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Publications

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Alvarez, S., & Solis, D. (2019). Rapid Response Lowers Eradication Costs of Invasive Species: Evidence from Florida. Choices, 33(4).
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Abstract: Of the approximately 50,000 nonnative species that have been introduced into the United States, nearly 4,600 of them are classified as harmful invasive species (Pimentel et al., 2000; Corn et al., 2002). These organisms have caused major economic and environmental damages to the tune of $120 billion per year (Pimentel, Zuniga, and Robinson, 2005). Invasive species have also been found to negatively impact human well-being (Jones, 2017) and to induce trophic cascades (Walsh, Carpenter, and Vander Zanden, 2016). The annual toll inflicted by invasive species to U.S. agriculture is significant: Pest insects cause an estimated $13 billion in crop losses on top of the $1.2 billion farmers spend in insecticides, while weeds cause an estimated reduction of 12% in crop yields ($33 billion in production losses) despite $3 billion spent on herbicides each year (Pimentel et al., 2000). Similarly, invasive forest pests cause nearly $5 billion in damages and losses throughout the United States, including $2.25 billion in costs to governments, $2.55 billion in costs to homeowners, and $152 million in losses to timber producers (Aukema et al., 2011). In the past 40 years, biological invaders and the risk associated with them have increased mainly due to rapid human population growth and mobility coupled with radical alteration of ecosystems across the globe. In addition, more goods and materials are being traded between nations than ever before, creating opportunities for unintentional introductions (Perrings et al., 2002; Evans, 2003; Alvarez, 2016). Recent analyses on invasion threats indicate that the level of damages to agriculture worldwide is likely to increase, with major food-producing nations such as the United States, Canada, China, Argentina, Australia, and South Africa among the most threatened nations (Paini et al., 2016). While government agencies have developed guidance documents with specific recommendations for early detection and rapid response (National Invasive Species Council, 2016; U.S. Department of the Interior, 2016) and some international agreements mention invasive species (Lodge et al., 2016), there are no clear science-based national policies to deal with invasive species in the United States (Mhina et al., 2016). Instead, response efforts have been established on a case-by-case basis, and policy makers and stakeholders play a big role in deciding which invasions are targeted for control or eradication and when those efforts are to take place. Here we offer evidence that the economic costs associated with invasive species is in large part determined by the response time between arrival of a pest and the beginning of eradication or control efforts. To make our case, we first discuss the three phases of a biological invasion and the main strategies—in terms of response time—that policy makers have followed to deal with the threat. We also present a review of representative biological invasions that have affected Florida’s agriculture industry, categorized by the invasion phase in which eradication efforts were implemented. Finally, we discuss policy implications and recommendations.
Keywords: Agriculture; Economic Damages; Strategies
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Anandhi, A., Omani, N., Chaubey, I., Horton, R., Bader, D., & Nanjundiah, R. S. (2016). Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries. Transactions of the ASABE, 59(6), 1715–1731.
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Keywords: Adaptation, Agriculture, Agro-ecosystems, Climate change, Mitigation, Urban ecosystems, Water supply
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Antle, J. M., Basso, B., Conant, R. T., Godfray, H. C. J., Jones, J. W., Herrero, M., et al. (2017). Towards a new generation of agricultural system data, models and knowledge products: Design and improvement. Agricultural Systems, 155, 255–268.
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Keywords: Agriculture; Systems; Models; Data; Knowledge products; Next generation
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Bush, M. B., Mosblech, N. A. S., & Church, W. (2015). Climate change and the agricultural history of a mid-elevation Andean montane forest. The Holocene, 25(9), 1522–1532.
