Acevedo, M. A., Beaudrot, L., MeléndezAckerman, E. J., Tremblay, R. L., & Shefferson, R. (2020). Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte. J Ecol, 108(4), 1553–1564.
Abstract: The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year dataset on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios.
We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability) and/or rainfall.
The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches.
Synthesis. Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
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Alba, C., Fahey, C., & Flory, S. L. (2019). Global change stressors alter resources and shift plant interactions from facilitation to competition over time. Ecology, 100(12), e02859.
Abstract: Global change stressors such as drought and plant invasion can affect ecosystem structure and function via mediation of resource availability and plant competition outcomes. Yet, it remains uncertain how native plants respond to drought stress that co-occurs with potentially novel resource conditions created by a nonnative invader. Further, there is likely to be temporal variation in competition outcomes between native and nonnative plant species depending on which resources are most limiting at a given time. Interacting stressors coupled with temporal variation make it difficult to predict how global change will impact native plant communities. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a 5-yr factorial field experiment to quantify how simulated drought, plant invasion (by cogongrass, Imperata cylindrica), and these stressors combined, affected resource availability (soil moisture and light) and competition dynamics between the invader and native longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), a foundation species in southeast U.S. forests. Drought and invasion mediated the survival and performance of pine seedlings in temporally dynamic and unexpected ways. Drought and invasion alone each significantly reduced pine seedling survival. However, when the stressors occurred together, the invader offset drought stress for pine seedlings by maintaining high levels of soil moisture, humidity, and shade compared to uninvaded vegetation. This facilitative effect was pronounced for 2 yr, yet shifted to strong competitive exclusion as the invasion progressed and the limiting resource switched from soil moisture to light. After 3 yr, pine tree survival was low except for pines growing with uninvaded vegetation under ambient precipitation conditions. After 5 yr, pines experiencing a single stressor were taller and had greater height to diameter ratios than pines under no stress or both stressors. This outcome revealed a filtering effect where poorly performing trees were culled under stressful conditions, especially when pines were growing with the invader. Together, these results demonstrate that although drought and invasion suppressed a foundation tree species, the invader temporarily moderated stressful drought conditions, and at least some trees were able to survive despite increasingly strong competition. Such unpredictable effects of interacting global change stressors on native plant species highlight the need for additional long-term studies.
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Alvarez, S., Lupi, F., Solís, D., & Thomas, M. (2019). Valuing Provision Scenarios of Coastal Ecosystem Services: The Case of Boat Ramp Closures Due to Harmful Algae Blooms in Florida. Water, 11(6), 1250.
Abstract: Coastal ecosystems provide a diversity of services that contribute to social well-being. While human use and enjoyment of some of these services are captured (and measurable) by market transactions, most uses of these vital ecosystem services are not. Among these non-market ecosystem services, perhaps the most readily measurable is recreational use of waterways, particularly services related to recreational boating. Although recreational boating does not account for the total value of coastal ecosystems and the services they provide, recreational boating in Florida (FL) is an important cultural serviceA and a key component of the value of coastal ecosystem services. In 2017 there were close to 12 million registered recreational boats in the United States (US), and nearly 1 million of these were in FL [1]. These boaters enjoy the cultural services provided by clean waterways and healthy coastal ecosystems. Understanding the monetary value of these services can help coastal managers and policy-makers in their decision-making processes.
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Alves Martins, M. V., Hohenegger, J., Martinez-Colon, M., Frontalini, F., Bergamashi, S., Laut, L., et al. (2020). Ecological quality status of the NE sector of the Guanabara Bay (Brazil): A case of living benthic foraminiferal resilience. Mar Pollut Bull, 158.
