Abbas, G., Ahmad, S., Ahmad, A., Nasim, W., Fatima, Z., Hussain, S., et al. (2017). Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, 42–55.
|
Acevedo, M. A., Beaudrot, L., MeléndezAckerman, E. J., Tremblay, R. L., & Shefferson, R. (2020). Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte. J Ecol, 108(4), 1553–1564.
Abstract: The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year dataset on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios.
We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability) and/or rainfall.
The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches.
Synthesis. Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
|
Ahmad, S., Abbas, G., Fatima, Z., Khan, R. J., Anjum, M. A., Ahmed, M., et al. (2017). Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan. J Agro Crop Sci, 203(5), 442–452.
|
Alba, C., Fahey, C., & Flory, S. L. (2019). Global change stressors alter resources and shift plant interactions from facilitation to competition over time. Ecology, 100(12), e02859.
Abstract: Global change stressors such as drought and plant invasion can affect ecosystem structure and function via mediation of resource availability and plant competition outcomes. Yet, it remains uncertain how native plants respond to drought stress that co-occurs with potentially novel resource conditions created by a nonnative invader. Further, there is likely to be temporal variation in competition outcomes between native and nonnative plant species depending on which resources are most limiting at a given time. Interacting stressors coupled with temporal variation make it difficult to predict how global change will impact native plant communities. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a 5-yr factorial field experiment to quantify how simulated drought, plant invasion (by cogongrass, Imperata cylindrica), and these stressors combined, affected resource availability (soil moisture and light) and competition dynamics between the invader and native longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), a foundation species in southeast U.S. forests. Drought and invasion mediated the survival and performance of pine seedlings in temporally dynamic and unexpected ways. Drought and invasion alone each significantly reduced pine seedling survival. However, when the stressors occurred together, the invader offset drought stress for pine seedlings by maintaining high levels of soil moisture, humidity, and shade compared to uninvaded vegetation. This facilitative effect was pronounced for 2 yr, yet shifted to strong competitive exclusion as the invasion progressed and the limiting resource switched from soil moisture to light. After 3 yr, pine tree survival was low except for pines growing with uninvaded vegetation under ambient precipitation conditions. After 5 yr, pines experiencing a single stressor were taller and had greater height to diameter ratios than pines under no stress or both stressors. This outcome revealed a filtering effect where poorly performing trees were culled under stressful conditions, especially when pines were growing with the invader. Together, these results demonstrate that although drought and invasion suppressed a foundation tree species, the invader temporarily moderated stressful drought conditions, and at least some trees were able to survive despite increasingly strong competition. Such unpredictable effects of interacting global change stressors on native plant species highlight the need for additional long-term studies.
|
Alba, C., NeSmith, J. E., Fahey, C., Angelini, C., & Flory, S. L. (2017). Methods to test the interactive effects of drought and plant invasion on ecosystem structure and function using complementary common garden and field experiments. Ecol Evol, 7(5), 1442–1452.
|
Alirezaei, M., Onat, N., Tatari, O., & Abdel-Aty, M. (2017). The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies. Systems, 5(1), 6.
|
Almeida Prado Jr., F., Athayde, S., Mossa, J., Bohlman, S., Leite, F., & Oliver-Smith, A. (2016). How much is enough? An integrated examination of energy security, economic growth and climate change related to hydropower expansion in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 53, 1132–1136.
Abstract: Reconciling economic growth and energy supply with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and other goals for environmental protection is a major challenge for emerging economies such as Brazil. Establishing energy security standards consistent with realistic economic growth projections while considering climate change requires complex calculations and relies upon risky assumptions. Yet, such calculations and decisions must be made to avoid future energy shortages and economic crises. This paper discusses the current dilemma concerning planning and decision-making for the Brazilian electric sector considering the construction of hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon region, energy security requirements, projected economic growth and climate change feedbacks.
|
Alza, C. M., Donnelly, M. A., & Whitfield, S. M. (2016). Additive effects of mean temperature, temperature variability, and chlorothalonil to red-eyed treefrog (Agalychnis callidryas) larvae: Temperature variability and chlorothalonil toxicity. Environ Toxicol Chem, 35(12), 2998–3004.
|
Amanambu, A. C., Obarein, O. A., Mossa, J., Li, L., Ayeni, S. S., Balogun, O., et al. (2020). Groundwater system and climate change: Present status and future considerations. Journal of Hydrology, 589.