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Abstract: The steep, wet, forested, slopes of the mid-elevation Andes have often been dismissed as inimical to human occupation. A lack of ancient lakes in these habitats has limited the availability of paleoecologists to contribute to this discussion. Here, we present fossil pollen and charcoal data from Lake Pomacochas in northern Peru, which is a 70-m-deep lake lying at 2100&#8201;m a.s.l. We present a c. 3500-year history of both significant climate change and site occupancy by humans. Maize pollen is present in sediments throughout much of this record, though there are times when its cultivation is either abandoned, or moves back from the shoreline, for example, between c. 3500 and 2700 cal. yr BP and post 1200 cal. yr BP. By comparing our record with isotopic data derived from cave calcite we are able to show that dry times favored maize cultivation in this setting. In the last 1200&#8201;years, large-scale social changes in the Andes, such as the emergence of the Chachapoya culture and the invasion of Europeans, appear to be reflected in the fossil pollen and charcoal record.
Keywords: agriculture; Chachapoya; charcoal; fossil pollen; human impacts; late Holocene; montane forest; northern Peru; paleoecology
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Devkota, K. P., Hoogenboom, G., Boote, K. J., Singh, U., Lamers, J. P. A., Devkota, M., et al. (2015). Simulating the impact of water saving irrigation and conservation agriculture practices for rice-wheat systems in the irrigated semi-arid drylands of Central Asia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 214-215, 266–280.
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Abstract: Resource scarcity (labor, water, and energy) and high production costs are challenging the sustainability of conventional methods for rice and wheat establishment in Central Asia. Water saving irrigation and conservation agriculture (CA) practices (e.g., dry seeded rice, zero tillage wheat, residue retention) are potential alternative, resource-saving establishment methods. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model (CSM) can both be a valuable ex-ante and ex-post tool to evaluate the effects of water saving irrigation and resource saving CA-practices. The CSM-CERES-Rice and CSM-CERES-Wheat models of DSSAT were evaluated using experimental data from the 2008 to 2010 rice and wheat seasons as monitored in Urgench, the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan for growth, development of these crops, as well as soil mineral nitrogen (N) and volumetric soil moisture content in these cropping systems. Thereafter, the models were used to explore the long-term impact of water saving irrigation and CA-practices on grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics, N dynamics, and water balance in a rice-wheat rotation for 39 years starting from 1971. The simulation results showed that the simulated yield of water-seeded rice without residue retention and flood irrigation (WSRF-R0-FI) is likely to remain the highest and constant over 39 years. The simulated yield of dry seeded rice (DSR) with alternate wet and dry (AWD) irrigation and varying levels of residue retention was penalized for the initial years. However, the simulated rice yield increased after 13 years of CA-practices and continued to increase for the remaining years. Wheat did not experience a yield penalty for any of the treatments and simulated yield increased over time across all CA-practices based treatments. In the long-term, the effect of tillage methods and different residue levels for both rice and wheat were apparent in terms of grain yield and SOC build up. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that WSR using AWD irrigation with puddling (WSRF-R0-AWD-Puddled) could give equivalent yield with that of WSRF-R0-FI and that irrigation water for rice could be reduced from 5435 mm to 2161 mm (or by 60%). Deep placement of urea in DSR (CT-DSR-AWD-DPUS) has the potential to increase yields of DSR by about 0.5 t ha(-1). Despite the huge water saving potential through the adoption of water saving AWD irrigation in DSR, a major challenge will be to prevent N losses. Substantial amounts of N losses through leaching, immobilization by residue mulch, combined with gaseous losses through volatilization and denitrification are the major causes for the lower simulated yield of rice for the AWD treatments. During the rice season, the implementation of water saving irrigation can improve water use efficiency by reducing percolation and seepage losses, which is an option in particular for WSRF-R0-FI. For both crops, the water use efficiency can be improved by lowering evaporation losses e.g. through residue retention on the soil surface. The creation of a sub-surface hard pan (puddling) and deep placement of urea super granules/pellet (DPUS) fertilizer could be the key for water saving and better yields of rice. Because CA-practices require almost three times less irrigation water than conventional method, and provide a long-term positive impact on grain yields of both crops, the CA-practices should be considered for double, no-till, rice wheat cropping systems in the irrigated semi-arid drylands of Central Asia.