Abstract: The ecological quality status of the NE region of the Guanabara Bay (SE Brazil), one of the most important Brazilian embayments, is evaluated. For this purpose, sediment samples from in the inner of the Guanabara Bay (GB) were collected and analyzed (grain-size, mineralogy, geochemistry and living foraminifera). In this study, it is hypothesized that the potentially toxic elements (PTEs) concentrations, in solution and associated with organic matter (OMPTEs, potential nutrient source), may represent two potential pathways to impact benthic foraminifers. A multiproxy approach applied to complex statistical analyses and ecological indexes shows that the study area is, in general, eutrophic (with high organic matter and low oxygen content), polluted by PTEs and oil. As a consequence, foraminifera are not abundant and their assemblages are poorly diversified and dominated by some stress-tolerant species (i.e., Ammonia tepida, Quinqueloculina seminula, Cribroelphidium excavatum). The results allow us to identify a set of species sensitive to eutrophication and OMPTEs. Factors such as the increase of organic matter contents and OMPTEs and, in particular of Zn, Cd and Pb, the oxygen depletion and the presence of oil, altogether contribute to a marked reduction in the abundance and diversity of foraminifera. Ammonia-Elphidium Index and the Foram Stress Index confirm that the NE zone of GB is, in general, "heavily polluted", with "poor ecological quality status" and experiences suboxic to anoxic conditions. In light of it, special attention from public authorities and policymakers is required in order to take immediate actions to enable its environmental recovery.
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Anandhi, A., & Blocksome, C. E. (2017). Developing adaptation strategies using an agroecosystem indicator: Variability in crop failure temperatures. Ecological Indicators, 76, 30–41.
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Anandhi, A., & Kannan, N. (2018). Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer. Journal of Hydrology, 557, 460–474.
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Anandhi, A., Douglas-Mankin, K. R., Srivastava, P., Aiken, R. M., Senay, G., Leung, L. R., et al. (2020). DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) Framework: Synthesis, Foundational Overview, and Expert Case Studies. Transactions of the ASABE, 63(3), 741–752.
Abstract: Land resources are central to understanding the relationship between humans and their environment. We broadly define land resources to include all the ecological resources of climate, water, soil, landforms, flora, and fauna and all the socioeconomic systems that interact with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses within some system boundary. Understanding the vulnerability of land resources to changes in land management or climate forcing is critical to developing sustainable land management strategies. Vulnerability assessments are complex, given the multiple uses of the assessments, the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem, limited understanding, the dynamic structure of vulnerability, scale issues, and problems with identifying effective vulnerability indicators. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments of land resources that combines the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency to describe interactions between society and the environment, and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess impacts of climate change. The DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. The DEVA framework includes seven steps: (1) definition of the target system (land resource), (2) description of internal characteristics of the target system (state), (3) description of target system vulnerability indicators (adaptive capacity, sensitivity), (4) description of stressor characteristics (drivers, pressures), (5) description of stressor vulnerability indicators (exposure), (6) description of target system response to stressors (impacts), and (7) description of modifications to target system or stressors (responses). In stating that they have applied the DEVA framework, analysts acknowledge that they (1) have considered the full breadth of each DEVA element, (2) have made conscious decisions to limit the scope and complexity of certain elements, and (3) can communicate both the rationale for these decisions and the impact of these decisions on the vulnerability assessment results and recommendations. The DEVA framework was refined during invited presentations and follow-up discussions at a series of special sessions with leading experts at two successive ASABE Annual International Meetings. Six case studies drawn from the sessions elaborate on the DEVA framework and provide examples of the key concepts. The DEVA framework gives engineers, planners, and analysts a flexible new approach to apply a broad array of useful tools for vulnerability assessment of land resource systems.
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Anandhi, A., Hutchinson, S., Harrington, J., Rahmani, V., Kirkham, M. B., & Rice, C. W. (2016). Changes in spatial and temporal trends in wet, dry, warm and cold spell length or duration indices in Kansas, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 36(12), 4085–4101.
