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Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin III, F. S., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., et al. (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environ. Res. Lett., 11(3), 034014.
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Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Keywords: permafrost carbon; Arctic; boreal; wildfire; dissolved organic carbon; particulate organic carbon; coastal erosion
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Ankersen, T., Pownall, B., & Menashe, A. (2020). Adaptation Action Areas in Florida: The State of Play. The Reporter: The Environmental and Land Use Law Section, XL(3), 1, 17–21.
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Abstract: This article briefly describes the origins of the 2011 Adaptation Action Areas (AAA legislation.5We identify every local government that has amended its comprehensive plan to include AAA language and characterize it as either aspirational or operational - depending on whether spatially explicit boundaries have been drawn. We also seek to determine the dominant 'theme' behind the AAA language, based on its focus on the built environment, natural resources and social equity, and whether the AAA is a regulatory instrument, or is focused on implementing projects. We conclude that despite nearly 10 years of existence, the promise of AAA's as a policy planning tool has yet to be fully realized. We further conclude that given its implicit goal of priority setting, there is insufficient attention paid to social equity as a basis for creating and implementing AAA's. We caution that this analysis is based on readily available public information, and AAA planning is occurring that has yet to reach fruition. In addition, because the statute is likely not preemptive,7spatially explicit sub-jurisdictional adaptation planning may be occurring outside of the AAA framework.
Keywords: Adaptation Action Areas; Coastal Planning Act; Florida
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Atzori, R., & Fyall, A. (2018). Climate change denial: vulnerability and costs for Florida's coastal destinations. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, 1(2), 137–149.
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Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the vulnerability of Florida’s coastal destinations to climate change and the costs of the adaptation measures required to cope with the impacts of climate change in a range of current and future scenarios.
Keywords: Tourism; Climate change; Denial; Florida; Coastal destination; Sea level rise
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Atzori, R., Fyall, A., Tasci, A. D. A., & Fjelstul, J. (2019). The Role of Social Representations in Shaping Tourist Responses to Potential Climate Change Impacts: An Analysis of Floridas Coastal Destinations. Journal of Travel Research, 58(8), 1373–1388.
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Abstract: Beside the physical impacts of climate change, society's perceptions of climate change and its reactions at different stages of decision-making levels have become critical issues. This study presents the perspective of tourists who have previously visited Florida, in a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. It is proposed that existing social representations about climate change, and therefore individuals' attitudes, views, and beliefs about this phenomenon, need to be taken into account when examining tourists' stated responses to climate change and subsequent potential shifts in tourism demand. The existence of a relationship between tourists' visitation intentions toward a destination impacted by climate change and the social representations they hold with respect to climate change itself offers an alternative way to look at tourists' stated responses. This study concludes that predicting shifts in tourism demand based on tourist visitation intentions requires caution when dealing with climate change.
Keywords: climate change; social representations theory; coastal destinations; Florida; tourist responses
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Bianchi, T. S., Allison, M. A., Zhao, J., Li, X., Comeaux, R. S., Feagin, R. A., et al. (2013). Historical reconstruction of mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico: Linking climate change with carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 119, 7–16.
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Abstract: There has been considerable interest in a recently recognized and important sink in the global carbon pool, commonly referred to as “blue carbon”. The major goal of this study was to determine the historical reconstruction of mangrove expansion (Avicennia germinans) into salt marshes (Spartina alterniflora) and its effects on carbon sequestration and soil chemistry in wetland soils of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. We used bulk stable isotopic, chemical biomarker analyses, and aerial imagery analysis to identify changes in OC wetland sources, and radiotracers (137Cs and 210Pb) for chronology. Soil cores were collected at two sites at Port Aransas, Texas (USA), Harbor Island and Mud Island. Stable isotopic values of &#948;13C and &#948;15N of all soil samples ranged from &#8722;26.8 to &#8722;15.6‰ and 1.8–10.4‰ and showed a significant trend of increasing depletion for each isotope from bottom to surface soils. The most depleted &#948;13C values were in surface soils at the Mud Island (Mangrove 2) location. Carbon sequestration rates were greater in mangroves and for the Mud Island Mangrove 1 and the Marsh 1 sites ranged from 253 to 270 and 101–125 g C m&#8722;2 yr&#8722;1, respectively. Lignin storage rates were also greater for mangrove sites and for the Mud Island Mangrove 1 and the Marsh 1 ranged from 19.5 to 20.1 and 16.5 to 12.8 g lignin m&#8722;2 yr&#8722;1, respectively. &#932;he &#923;8 and &#923;6 values for all cores ranged from 0.5 to 21.5 and 0.4 to 16.5, respectively, and showed a significant increase from bottom to surface sediments. If regional changes in the Gulf of Mexico are to persist and much of the marsh vegetation was to be replaced by mangroves, there could be significant increases on the overall storage and sequestration of carbon in the coastal zone.