Keywords: DSSAT; CERES-Rice; CERES-Wheat; Alternate wet and dry (AWD) irrigation; Conservation agriculture (CA)
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Di Leo, N., Escobedo, F. J., & Dubbeling, M. (2016). The role of urban green infrastructure in mitigating land surface temperature in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Environ Dev Sustain, 18(2), 373–392.
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Abstract: Green infrastructure in developed countries has been used as a climate change adaptation strategy to lower increased temperatures in cities. But, the use of green infrastructure to provide ecosystem services and increase resilience is largely overlooked in climate change and urban policies in the developing world. This study analyzed the role of urbanization and green infrastructure on urban surface temperatures in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, in sub-Saharan Africa. We use available geospatial data and techniques to spatially and temporally explore urbanization and land surface temperatures (LSTs) over 20 years. The effect of specific green infrastructure areas in the city on LSTs was also analyzed. Results show increased urbanization rates and increased temperature trends across time and space. But, LST in green infrastructure areas was indeed lower than adjacent impervious, urbanized areas. Seasonal phenological differences due to rainfall patterns, available planting space, and site limitations should be accounted for to maximize temperature reduction benefits. We discuss an approach on how study findings and urban and peri-urban agriculture and forestry are being used for policy uptake and formulation in the field of climate change, food security, and urbanization by the municipal government in this city in Burkina Faso.
Keywords: Urban agriculture; Urban forestry; Urban ecosystem services; Urban climate change policies; Urban heat island; Africa
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Elliott, J., Glotter, M., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Hatfield, J. L., Jones, J. W., et al. (2018). Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management. Agricultural Systems, 159, 275–281.
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Keywords: Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Seasonal prediction; Adaptation
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Elliott, J., Glotter, M., Best, N., Boote, K., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J., et al. (2013). Predicting agricultural impacts of large-scale drought: 2012 and the case for better modeling.
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Abstract: The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States and cast a harsh light on the need for better analytic tools and a comprehensive approach to predicting and preparing for the effects of extreme weather on agriculture. We present an example of a simulation-based forecast for the 2012 US maize growing season produced as part of a high-resolution multi-scale predictive mechanistic modeling study designed for decision support, risk management, and counterfactual analysis. We estimate national average yields of 7.507 t/ha for 2012, 24.6% below the expected value based on increasing trend yield alone, with an interval based on resampled forecasts errors stretching from 5.586 to 8.967 t/ha. On average, the median yield simulations deviate from NASS observations by 8.3% from 1979 to 2011.
Keywords: crop yields; seasonal forecasting; global gridded crop models; agriculture; drought; decision support
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Furman, C., Bartels, W. - L., & Bolson, J. (2019). Participation, Process and Partnerships: Climate Change and Long-term Stakeholder Engagement. Anthropology in Action, 25(3), 1–12.
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Abstract: As awareness of the potential threats posed by climate change increases, researchers and agricultural advisors are being called upon to determine the risks that different stakeholder groups will likely confront and to develop adaptive strategies. Yet, engaging with stakeholders takes time. It also requires a clear and detailed plan to ensure that research and outreach activities yield useful outputs. In this article, we focus on the role of anthropologists as researchers and conveners in stakeholder engagement and provide a generalised overview of a long-term engagement process proceeding in three stages: (1) fact-finding and relationship-building; (2) incubation and collaborative learning; and (3) informed engagement and broad dissemination. We conclude with a discussion of perspectives and challenges that were encountered during two engagement experiences in the south-eastern United States.
Keywords: agriculture; climate; engagement; methods; participation; stakeholder groups
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Griscom, B. W., Adams, J., Ellis, P. W., Houghton, R. A., Lomax, G., Miteva, D. A., et al. (2017). Natural climate solutions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 114(44), 11645–11650.
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Keywords: climate mitigation; forests; agriculture; wetlands; ecosystems
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Her, Y. G., Boote, K. J., Migliaccio, K. W., Fraisse, C., Letson, D., Mbuya, O., et al. (2017). Climate change impacts and adaptation in Florida's agriculture. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 235–267). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.