Abstract: Extended periods with excessive or no rainfall or high or low temperatures have important implications on the water cycle, can stress ecosystems and can be detrimental to the economy of a region. These periods are generally studied using spell length indicators or duration indices (SDIs). Fourteen SDIs are calculated to study the changes in wet/dry/warm/cold spells using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature from 23 centennial weather stations spread across Kansas during four time periods (through 1920, 1921�1950, 1951�1980 and 1981�2009) and two temporal scales (annual and seasonal). Among the SDIs, 3 represent wet spells [wet spell length (WetSL); AvWetSL; MaxWetSL]; 3 for dry spells [dry spell length (DrySL); AvDrySL; MaxDrySL]; 4 for warm spells [warm spell length (WarmSL); average warm spell length (AvWarmSL); maximum warm spell length (MaxWarmSL); WarmSDI] and 4 are for cold spells [cold spell length (ColdSL); average cold spell length (AvColdSL); maximum cold spell length (MaxColdSL); ColdSDI]. In general, we observe that Kansas has 57�64 days year−1 in a wet spell; 302�309 days year−1 in a dry spell; ∼47 days year−1 in each warm and cold spells. The average length of a wet/dry spell is ∼1.5 days, while the warm/cold spells are for 2 days. The maximum length of a wet spell is ∼4.4 days, a dry spell is ∼35 days and warm/cold spells is ∼6 days. We found the number of wet days increasing annually. Interestingly, the warm days during winter are increasing with an overall decrease in the days in warm and cold spells across both temporal scales.
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Anderegg, W. R. L., Hicke, J. A., Fisher, R. A., Allen, C. D., Aukema, J., Bentz, B., et al. (2015). Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate. New Phytol, 208(3), 674–683.
Abstract: Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.
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Anderson, B. T., & Perez, R. C. (2015). ENSO and non-ENSO induced charging and discharging of the equatorial Pacific. Clim Dyn, 45(9-10), 2309–2327.
Abstract: It is well established that variations in extratropical North Pacific wind stress fields can influence the state of the tropical Pacific 12-15 months prior to the maturation of boreal winter El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. While most research has focused on accompanying variations in the North Pacific trade winds and underlying sea surface temperatures that subsequently shift equatorward via anomalous air-sea interactions-e.g. meridional mode dynamics-observational and numerical model analyses indicate empirical and dynamical links exist between these same trade-wind variations and concurrent changes in subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, which can also serve as a key initiator of ENSO events. This paper shows that within an observationally-constrained ocean reanalysis dataset this initiation mechanism-termed the trade-wind charging (TWC) mechanism-is induced by the second leading mode of boreal winter zonal wind stress variability over the tropical Pacific and operates separately from ENSO-induced recharge/discharge of the equatorial Pacific heat content. The paper then examines the characteristics and evolution of the ENSO and TWC modes. Results indicate that the oceanic evolution for both modes is consistent with wind stress induced vertically-integrated, meridional mass transport into and out of the equatorial Pacific-i.e. a charging and discharging of the equatorial Pacific-despite having distinctly different wind stress anomaly patterns. The process-based similarity between these two modes of tropical Pacific wind stress variability suggests that both can produce a charging/discharging of the equatorial Pacific, however one (the ENSO mode) represents part of the ENSO cycle itself and the other (the TWC mode) represents a separate forcing mechanism of that cycle.
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Ankersen, T., Pownall, B., & Menashe, A. (2020). Adaptation Action Areas in Florida: The State of Play. The Reporter: The Environmental and Land Use Law Section, XL(3), 1, 17–21.
Abstract: This article briefly describes the origins of the 2011 Adaptation Action Areas (AAA legislation.5We identify every local government that has amended its comprehensive plan to include AAA language and characterize it as either aspirational or operational - depending on whether spatially explicit boundaries have been drawn. We also seek to determine the dominant 'theme' behind the AAA language, based on its focus on the built environment, natural resources and social equity, and whether the AAA is a regulatory instrument, or is focused on implementing projects. We conclude that despite nearly 10 years of existence, the promise of AAA's as a policy planning tool has yet to be fully realized. We further conclude that given its implicit goal of priority setting, there is insufficient attention paid to social equity as a basis for creating and implementing AAA's. We caution that this analysis is based on readily available public information, and AAA planning is occurring that has yet to reach fruition. In addition, because the statute is likely not preemptive,7spatially explicit sub-jurisdictional adaptation planning may be occurring outside of the AAA framework.