Keywords: coastal wetlands; climate change; carbon sequestration; biomarkers; Gulf of Mexico
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Breithaupt, J. L., Smoak, J. M., Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Castañeda-Moya, E., Moyer, R. P., Simard, M., et al. (2017). Partitioning the relative contributions of organic matter and mineral sediment to accretion rates in carbonate platform mangrove soils. Marine Geology, 390, 170–180.
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Keywords: Mangroves Coastal wetlands Accretion Sedimentation Soils Pb-210
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Butler, W. H., Deyle, R. E., & Mutnansky, C. (2016). Low-Regrets Incrementalism: Land Use Planning Adaptation to Accelerating Sea Level Rise in Floridas Coastal Communities. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 36(3), 319–332.
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Abstract: Sea level rise is one of the climate change effects most amenable to adaptation planning as the impacts are familiar and the nature of the phenomenon is unambiguous. Yet, significant uncertainties remain. Using a normative framework of adaptive management and natural hazards planning, we examine how coastal communities in Florida are planning in the face of accelerating sea level rise through analysis of planning documents and interviews with planners. We clarify that communities are taking a low-regrets incremental approach with increasingly progressive measures motivated by confidence in planning intelligence and direct experience with impacts attributable to sea level rise.
Keywords: natural hazards planning; climate change adaptation; coastal resilience; uncertainty; adaptive management
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Calafat, F. M., & Chambers, D. P. (2013). Inter-annual to decadal sea level variability in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas: the role of atmospheric forcing. J. Geophys. Res., in press.
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Abstract: Inter-annual to decadal sea level variations from tide gauge records in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas are examined for the period 1950-2010 using a combination of hydrographic observations, wind data, and theory. We identify two large areas of highly coherent sea level variability: one that includes the Norwegian, Barents, and Kara Seas, and another one that includes the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. We provide evidence of a new contribution to the sea level variability along the Norwegian coast associated with the poleward propagation of sea level fluctuations along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic. When this propagating signal is combined with the local wind we are able to explain over 70% of the variance along the Norwegian coast. The steric component explains ~61% of the sea level (corrected for the inverse barometer) variability along the Norwegian coast. The high coherency between the sea level along the Norwegian coast and that in the Barents and Kara Seas suggests that part of the Norwegian signal propagates further north into these regions. We introduce an atmospheric vorcity index that explains much of the sea level variability in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas with correlations ranging from 0.73 to 0.81. In the East Siberian Sea, we identify a sea level increase of ~22&#8201;cm between 2000 and 2003, which is partly explained by the vorticity index, and a decline of ~15&#8201;cm after 2003, which we relate to the strengthening of the Beaufort Gyre.
Keywords: Sea level; Tide gauge; Norwegian coast; Arctic; Atmospheric forcing; Beaufort Gyre
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Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Long, A. J., & Milne, G. A. (2019). PALeo constraints on SEA level rise (PALSEA): Ice-sheet and sea-level responses to past climate warming. Quaternary Science Reviews, 212, 28–32.
