Abstract: Urban water systems across the United States are struggling to adapt to an evolving set of threats. Understanding specific pressures and the regional responses to those pressures requires input from practitioners with knowledge of sociotechnological aspects of urban water systems. The Urban Water Innovation Network (UWIN), a consortium of academic institutions and partners supported by the National Science Foundation Sustainability Research Network program, provides a unique opportunity to engage stakeholder and research communities across the U.S. Interactions between UWIN researchers and water stakeholders from five regions (Southeast Florida, Sun Corridor, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, and Front Range) form the basis for case studies on transitions toward sustainability. Analysis of qualitative data on pressures, states, and responses collected during interactions provides insight into the challenging context of urban water management. Top pressures identified include climate change, aging infrastructure, water quality impairments, and funding limitations. Additionally, stakeholders described resistance to change and short-term perspectives among elected officials, limited understanding/ awareness of water systems among decision makers, and lack of leadership on water issues as contributing to pressures. More than technological solutions, practitioners call for improved coordination in water management, strengthened communication with elected officials, and behavioral change among citizens. Regarding stakeholder-scientist interactions, participants sought practical outcomes, such as the organization of seemingly abundant scientific products into usable products. The utility of the pressure-state-response model as a framework for data collection and analysis in the context of understanding transitions toward urban water sustainability is discussed and recommendations for future studies are presented.

Abstract: Plantation records from the southeastern United States have long been an important source for historical, social, and cultural narratives. However, they also represent an underutilized source for meteorological, environmental, and agricultural data from the antebellum period. This study has two goals. Firstly, we advocate for a more systematic application of these records for quantitative analysis. Secondly, we present some early results from such a study using the records of Shirley Plantation in Virginia. We show how these records can be mined for data on weather and agricultural activity and how their broader usefulness is extended with the inclusion of appropriate meta-data. Observations of weather conditions and crop responses to seasonal changes lend themselves to quantitative analysis that can improve our understanding of the local weather and climate of that period. We present a case study comparing last spring freeze date in this region from the late 1820s to 2010s and suggest that last spring freeze now occurs approximately 23 days earlier compared to approximately 200 years ago. We also include summaries of the response of specific crops and cultivars since this knowledge may help the farmers' of today adapt to changing weather conditions. While individual plantation records may have idiosyncratic limitations, plantation records, along with other types of detailed historical records, can still provide rich detail for specific locations or events. Plantation records are not limited to the southeastern US and include diverse geographic locations in less developed areas which were often the same areas were enslaved labor was exploited under the plantation system.

Abstract: Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017-2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 +/- 0.3mm yr(-1) and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr(-2) over 1993-present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (http://doi.org/10.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42%, 21%, 15% and 8% to the global mean sea level over the 1993-present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005-present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of individual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr(-1) (1 sigma). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level.

Abstract: This paper presents a new application of an advanced hierarchical sensitivity analysis of a new climate model of barrier island geomorphological evolution. The implemented sensitivity analysis in this study integrates a hierarchical uncertainty framework with a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to decompose the different model input uncertainties. The analysis can provide quantitative and accurate measurements for the relative importance of uncertain model input factors while considering their dependence relationships. The climate model used in this research was the barrier island profile (BIP) model, which is a new computer code developed to simulate barrier island morphological evolution over periods ranging from years to decades under the impacts of accelerated future sea-level rise and long-term changes in the storm climate. In the application of the model, the BIP model was used to evaluate the responses of a series of barrier island cross-sections derived for Santa Rosa Island, Florida, to random storm events and five potential accelerated rates of sea-level rise projected over the next century. The uncertain model input factors thus include the scenario uncertainty caused by alternative future sea-level rise scenarios and the parametric uncertainties of random storm parameters and dune characteristics. The study results reveal that the occurrence of storms is the most important factor for the evolution of sand dunes on the barrier island and the impact of sea-level rise is essential to the morphological change of the island backshore environment. The analysis can provide helpful insights for coastal management and planning. This hierarchical sensitivity analysis is mathematically general and rigorous and can be applied to a wide range of climate models.

Abstract: Many coastal communities around the world are increasingly faced with pressure from sea level rise (SLR). Adapting to the impacts of SLR is now considered inevitable. Many coastal communities in the USA have started to invest in vulnerability assessments that seek to identify the degree of future risk induced by SLR and key vulnerable sectors as well as to provide a sound factual basis for designing and implementing adaptations. However, no study has systematically analyzed the content of these emerging assessments and their quality. This study aims to address this gap by evaluating 64 SLR vulnerability assessments in the USA using an established multi-criteria evaluation framework and by identifying governance factors that affect assessment quality. This study is the first baseline study to understand how the vulnerability of SLR has been assessed by US governments and, more importantly, shed light on pathways for their future improvement. Our analysis finds that the content and quality of the existing assessments vary widely. One-sided assessments that only consider physical exposure are common, and most assessments do not include plans for adaptations. The wealth of the area, amount of funding, mainstreaming efforts, and public awareness are all positively correlated with the assessment quality. We also find that assessments primarily authored by planning staff are lower in quality than those conducted through collaboration. Our findings offer comparative, empirical knowledge for urban planners and coastal managers to improve future vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for SLR.