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Arns, A., Wahl, T., Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P., et al. (2020). Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nat Commun, 11(1), 1918.
Abstract: We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
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Asseng, S., Cammarano, D., Basso, B., Chung, U., Alderman, P. D., Sonder, K., et al. (2017). Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures. Glob Change Biol, 23(6), 2464–2472.
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Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rotter, R. P., O'Leary, G. J., Fitzgerald, G. J., et al. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology, 25(1), 155–173.
Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
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Badylak, S., Phlips, E., Dix, N., Hart, J., Srifa, A., Haunert, D., et al. (2016). Phytoplankton dynamics in a subtropical tidal creek: influences of rainfall and water residence time on composition and biomass. Mar. Freshwater Res., 67(4), 466.
Abstract: Concerns about global climate change have heightened awareness of the role changing rainfall regimes play in altering plankton communities of coastal ecosystems. In this study spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton composition and biomass in a sub-tropical tidal creek in Florida were observed over three wet and dry seasons, which included the major storm year of 2005 and the drought year of 2006. Shifts in rainfall levels were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition and biomass, but the effects varied between the upper and lower reaches of the creek. The upper reach of the creek was fresh throughout the study period. The oligohaline to mesohaline lower creek alternated between fresh and marine species in response to shifts in salinity regimes. Blooms of the freshwater dinoflagellate Peridinium sp., small centric diatoms and nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria were common in the upper Ten Mile Creek during low rainfall years. The euryhaline marine dinoflagellate Akashiwo sanguinea and centric diatoms (e.g. Leptocylindrus minimus) were observed at bloom levels in the lower creek during low to average rainfall periods. The results are discussed within the context of how variability in rainfall influence water residence times, nutrient concentrations and salinity regimes, which in turn influence phytoplankton composition and biomass.
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Barreras, H. J., Barreras H Jr, Kelly, E. A., Kelly EA, Kumar, N., Kumar N, et al. (2019). Assessment of local and regional strategies to control bacteria levels at beaches with consideration of impacts from climate change. Mar Pollut Bull, 138, 249–259.
Abstract: The objective of this study was to evaluate relationships between local factors (beach geomorphology and management) and regional factors (infrastructure improvements and temperature changes) against levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Data were evaluated for 17 beaches located in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys), USA, including an assessment of sanitary infrastructure improvements using equivalent dwelling unit (EDU) connections. Results show that elevated FIB levels were associated with beach geomorphologies characterized by impeded flow and by beaches with lax management policies. The decrease in EDUs not connected coincided with a decrease in the fraction of days when bacteria levels were out of compliance. Multivariate factor analysis also identified beach management practices (presence of homeless and concession stands) as being associated with elevated FIB. Overall, results suggest that communities can utilize beach management strategies and infrastructure improvements to overcome the negative water quality impacts anticipated with climate change.
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Barrett, R. T. S., Hollister, R. D., Oberbauer, S. F., & Tweedie, C. E. (2015). Arctic plant responses to changing abiotic factors in northern Alaska. American Journal of Botany, 102(12), 2020–2031.
Abstract: PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Understanding the relationship between plants and changing abiotic factors is necessary to document and anticipate the impacts of climate change.
METHODS: We used data from long-term research sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, to investigate trends in abiotic factors (snow melt and freeze-up dates, air and soil temperature, thaw depth, and soil moisture) and their relationships with plant traits (inflorescence height, leaf length, reproductive effort, and reproductive phenology) over time.