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Abstract: Here we summarize the motivation and issues surrounding the responses of ice sheets and sea level to past climate warming as part of the PALeo constraints on SEA level rise (PALSEA) working group. Papers in this special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews focus on the timescale of glaciations during the late Pliocene, the magnitude of ice-sheet fluctuations and volume leading up to and during the last glacial maximum, the timing and persistence of ice-sheet impacts on deglacial and future relative sea-level change, and relative sea-level change during peak interglacial climate. A more dynamic cryosphere is noted under both late Pliocene and last glacial cycle climate conditions, while relative sea-level changes during the last deglaciation appear to correspond closely with individual ice-sheet deglaciation. Lastly, relative sea-level change during peak interglacial conditions may have fluctuated by as much as a meter, although the sources of such variability (Greenland, Antarctica or elsewhere) remain elusive. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; LAURENTIDE; PLIOCENE; HISTORY; DEGLACIATION; VOLUMES; RETREAT; RECORD; RATES; COAST
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Carlton, J. S., & Jacobson, S. K. (2016). Using Expert and Non-expert Models of Climate Change to Enhance Communication. Environmental Communication, 10(1), 1–24.
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Abstract: Climate change is a significant global risk that is predicted to be particularly devastating to coastal communities. Climate change adaptation and mitigation have been hindered by many factors, including psychological barriers, ineffective outreach and communication, and knowledge gaps. This qualitative study compares an expert model of climate change risks to county administrators' mental models of climate change and related coastal environmental hazards in Crystal River, Florida, USA. There were 24 common nodes in the expert and the combined non-expert models, mainly related to hurricanes, property damage, and economic concerns. Seven nodes mentioned by non-experts fit within, but were not a part of, the expert model, primarily related to ecological concerns about water quality. The findings suggest that effective climate outreach and communication could focus on compatible parts of the models and incorporate local concerns to find less controversial ways to discuss climate-related hazards.
Keywords: climate change; mental models; climate communication; coastal environmental hazards; qualitative research
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Carlton, S. J., & Jacobson, S. K. (2013). Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida. Journal of Environmental Management, 130, 32–39.
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Abstract: Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks.
Keywords: Climate change; Coastal risks; New ecological paradigm; Risk communication; Risk perception; Social trust
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Castaneda-Moya, E., Castaneda-Moya E, Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Rivera-Monroy VH, Chambers, R. M., Chambers RM, et al. (2020). Hurricanes fertilize mangrove forests in the Gulf of Mexico (Florida Everglades, USA). Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 117(9), 4831–4841.
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Abstract: Hurricanes are recurring high-energy disturbances in coastal regions that change community structure and function of mangrove wetlands. However, most of the studies assessing hurricane impacts on mangroves have focused on negative effects without considering the positive influence of hurricane-induced sediment deposition and associated nutrient fertilization on mangrove productivity and resilience. Here, we quantified how Hurricane Irma influenced soil nutrient pools, vertical accretion, and plant phosphorus (P) uptake after its passage across the Florida Coastal Everglades in September 2017. Vertical accretion from Irma's deposits was 6.7 to 14.4 times greater than the long-term (100 y) annual accretion rate (0.27 +/- 0.04 cm y(-1)). Storm deposits extended up to 10-km inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Total P (TP) inputs were highest at the mouth of estuaries, with P concentration double that of underlying surface (top 10 cm) soils (0.19 +/- 0.02 mg cm(-3)). This P deposition contributed 49 to 98% to the soil nutrient pool. As a result, all mangrove species showed a significant increase in litter foliar TP and soil porewater inorganic P concentrations in early 2018, 3 mo after Irma's impact, thus underscoring the interspecies differences in nutrient uptake. Mean TP loading rates were five times greater in southwestern (94 +/- 13 kg ha(-1) d(-1)) mangrove-dominated estuaries compared to the southeastern region, highlighting the positive role of hurricanes as a natural fertilization mechanism influencing forest productivity. P-rich, mineral sediments deposited by hurricanes create legacies that facilitate rapid forest recovery, stimulation of peat soil development, and resilience to sea-level rise.
Keywords: Florida Coastal Everglades; Hurricane Irma; P fertilization; mangroves; sediment deposition
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Chambers, L. G., Guevara, R., Boyer, J. N., Troxler, T. G., & Davis, S. E. (2016). Effects of Salinity and Inundation on Microbial Community Structure and Function in a Mangrove Peat Soil. Wetlands, 36(2), 361–371.
