lacking so far. In this study we present a synthesis of 26 new and 46 (incl. 24 recent) published sclerochronogical stable isotope records (18O/16O, 13C/12C) with a sub-annual resolution from reef corals (z-corals) and mollusks. The fossils were sampled from shallow-water carbonate deposits of the Florida carbonate platform and belong to 12 interglacial time-slices spanning collectively the period from the Early Pliocene to the recent (4.2 to 0 Ma). Although platform carbonates are believed to undergo rapid diagenetic stabilization due to the dissolution of metastable aragonite shells, we show that there is still a wealth of material to be recovered for large-scale systematic geochemical studies. We rule out significant diagenetic modifications of the stable isotope data because measured 18O/16O ratios from z-corals and mollusks converted into temperature give consistent results. Accordingly, annual mean temperatures have risen during the last 4.2 Ma from ~ 23 °C to 26 °C in open waters, given the modern seawater value of 18O/16O is valid for Neogene. However, the global water value has changed due to long-term increases in ice volume even during interglacials, equivalent with a 2.3 °C temperature rise. A net 5.3 °C temperature increase over the last 4.2 Ma is inconsistent with the deep-sea record, however, and suggestive of an overall increase of humidity effects in measured 18O/16O instead. Particularly cool temperatures have been registered at 1.9 and 2.5 Ma, but combined 18O/16O and 13C/12C data identify these as artifacts from intensified evaporation which fits the overall restricted marine aspect of the fossil fauna in these time-slices. Seasonal temperature contrasts seem to have been high within restricted settings (~ 11 °C) and small in mixed open marine units (7–8 °C). Although this finding fits the modern situation with coastal environments undergoing 14 °C seasonal change and the reef tract 7–9 °C only, circumstantial evidence suggests reconstructions to be biased by sub-annual changes in the local seawater value for 18O/16O. Since 18O/16O seasonality has increased over the last 4.2 Ma, we suggest the humidity of modern Florida to have evolved from dryer precursor climates of past interglacials, whereas temperatures in essence remained the same. This trend possibly represents the expression of the growing relevance of the Bermudas High pressure cell. Glacial climates of Florida cannot be reconstructed using our methodology as the Florida platform was emergent during sea level lowstands.
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Braun de Torrez, E. C., Braun de Torrez EC, Frock, C. F., Frock CF, Boone, W. W. 4th, Boone WW 4th, et al. (2020). Seasick: Why Value Ecosystems Severely Threatened by Sea-Level Rise? Estuaries Coast, .
Abstract: Climate change will alter natural areas on a global scale within the next century. In areas vulnerable to climate change, scientists are regularly challenged to justify the resources needed for research and conservation. We face what may seem like a losing battle, especially in low-lying coastal areas where sea-level rise is predicted to severely degrade or destroy many ecosystems. Using sea-level rise in the low-elevation state of Florida, USA, as a case study, we argue that it is critical to remain engaged in the research, restoration, and conservation of natural areas threatened by climate change for as long as possible. These areas will continue to provide invaluable ecological and societal benefits. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding climate change forecasts and their ecological impact leaves room for optimism, research, and actions that are necessary for developing adaptation plans and mitigating further sea-level rise and other consequences of climate change. We urge scientists and particularly students beginning their careers not to forego research and conservation efforts of these imperiled lands but to face this unprecedented challenge with determination, creativity, and solution-based strategies.
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Briceno, H., Miller, G., & Davis, S. E. (2014). Relating Freshwater Flow with Estuarine Water Quality in the Southern Everglades Mangrove Ecotone. Wetlands, 34(S1), 101–111.
Abstract: Florida Bay is more saline than it was historically, and reduced freshwater flows may lead to more phosphorus inputs to the mangrove ecotone from the marine end-member. This is important given plans to restore freshwater flow into eastern Florida Bay. We investigated the relationships between salinity, nutrients, and hydrologic variables in the mangrove ecotone of Taylor Slough. We expected that total phosphorus (TP) would increase with salinity, reflecting a downstream marine source, while total nitrogen (TN) would increase with flow in the mangrove ecotone. Despite expectations of increased flows improving the ecological health of lower Taylor Slough and Florida Bay, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) dynamics may shift in response to new conditions of flow and salinity as well as organic carbon, N, and P availability. Our results showed that TP concentrations are more discharge-driven while TN is more variable and potentially derived from different sources along the flow path from the freshwater Everglades marshes to Florida Bay. Increased flow of freshwater through Taylor Slough will likely decrease TP concentrations in this historically oligotrophic and P-limited ecosystem. However, more studies along the mangrove ecotone is needed to understand how increased flows will affect nitrogen dynamics relative to phosphorus.
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Briceno, H. O., & Boyer, J. N. (2010). Climatic Controls on Phytoplankton Biomass in a Sub-tropical Estuary, Florida Bay, USA. Estuaries and Coasts, 33(2), 541–553.