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Abstract: In this chapter, we describe Florida&#65533;s agriculture, the vulnerability of its crops and livestock to climate change and possible adaptation strategies. Much of Florida&#65533;s agricultural success is linked to its moderate climate, which allows vegetable and fruit crop production during the winter/spring season as well as the production of perennial crops such as citrus and sugarcane. In addition, there is a substantial livestock industry that uses the extensive perennial grasslands. While rising CO2 is generally beneficial to crop production but detrimental to nutritional quality, increase in temperature will cause mostly negative effects on yield. Florida&#65533;s agriculture faces additional challenges from climate change characterized by sea level rise and intensified extreme climate events, affecting land and irrigation water availability, livestock productivity and pest and disease pressure. New technologies and adaptation strategies are needed for sustainable agricultural production in Florida, including increased water and nutrient use efficiency in crops, crop and livestock breeding for heat stress, pest and disease resistance and reduced exposure of livestock to high temperature. Irrigation is a favored adaptation, but places an even greater burden or potential conflict between agriculture and community use of water resources.
Keywords: Florida's agriculture; Climate change; Crops; Fruits; Livestock; Sea level rise; Irrigation; Water resources; Elevated carbon dioxide; Increased air temperature; Rainfall change; Salt water intrusion; Salinity; Climate change adaptation; Cover crop; Conservation tillage; Sod-based rotation; Plastic mulch; Drought tolerant crops; Heat tolerant corps, Drought tolerant forage; Heat tolerant livestock; Livestock facility renovation; Livestock genomic selection; Mixed croplivestock systems; Decision support systems; Crop modeling
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Jones, J. W., Hansen, J. W., Royce, F. S., & Messina, C. D. (2000). Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 82, 169–184.
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Abstract: Climate variability leads to economic and food security risks throughout the world because of its major influences on agriculture. Accurate forecasts of climate 3-6 months ahead of time can potentially allow farmers and others in agriculture to make decisions to reduce unwanted impacts or take advantage of expected favorable climate. However, potential benefits of climate forecasts vary considerably because of many physical, biological, economic, social, and political factors. The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential economic value of climate forecasts for farm scale management decisions in one location in the Southeast USA (Tifton, GA; 31 degrees 23'N; 83 degrees 31'W) for comparison with previously-derived results for the Pampas region of Argentina. The same crops are grown in both regions but at different times of the year. First, the expected value of tailoring crop mix to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases for a typical farm in Tifton was estimated using crop models and historical daily weather data. Secondly, the potential values for adjusting management of maize (Zea maize L.) to different types of climate forecasts (perfect knowledge of (a) ENSO phase, (b) growing season rainfall categories, and (c) daily weather) were estimated for Tifton and Pergamino, Argentina (33 degrees 55'S; 60 degrees 33'W). Predicted benefits to the farm of adjusting crop mix to ENSO phase averaged from US$ 3 to 6 ha-1 over all years, depending on the farmer's initial wealth and aversion to risk. Values calculated for Argentina were US$ 9-15 for Pergamino and up to US$ 35 for other locations in the Pampas. Varying maize management by ENSO phase resulted in predicted forecast values of US$ 13 and 15 for Tifton and Pergamino, respectively. The potential value of perfect seasonal forecasts of rainfall tercile on maize profit was higher than for ENSO-based forecasts in both regions (by 28% in Tifton and 70% in Pergamino). Perfect knowledge of daily weather over the next season provided an upper limit on expected value of about US$ 190 ha-1 for both regions. Considering the large areas of field crop production in these regions, the estimated economic potential is very high. However, there are a number of challenges to realize these benefits. These challenges are generally related to the uncertainly of climate forecasts and to the complexities of agricultural systems.
Keywords: agriculture climatic zones weather forecasting climate change food security economic analysis decision making farms crops seasonal variation simulation models rain risk reduction crop management Georgia Argentina growth period risk B200 F120
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Kanter, D. R., Musumba, M., Wood, S. L. R., Palm, C., Antle, J., Balvanera, P., et al. (2018). Evaluating agricultural trade-offs in the age of sustainable development. Agricultural Systems, 163, 73–88.