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Abstract: Shifts in microbial community function and structure can be indicators of environmental stress and ecosystem change in wetland soils. This study evaluated the effects of increased salinity, increased inundation, and their combination, on soil microbial function (enzyme activity) and structure (phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) signatures and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphisms (T-RFLP) profiles) in a brackish mangrove peat soil using tidal mesocosms (Everglades, Florida, USA). Increased tidal inundation resulted in reduced soil enzyme activity, especially alkaline phosphatase, an increase in the abundance and diversity of prokaryotes, and a decline in number of eukaryotes. The community composition of less abundant bacteria (T-RFLPs comprising 0.3-1 % of total fluorescence) also shifted as a result of increased inundation under ambient salinity. Several key biogeochemical indicators (oxidation-reduction potential, CO2 flux, porewater NH4 (+), and dissolved organic carbon) correlated with measured microbial parameters and differed with inundation level. This study indicates microbial function and composition in brackish soil is more strongly impacted by increased inundation than increased salinity. The observed divergence of microbial indicators within a short time span (10-weeks) demonstrates their usefulness as an early warning signal for shifts in coastal wetland ecosystems due to sea level rise stressors.
Keywords: Coastal wetland; Peat; Sea level rise; Salinity; Mangrove
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Charles, S. P., Kominoski, J. S., Armitage, A. R., Guo, H., Weaver, C. A., & Pennings, S. C. (2020). Quantifying how changing mangrove cover affects ecosystem carbon storage in coastal wetlands. Ecology, 101(2), e02916.
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Abstract: Despite overall global declines, mangroves are expanding into and within many subtropical wetlands, leading to heterogeneous cover of marsh-mangrove coastal vegetation communities near the poleward edge of mangroves' ranges. Coastal wetlands are globally important carbon sinks, yet the effects of shifts in mangrove cover on organic-carbon (OC) storage remains uncertain. We experimentally maintained black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) or marsh vegetation in patches (n = 1,120, 3 x 3 m) along a gradient in mangrove cover (0-100%) within coastal wetland plots (n = 10, 24 x 42 m) and measured changes in OC stocks and fluxes. Within patches, above and belowground biomass (OC) was 1,630% and 61% greater for mangroves than for recolonized marshes, and soil OC was 30% greater beneath mangrove than marsh vegetation. At the plot scale, above and belowground biomass increased linearly with mangrove cover but soil OC was highly variable and unrelated to mangrove cover. Root ingrowth was not different in mangrove or marsh patches, nor did it change with mangrove cover. After 11 months, surface OC accretion was negatively related to plot-scale mangrove cover following a high-wrack deposition period. However, after 22 months, accretion was 54% higher in mangrove patches, and there was no relationship to plot-scale mangrove cover. Marsh (Batis maritima) leaf and root litter had 1,000% and 35% faster breakdown rates (k) than mangrove (A. germinans) leaf and root litter. Soil temperatures beneath mangroves were 1.4 degrees C lower, decreasing aboveground k of fast- (cellulose) and slow-decomposing (wood) standard substrates. Wood k in shallow soil (0-15 cm) was higher in mangrove than marsh patches, but vegetation identity did not impact k in deeper soil (15-30 cm). We found that mangrove cover enhanced OC storage by increasing biomass, creating more recalcitrant organic matter and reducing k on the soil surface by altering microclimate, despite increasing wood k belowground and decreasing allochthonous OC subsidies. Our results illustrate the importance of mangroves in maintaining coastal OC storage, but also indicate that the impacts of vegetation change on OC storage may vary based on ecosystem conditions, organic-matter sources, and the relative spatiotemporal scales of mangrove vegetation change.
Keywords: Gulf of Mexico; blue carbon; climate change; coastal wetlands; ecosystem function; mangrove expansion; regime shift; sea-level rise; vegetation change
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Charles, S. P., Kominoski, J. S., Troxler, T. G., Gaiser, E. E., Servais, S., Wilson, B. J., et al. (2019). Experimental Saltwater Intrusion Drives Rapid Soil Elevation and Carbon Loss in Freshwater and Brackish Everglades Marshes. Estuaries and Coasts, 42(7), 1868–1881.
