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Deep Sea Res
Infanti, J. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2016). North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO.
Research has shown that there is significant diversity in the location of the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In one extreme, warm SSTA peak near the South American coast (often referred to as Eastern Pacific of EP El Nio), and at the other extreme, warm SSTA peak in the central Pacific (Central Pacific or CP El Nio). Due to the differing tropical Pacific SSTA and precipitation structure, there are differing extratropical responses, particularly over North America. Recent work involving the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system for intra-seasonal to inter-annual prediction on prediction of the differences between El Nio events found excess warming in the eastern Pacific during CP El Nio events. This manuscript investigates the ensemble and observational agreement of the NMME system when forecasting the North American response to the diversity of ENSO, focusing on regional land-based 2-meter temperature and precipitation. NMME forecasts of North American precipitation and T2m agree with observations more often during EP events. Ensemble agreement of NMME forecasts is regional. For instance, ensemble agreement in Southeast North America demonstrates a strong connection to NINO3 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Ensemble agreement in Northwest North America demonstrates a weak connection to NINO4 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Still other regions do not show a strong connection between ensemble agreement and strength of warm ENSO events.
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Lee, S. - K., Wittenberg, A. T., Enfield, D. B., Weaver, S. J., Wang, C., & Atlas, R. (2016). US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability.
Environ. Res. Lett.
Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the US, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused devastating societal impact with significant loss of life and property. At present, our capacity to predict US tornado and other severe weather risk does not extend beyond seven days. In an effort to advance our capability for developing a skillful long-range outlook for US tornado outbreaks, here we investigate the spring probability patterns of US regional tornado outbreaks during 1950-2014. Weshow that the four dominant springtime El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (persistent versus early-terminating El Nino and resurgent versus transitioning La Nina) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole variability are linked to distinct and significant US regional patterns of outbreak probability. These changes in the probability of outbreaks are shown to be largely consistent with remotely forced regional changes in the large-scale atmospheric processes conducive to tornado outbreaks. An implication of these findings is that the springtime ENSO phases and the North Atlantic SST tripole variability may provide seasonal predictability of US regional tornado outbreaks.
US tornado outbreaks
springtime ENSO phases
North Atlantic SST tripole
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