Abstract: Climate change will impact every aspect of biophysical systems and society. However, unlike other components of the climate system, the impact of climate change on the groundwater system has only recently received attention. This focus is due to the realization that groundwater is a vital freshwater resource crucial to global food and water security, and is essential in sustaining ecosystems and human adaptation to climate variability and change. This paper synthesizes findings on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the entire groundwater system and each component. Also, we appraise the use of coupled groundwater-climate and land surface models in groundwater hydrology as a means of improving existing knowledge of climate change-groundwater interaction, finding that most models anticipate decreases in groundwater recharge, storage and levels, particularly in the arid/semi-arid tropics. Reducing uncertainties in future climate projections and improving our understanding of the physical processes underlying models to improve their simulation of real-world conditions remain a priority for climate and Earth scientists. Despite the enormous progress made, there are still few and inadequate local and regional aquifer studies, especially in less developed regions. The paper proposes two key considerations. First, physical basis: the need for a deeper grasp of complex physical processes and feedback mechanism with the use of more sophisticated models. Second, the need to understand the socioeconomic dimensions of climate-groundwater interaction through multidisciplinary synergy, leading to the development of better groundwater-climate change adaptation strategies and modeling
|
Anandhi, A. (2016). Growing degree days - Ecosystem indicator for changing diurnal temperatures and their impact on corn growth stages in Kansas. Ecological Indicators, 61, 149–158.
Abstract: Understanding how climate change will affect plant phenology (shifts in the timing of plant activity) is central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies. This aspect of plant ecology often has been overlooked, but addressing the consequences of climate change for adaptive/mitigative management is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. This study is innovative because it uses growing degree days (GDD), which has existed since the 1730s, as an ecosystem indicator to study changing diurnal temperatures; their effects on different plant growth stages in the last century; and as a basis for development of future adaptive management strategies. Our results show the most recent time period (1980-2009) had the earliest emergence and the least variability among stations in the day at which the crop stage occurred for most stages except emergence and physiological maturity. 100 year linear trends in the stations indicated all seven crop stages except tassel initiation occurred earlier by one day per decade during the study period. The number of stations with significant decreases varied from 11 to 17 stations out of 23 stations in Kansas. Tassel initiation stage occurred later by one day per decade during the study period. The most recent time period (1980-2009) had the highest variability among stations and 30 year time periods. The variability in trends is higher in western Kansas when compared to eastern Kansas. This knowledge has transformative potential to improve our understanding of the occurrence and duration of the different plant growth stages, add local precision to earlier findings for changes in overall GDD that encompassed larger areas, and help explain the differences in trends from some earlier studies. These shifts in the phenology of agricultural plants as a result of climate change have implications on food production increases required to feed the growing population.
|
Anandhi, A., & Bentley, C. (2018). Predicted 21st century climate variability in southeastern U.S. using downscaled CMIP5 and meta-analysis.170.
Abstract: Trends and variability of the climate in the southeastern United States, including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee was studied for an array of future scenarios in the 21st century. The region is a biodiversity hotspot affected by more billion-dollar disasters than any other region in the country. Assessing the impacts of climate change in southeastern United States is important and often requires knowledge of plausible future climate change (e.g. scenarios of temperature and precipitation change). Although several methods are available in literature to develop plausible scenarios of the changes, there exists a usability gap [gap between what scientists understand as useful information and what users recognize as usable]. A novel conceptual framework that represents the plausible future climate change scenarios in southeastern United States was developed using information from meta-analysis and outputs from similar to 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) [data analysis] in the form of scenario funnels (represent the plausible trajectories of changes in climate). The systematic literature review provided 33 values of precipitation changes from 15 studies and 35 for temperature changes from 14 studies. In general, the meta-analysis revealed, the precipitation changes observed ranged from -30 to + 35% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Fiftieth percentile of the GCMs predicts no precipitation change and an increase of 2.5 degrees C temperature in the region by 2099. Among the GCMs, 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between - 40% to 110% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Finally, the usability of scenario information to stakeholders in various southeastern United States ecosystems and guidelines for developing causal chains and feedback loops with three levels of complexity were provided. They include utilizing the information from impact assessment studies, stakeholder's expertise and requirement as well as understanding the potential impacts in ecosystems (e.g. agroecosystems, coastal, wetland) by relating the structural components of an ecosystem, their interactions with each other, within and across ecosystems for improved management and sustainable use of their resources. These would improve understanding of ecosystem functioning for better management and sustainable use of resources. Although the methodology was demonstrated for southeastern United States, it could also be applicable to other regions of the world. However, the scenario funnels, potential impacts on ecosystems and causal chain/loops are subjective to the study region, availability of literature, the changes observed in the literature and data analyzed, the characteristics of the study region, the stakeholder and their requirement.
|
Anandhi, A., & Blocksome, C. E. (2017). Developing adaptation strategies using an agroecosystem indicator: Variability in crop failure temperatures. Ecological Indicators, 76, 30–41.
|
Anandhi, A., Omani, N., Chaubey, I., Horton, R., Bader, D., & Nanjundiah, R. S. (2016). Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries. Transactions of the ASABE, 59(6), 1715–1731.
|
Anfinson, K. (2018). How to tell the truth about climate change. Environmental Politics, 27(2), 209–227.
|
Ardusso, L. R. F., Neffen, H. E., Fernandez-caldas, E., Saranz, R. J., Parisi, C. A. S., Tolcachier, A., et al. (2019). Environmental intervention in respiratory disease. MEDICINA-BUENOS AIRES, 79(2), 123–136.