Abstract: The extraction of climatic signals from time series of biogeochemical data is further complicated in estuarine regions because of the dynamic interaction of land, ocean, and atmosphere. We explored the behavior of potential global and regional climatic stressors to isolate specific shifts or trends, which could have a forcing role on the behavior of biogeochemical descriptors of water quality and phytoplankton biomass from Florida Bay, as an example of a sub-tropical estuary. We performed statistical analysis and subdivided the bay into six zones having unique biogeochemical characteristics. Significant shifts in the drivers were identified in all the chlorophyll a time series. Chlorophyll a concentrations closely follow global forcing and display a generalized declining trend on which seasonal oscillations are superimposed, and it is only interrupted by events of sudden increase triggered by storms which are followed by a relatively rapid return to pre-event conditions trailing again the long-term trend.
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Cahyanto, I., Pennington-Gray, L., Thapa, B., Srinivasan, S., Villegas, J., Matyas, C., et al. (2016). Predicting information seeking regarding hurricane evacuation in the destination. Tourism Management, 52, 264–275.
Abstract: The study examined the roles of tourists' risk beliefs, connectedness, hurricane knowledge, and their past experiences with hurricane impacts in relation to their information seeking behavior regarding hurricane evacuation while in the destination. Surveys were collected from tourists who were visiting Florida in September 2011, during the Atlantic hurricane season. Findings from this study reveal and confirm the existence of the critical relationship among tourist information seeking, past experience with hurricanes, individual risk beliefs, and level of knowledge. It is recommended that destination managers make investments in hurricane communication messages, which target a wide array of tourists. The effectiveness of hurricane evacuation information is linked to the receptiveness of the content of the message by differing groups.
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Carlson, D. F., Yarbro, L. A., Scolaro, S., Poniatowski, M., McGee-Absten, V., & Carlson Jr., P. R. (2018). Sea surface temperatures and seagrass mortality in Florida Bay: Spatial and temporal patterns discerned from MODIS and AVHRR data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 208, 171–188.
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Castaneda-Moya, E., Castaneda-Moya E, Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Rivera-Monroy VH, Chambers, R. M., Chambers RM, et al. (2020). Hurricanes fertilize mangrove forests in the Gulf of Mexico (Florida Everglades, USA). Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 117(9), 4831–4841.
Abstract: Hurricanes are recurring high-energy disturbances in coastal regions that change community structure and function of mangrove wetlands. However, most of the studies assessing hurricane impacts on mangroves have focused on negative effects without considering the positive influence of hurricane-induced sediment deposition and associated nutrient fertilization on mangrove productivity and resilience. Here, we quantified how Hurricane Irma influenced soil nutrient pools, vertical accretion, and plant phosphorus (P) uptake after its passage across the Florida Coastal Everglades in September 2017. Vertical accretion from Irma's deposits was 6.7 to 14.4 times greater than the long-term (100 y) annual accretion rate (0.27 +/- 0.04 cm y(-1)). Storm deposits extended up to 10-km inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Total P (TP) inputs were highest at the mouth of estuaries, with P concentration double that of underlying surface (top 10 cm) soils (0.19 +/- 0.02 mg cm(-3)). This P deposition contributed 49 to 98% to the soil nutrient pool. As a result, all mangrove species showed a significant increase in litter foliar TP and soil porewater inorganic P concentrations in early 2018, 3 mo after Irma's impact, thus underscoring the interspecies differences in nutrient uptake. Mean TP loading rates were five times greater in southwestern (94 +/- 13 kg ha(-1) d(-1)) mangrove-dominated estuaries compared to the southeastern region, highlighting the positive role of hurricanes as a natural fertilization mechanism influencing forest productivity. P-rich, mineral sediments deposited by hurricanes create legacies that facilitate rapid forest recovery, stimulation of peat soil development, and resilience to sea-level rise.
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Coldren, G. A., & Proffitt, C. E. (2017). Mangrove seedling freeze tolerance depends on salt marsh presence, species, salinity, and age. Hydrobiologia, 803(1), 159–171.
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Czajkowski, J., Engel, V., Martinez, C., Mirchi, A., Watkins, D., Sukop, M. C., et al. (2018). Economic impacts of urban flooding in South Florida: Potential consequences of managing groundwater to prevent salt water intrusion. Science of The Total Environment, 621, 465–478.
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Danielson, T. M., Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Castañeda-Moya, E., Briceño, H., Travieso, R., Marx, B. D., et al. (2017). Assessment of Everglades mangrove forest resilience: Implications for above-ground net primary productivity and carbon dynamics. Forest Ecology and Management, 404, 115–125.
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Divate, N., Solis, D., Thomas, M. H., Alvarez, S., & Harding, D. (2017). An Economic Analysis of the Impact of Cogongrass among Nonindustrial Private Forest Landowners in Florida. Forest Science, 63(2), 201–208.
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