KEY RESULTS: Several abiotic factors, including increasing air and soil temperatures, earlier snowmelt, delayed freeze-up, drier soils, and increasing thaw depths, showed nonsignificant tendencies over time that were consistent with the regional warming pattern observed in the Barrow area. Over the same period, plants showed consistent, although typically nonsignificant tendencies toward increasing inflorescence heights and reproductive efforts. Air and soil temperatures, measured as degree days, were consistently correlated with plant growth and reproductive effort. Reproductive effort was best predicted using abiotic conditions from the previous year. We also found that varying the base temperature used to calculate degree days changed the number of significant relationships between temperature and the trait: in general, reproductive phenologies in colder sites were better predicted using lower base temperatures, but the opposite held for those in warmer sites.
CONCLUSIONS: Plant response to changing abiotic factors is complex and varies by species, site, and trait; however, for six plant species, we have strong evidence that climate change will cause significant shifts in their growth and reproductive effort as the region continues to warm.
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Benevolenza, M. A., & DeRigne, L. A. (2019). The impact of climate change and natural disasters on vulnerable populations: A systematic review of literature. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 29(2), 266–281.
Abstract: Climate change is acknowledged as being a crucial determinant of public health. The United States is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters as a result of climate change activity, influencing the ways federal, state, and local governments are addressing the growing issue. Individuals who are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather, namely the poor, the elderly/disabled, children, prisoners, and substance abusers have experienced heightened levels of mental, emotional, and bodily stress due to natural disaster exposure. Researchers from a variety of disciplines, public health, social science, and environmental studies, in particular, are examining how natural disasters are impacting mental and physical health functioning while noting the demographic factors leaving certain groups more susceptible to harm. A systematic literature review was conducted on the past 12 years of research that examined natural disaster-related experiences and psychological and physiological health outcomes on populations who are more vulnerable to adverse weather impacts. It was found that the mental and physical health of marginalized populations during and after a natural disaster were elevated and/or exacerbated by circumstances pertaining to the weather event and the lack of disaster-response actions. It was also found that fostering social capital is a way to combat stressors in disadvantaged communities. It is imperative that clinicians and policy makers confront the issue of climate change and natural disasters, developing relief efforts and preventative measures to secure the well-being of underserved groups who may not have many resources at their disposal.
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Bousquet, J., Agache, I., Berger, U., Bergmann, K. - C., Besancenot, J. - P., Bousquet, P. J., et al. (2018). Differences in Reporting the Ragweed Pollen Season Using Google Trends across 15 Countries. Int Arch Allergy Immunol, 176, 181–188.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Google Trends (GT) searches trends of specific queries in Google, which potentially reflect the real-life epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. We compared GT terms related to ragweed pollen allergy in American and European Union countries with a known ragweed pollen season. Our aim was to assess seasonality and the terms needed to perform the GT searches and to compare these during the spring and summer pollen seasons. METHODS: We examined GT queries from January 1, 2011, to January 4, 2017. We included 15 countries with a known ragweed pollen season and used the standard 5-year GT graphs. We used the GT translation for all countries and the untranslated native terms for each country. RESULTS: The results of "pollen," "ragweed," and "allergy" searches differed between countries, but "ragweed" was clearly identified in 12 of the 15 countries. There was considerable heterogeneity of findings when the GT translation was used. For Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia, the GT translation was inappropriate. The country patterns of "pollen," "hay fever," and "allergy" differed in 8 of the 11 countries with identified "ragweed" queries during the spring and the summer, indicating that the perception of tree and grass pollen allergy differs from that of ragweed pollen. CONCLUSIONS: To investigate ragweed pollen allergy using GT, the term "ragweed" as a plant is required and the translation of "ragweed" in the native language needed.
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Breyer, B., Zipper, S. C., & Qiu, J. (2018). Sociohydrological Impacts of Water Conservation Under Anthropogenic Drought in Austin, TX (USA): SOCIOHYDRO IMPACTS OF WATER CONSERVATION. Water Resour. Res., 54(4), 3062–3080.
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