Abstract: In recent years there has been a significant increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases despite advances in the understanding of the pathogenesis, the dissemination of guidelines for its management and the emergence of new drugs. The reasons for this increase are not fully established, but it is suggested that multiple environmental factors may be involved. Inhaled air contains numerous harmful agents in addition to environmental allergens. The main immediate respiratory clinical expression after inhaling this contaminated air is asthma and rhinitis. The activity of human beings has altered the outdoor environment by the emission of multiple pollutants and has produced an increasing climate change. It also has a notable impact on the development of respiratory pathology and the modification of air quality. The bibliography on the subject of environmental control is very broad and sometimes difficult to interpret. In order to be able to make precise, valid and simple indications for patients to accomplish with, four scientific societies of the Argentine Republic that deal with this type of diseases, have elaborated a document that contains information of easy access to all medical personal involved in the treatment of patients with asthma and / or rhinitis, that provides practical measures for the patients and the different public health systems about unmet needs in this complex issue.
|
Arnold, T. E., Diefendorf, A. F., Brenner, M., Freeman, K. H., & Baczynski, A. A. (2018). Climate response of the Florida Peninsula to Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Quaternary Science Reviews, 194, 1–11.
Abstract: Hydrogen and carbon isotope values (delta D & delta C-13) were measured on lipid biomarkers from a sediment core collected in Lake Tulane, Florida, USA, to infer shifts in climate and hydrologic variables during the Last Glacial. Isotopic trends from 24 samples correlate with plant community shifts evaluated in a previous pollen study by Grimm et al. (2006). We observe maxima in Delta(leaf) values and minima in delta D values concurrent with peaks in Pinus pollen abundances and Heinrich Events 4-2. Increased Delta(leaf) values during North Atlantic cold spells indicate lower water-use-efficiency among angiosperms around Lake Tulane. Combined delta D values from terrestrial and aquatic lipids, confirm that aridity decreased during cold, stadia) periods (Heinrich Events), and increased during warm, interstadials. Furthermore, lower delta D values in aquatic lipids during stadials are attributed to warming, as well as changing moisture sources. The anti-phase relationship between temperatures and aridity derived from our subtropical lacustrine record and those at high latitude in the North Atlantic is likely the result of complex ocean-atmosphere teleconnections that resulted from the collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Events in the North Atlantic. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
Arnold, T. E., Diefendorf, A. F., Brenner, M., Freeman, K. H., & Baczynski, A. A. (2018). Climate response of the Florida Peninsula to Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Quaternary Science Reviews, 194, 1–11.
Abstract: Hydrogen and carbon isotope values (δD & δ13C) were measured on lipid biomarkers from a sediment core collected in Lake Tulane, Florida, USA, to infer shifts in climate and hydrologic variables during the Last Glacial. Isotopic trends from 24 samples correlate with plant community shifts evaluated in a previous pollen study by Grimm et al. (2006). We observe maxima in Δleaf values and minima in δD values concurrent with peaks in Pinus pollen abundances and Heinrich Events 4-2. Increased Δleaf values during North Atlantic cold spells indicate lower water-use-efficiency among angiosperms around Lake Tulane. Combined δD values from terrestrial and aquatic lipids, confirm that aridity decreased during cold, stadial periods (Heinrich Events), and increased during warm, interstadials. Furthermore, lower δD values in aquatic lipids during stadials are attributed to warming, as well as changing moisture sources. The anti-phase relationship between temperatures and aridity derived from our subtropical lacustrine record and those at high latitude in the North Atlantic is likely the result of complex ocean-atmosphere teleconnections that resulted from the collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Events in the North Atlantic.
|
Aronson, R. B., & Precht, W. F. (2016). Physical and Biological Drivers of Coral-Reef Dynamics. In Coral Reefs at the Crossroads (Vol. 6, pp. 261–275). Springer.
|
Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rotter, R. P., O'Leary, G. J., Fitzgerald, G. J., et al. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 155–173.
Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
|
Atzori, R., & Fyall, A. (2018). Climate change denial: vulnerability and costs for Florida's coastal destinations. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 1(2), 137–149.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the vulnerability of Florida’s coastal destinations to climate change and the costs of the adaptation measures required to cope with the impacts of climate change in a range of current and future scenarios.
|