Abstract: Flood exposure is increasing in coastal communities due to rising sea levels. Understanding the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on frequency and consequences of coastal flooding and subsequent social and economic impacts is of utmost importance for policymakers to implement effective adaptation strategies. Effective strategies may consider impacts from cumulative losses from minor flooding as well as acute losses from major events. In the present study, a statistically coherent Mixture Normal-Generalized Pareto Distribution model was developed, which reconciles the probabilistic characteristics of the upper tail as well as the bulk of the sea level data. The nonstationary sea level condition was incorporated in the mixture model using Quantile Regression method to characterize variable Generalized Pareto Distribution thresholds as a function of SLR. The performance validity of the mixture model was corroborated for 68 tidal stations along the Contiguous United States (CONUS) coast with long-term observed data. The method was subsequently employed to assess existing and future coastal minor and major flood frequencies. The results indicate that the frequency of minor and major flooding will increase along all CONUS coastal regions in response to SLR. By the end of the century, under the "Intermediate" SLR scenario, major flooding is anticipated to occur with return period less than a year throughout the coastal CONUS. However, these changes vary geographically and temporally. The mixture model was reconciled with the property exposure curve to characterize how SLR might influence Average Annual Exposure to coastal flooding in 20 major CONUS coastal cities.

Abstract: Increased loadings of nitrogen (N) from fertilizers, top soil, sewage, and atmospheric deposition are important drivers of eutrophication in coastal waters globally. Monitoring seawater and macroalgae can reveal long-term changes in N and phosphorus (P) availability and N:P stoichiometry that are critical to understanding the global crisis of coral reef decline. Analysis of a unique 3-decade data set for Looe Key reef, located offshore the lower Florida Keys, showed increased dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), chlorophyll a, DIN:soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) ratios, as well as higher tissue C:P and N:P ratios in macroalgae during the early 1990s. These data, combined with remote sensing and nutrient monitoring between the Everglades and Looe Key, indicated that the significant DIN enrichment between 1991 and 1995 at Looe Key coincided with increased Everglades runoff, which drains agricultural and urban areas extending north to Orlando, Florida. This resulted in increased P limitation of reef primary producers that can cause metabolic stress in stony corals. Outbreaks of stony coral disease, bleaching, and mortality between 1995 and 2000 followed DIN enrichment, algal blooms, and increased DIN:SRP ratios, suggesting that eutrophication interacted with other factors causing coral reef decline at Looe Key. Although water temperatures at Looe Key exceeded the 30.5 degrees C bleaching threshold repeatedly over the 3-decade study, the three mass bleaching events occurred only when DIN:SRP ratios increased following heavy rainfall and increased Everglades runoff. These results suggest that Everglades discharges, in conjunction with local nutrient sources, contributed to DIN enrichment, eutrophication, and increased N:P ratios at Looe Key, exacerbating P limitation, coral stress and decline. Improved management of water quality at the local and regional levels could moderate N inputs and maintain more balanced N:P stoichiometry, thereby reducing the risk of coral bleaching, disease, and mortality under the current level of temperature stress.

Abstract: The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority. Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

Abstract: Globally, rising temperatures have resulted in numerous examples of poleward shifts in species distribution patterns with accompanying changes in community structure and ecosystem processes. In the Gulf of Mexico, higher mean temperatures and less frequent winter freezes have led to the expansion of tropics-associated marine organisms. Our objectives were to quantify changing environmental conditions and the poleward expansion of the common snook Centropomus undecimalis into the Cedar Keys area of Florida, USA (29 deg N). The snook is an economically and recreationally important sport fish found from southern Brazil to south Florida. Cedar Key and the Lower Suwannee River are north of the snook's historically documented range, likely due to lethal water temperatures during winter. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we report an increase in catches of snook in this area since 2007. The spatial and temporal expansion of the species began with adult fish in 2007. By 2018, snook of all sizes were found in the region, and we found strong evidence of local reproduction during 2016-2018. The locations of nursery habitat and winter thermal refuges (e.g., freshwater springs) need to be identified and have implications for land-use policy and minimum-flow regulations for rivers. The arrival of the snook in the northern Gulf of Mexico could affect food web ecology and habitat interactions among estuarine predators, and future studies should evaluate snook's food habits and competitive interactions with resident fishes in this expanded range. Our study provides an example of how species range expansions due to changing temperatures should result in new research priorities to evaluate impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Abstract: Extreme weather and climate events and their impacts can occur in complex combinations, an interaction shaped by physical drivers and societal forces. In these situations, governance, markets and other decision-making structures-together with population exposure and vulnerability-create nonphysical interconnections among events by linking their impacts, to positive or negative effect. Various anthropogenic actions can also directly affect the severity of events, further complicating these feedback loops. Such relationships are rarely characterized or considered in physical-sciences-based research contexts. Here, we present a multidisciplinary argument for the concept of connected extreme events, and we suggest vantage points and approaches for producing climate information useful in guiding decisions about them. The impacts of extreme weather and climate can be amplified by physical interactions among events and across a complex set of societal factors. This Perspective discusses the concept and challenge of connected extreme events, exploring research approaches and decision-making strategies.