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Keywords: Trade-off analysis; Agriculture; Sustainable development; Stakeholder engagement
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Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.  B., et al. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate change, 6(12).
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Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1&#8201;°C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify &#65533;method uncertainty&#65533; in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Keywords: Agriculture; Climate-change impacts
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Msowoya, K., Madani, K., Davtalab, R., Mirchi, A., & Lund, J. R. (2016). Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa. Water Resources Management, 30(14), 5299–5312.
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Keywords: Climate change; Maize; Corn; Rainfed agriculture; Food security; Malawi; Lilongwe District
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Nowakowski, A. J., Watling, J. I., Thompson, M. E., Brusch IV, G. A., Catenazzi, A., Whitfield, S. M., et al. (2018). Thermal biology mediates responses of amphibians and reptiles to habitat modification. Ecol Lett, 21(3), 345–355.
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Keywords: Agriculture; biodiversity; CTmax; ectotherm; fragmentation; global change; habitat loss; microclimate; phylogenetic signal; species traits
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Palm, C., Neill, C., Lefebvre, P., & Tully, K. (2017). Targeting Sustainable Intensification of Maize-Based Agriculture in East Africa. Tropical Conservation Science, 10, 194008291772067.
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Keywords: sustainable; intensification; agriculture; maize; Africa
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Powers, C., Stowell, R., Heemstra, J., Whitefield, E., Harrison, J., Schmidt, D., et al. (2018). Building Capacity within Extension to Address Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate. JOE, 56(1), 1FEA8.
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Abstract: The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate project was formed to build capacity among Extension professionals and other livestock advisors to address climate change issues. We offer a case study of how a small team can build national capacity for new topics. We used a coordinated multiregional approach to leverage national efforts applied to locally relevant climatology, production systems, and climate issues. Key insights on overcoming challenges centered on (a) engaging audiences with local, historical trends and agricultural impacts, (b) beginning with adaptation, rather than mitigation of climate change, and (c) providing strategies for effectively communicating science during controversy. Program participants found the project valuable and substantially increased their ability and motivation to apply climate science.
Keywords: climate change, livestock and poultry agriculture, train the trainer, educational methods, communication strategies
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Roncoli, C., Jost, C., Kirshen, P., Sanon, M., Ingram, K. T., Woodin, M., et al. (2009). From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa). Climatic Change, , 433–460.
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Abstract: This study compares responses to seasonal climate forecasts conducted by farmers of three agro-ecological zones of Burkina Faso, including some who had attended local level workshops and others who had not attended the workshops. While local inequalities and social tensions contributed to excluding some groups, about two-thirds of non-participants interviewed received the forecast from the participants or through various means deployed by the project. Interviews revealed that almost all those who received the forecasts by some mechanism (workshop or other) shared them with others. The data show that participants were more likely to understand the probabilistic aspect of the forecasts and their limitations, to use the information in making management decisions and by a wider range of responses. These differences are shown to be statistically significant. Farmers evaluated the forecasts as accurate and useful in terms of both material and non-material considerations. These findings support the hypothesis that participatory workshops can play a positive role in the provision of effective climate services to African rural producers. However, this role must be assessed in the context of local dynamics of power, which shape information flows and response options. Participation must also be understood beyond single events (such as workshops) and be grounded in sustained interaction and commitments among stakeholders. The conclusion of this study point to lessons learned and critical insights on the role of participation in climate-based decision support systems for rural African communities.
Keywords: Decision-Making Subsistence Farmers Potential Benefits Agriculture Information Prediction Responses Variability Zimbabwe Impacts
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Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P., et al. (2013). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 166–182.
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Abstract: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with mid-century climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations&#65533; resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.
Keywords: Agriculture; Food security; Climate change; Crop models; Economic models; Intercomparison; Uncertainty; Risk; Adaptation
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