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Abstract: Increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) threaten to submerge coastal wetlands unless they increase soil elevation at similar pace, often by storing soil organic carbon (OC). Coastal wetlands face increasing salinity, marine-derived nutrients, and inundation depths from increasing rates of SLR. To quantify the effects of SLR on soil OC stocks and fluxes and elevation change, we conducted two mesocosm experiments using the foundation species sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) and organic soils from freshwater and brackish Florida Everglades marshes for 1 year. In freshwater mesocosms, we compared ambient and elevated salinity (fresh, 9 ppt) and phosphorus (ambient, + 1 g P m(-2) year(-1)) treatments with a 2 x 2 factorial design. Salinity addition reduced root biomass (48%), driving 2.8 +/- 0.3 cm year(-1) of elevation loss, while soil elevation was maintained in freshwater conditions. Added P increased root productivity (134%) but also increased breakdown rates (k) of roots (31%) and leaves (42%) with no effect on root biomass or soil elevation. In brackish mesocosms, we compared ambient and elevated salinity (10, 19 ppt) and inundated and exposed conditions (water level 5-cm below and 4-cm above soil). Elevated salinity decreased root productivity (70%) and root biomass (37%) and increased k in litter (33%) and surface roots (11%), whereas inundation decreased subsurface root k (10%). All brackish marshes lost elevation at similar rates (0.6 +/- 0.2 cm year(-1)). In conclusion, saltwater intrusion in freshwater and brackish wetlands may reduce net OC storage and increase vulnerability to SLR despite inundation or marine P supplies.
Keywords: Saltwater intrusion; Carbon storage; Sea-level rise; Ecosystem vulnerability; Elevation change; Coastal wetlands; Phosphorus; Salinity; Inundation
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Coldren, G. A., & Proffitt, C. E. (2017). Mangrove seedling freeze tolerance depends on salt marsh presence, species, salinity, and age. Hydrobiologia, 803(1), 159–171.
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Keywords: Coastal wetlands; Climate change; Florida; Expansion; Life stage
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Conyers, Z. A., Grant, R., & Roy, S. S. (2019). Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure. The Professional Geographer, , 1–14.
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Abstract: Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.
Keywords: Sea level rise; Coastal communities; exposure; property values; vulnerability; readiness
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Crooks, S., Sutton-Grier, A. E., Troxler, T. G., Herold, N., Bernal, B., Schile-Beers, L., et al. (2018). Coastal wetland management as a contribution to the US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Nature Clim Change, 8(12), 1109–+.
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Abstract: The IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement provided new guidance for countries on inclusion of wetlands in their National GHG Inventories. The United States has responded by including managed coastal wetlands for the first time in its 2017 GHG Inventory report along with an updated time series in the most recent 2018 submission and plans to update the time series on an annual basis as part of its yearly submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The United States followed IPCC Good Practice Guidance when reporting sources and sinks associated with managed coastal wetlands. Here we show that intact vegetated coastal wetlands are a net sink for GHGs. Despite robust regulation that has protected substantial stocks of carbon, the United States continues to lose coastal wetlands to development and the largest loss of wetlands to open water occurs around the Mississippi Delta due mostly to upstream changes in hydrology and sediment delivery, and oil and gas extraction. These processes create GHG emissions. By applying comprehensive Inventory reporting, scientists in the United States have identified opportunities for reducing GHG emissions through restoration of coastal wetlands that also provide many important societal co-benefits.
Keywords: RESTORATION; PROTECTION, coastal wetland
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Danielson, T. M., Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Castañeda-Moya, E., Briceño, H., Travieso, R., Marx, B. D., et al. (2017). Assessment of Everglades mangrove forest resilience: Implications for above-ground net primary productivity and carbon dynamics. Forest Ecology and Management, 404, 115–125.
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Keywords: Mangrove productivity; Natural disturbance; Resilience; Neotropics; Florida Coastal Everglades
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Darwish, K., Smith, S. E., Torab, M., Monsef, H., & Hussein, O. (2017). Geomorphological Changes along the Nile Delta Coastline between 1945 and 2015 Detected Using Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS. Journal of Coastal Research, 33(4), 786–794.
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Keywords: Shoreline changes; coastal morphology; coastal erosion hazard; DSAS; Aswan High Dam
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