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Publications

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Abbas, G., Ahmad, S., Ahmad, A., Nasim, W., Fatima, Z., Hussain, S., et al. (2017). Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, 42–55.
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Keywords: Zea mays L.; CSM-CERES-Maize model; Sowing seasons; Sowing dates; Climate change; Thermal trends; Cultivar shift
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Abbott, B. W., Jones, J. B., Schuur, E. A. G., Chapin III, F. S., Bowden, W. B., Bret-Harte, M. S., et al. (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environ. Res. Lett., 11(3), 034014.
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Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Keywords: permafrost carbon; Arctic; boreal; wildfire; dissolved organic carbon; particulate organic carbon; coastal erosion
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Abbott, F. M. (2018). Intellectual Property Rights and Climate Change: Interpreting the TRIPS Agreement for Environmentally Sound Technologies. Journal of International Economic Law, 21(1), 233–236.
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Abdul-Aziz, O. I., & Al-Amin, S. (2016). Climate, land use and hydrologic sensitivities of stormwater quantity and quality in a complex coastal-urban watershed. Urban Water Journal, 13(3), 302–320.
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Abstract: We determined reference hydro-climatic and land use/cover sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the Miami River Basin of Florida by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model. Potential storm runoff in the complex coastal-urban basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall; with stronger responses in the drier early winter and wetter late summer months. Basin runoff and pollutant loads showed moderate sensitivities to the hydrologic and land cover parameters; imperviousness and roughness exhibited more dominant influence than slope. Sensitivity to potential changes in land use patterns was relatively low. The changes in runoff and pollutants under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The quantified sensitivities can be useful for appropriate management of stormwater quantity and quality in complex urban basins under a changing climate, land use/cover, and hydrology around the world.
Keywords: stormwater; sensitivity; climate; land use; hydrology; SWMM
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Abed-Elmdoust, A., Miri, M. - A., & Singh, A. (2016). Reorganization of river networks under changing spatiotemporal precipitation patterns: An optimal channel network approach. Water Resour. Res., 52(11), 8845–8860.
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Abichou, T., Kormi, T., Yuan, L., Johnson, T., & Francisco, E. (2015). Modeling the effects of vegetation on methane oxidation and emissions through soil landfill final covers across different climates. Waste Management, 36, 230–240.
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Abstract: Plant roots are reported to enhance the aeration of soil by creating secondary macropores which improve the diffusion of oxygen into soil as well as the supply of methane to bacteria. Therefore, methane oxidation can be improved considerably by the soil structuring processes of vegetation, along with the increase of organic biomass in the soil associated with plant roots. This study consisted of using a numerical model that combines flow of water and heat with gas transport and oxidation in soils, to simulate methane emission and oxidation through simulated vegetated and non-vegetated landfill covers under different climatic conditions. Different simulations were performed using different methane loading flux (5–200 g m&#8722;2 d&#8722;1) as the bottom boundary. The lowest modeled surface emissions were always obtained with vegetated soil covers for all simulated climates. The largest differences in simulated surface emissions between the vegetated and non-vegetated scenarios occur during the growing season. Higher average yearly percent oxidation was obtained in simulations with vegetated soil covers as compared to non-vegetated scenario. The modeled effects of vegetation on methane surface emissions and percent oxidation were attributed to two separate mechanisms: (1) increase in methane oxidation associated with the change of the physical properties of the upper vegetative layer and (2) increase in organic matter associated with vegetated soil layers. Finally, correlations between percent oxidation and methane loading into simulated vegetated and non-vegetated covers were proposed to allow decision makers to compare vegetated versus non-vegetated soil landfill covers. These results were obtained using a modeling study with several simplifying assumptions that do not capture the complexities of vegetated soils under field conditions.
Keywords: Vegetation; Methane oxidation; Landfill emissions; Percent oxidation; Final covers; Greenhouse gas emissions
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Abiy, A. Z., & Melesse, A. M. (2017). Evaluation of watershed scale changes in groundwater and soil moisture storage with the application of GRACE satellite imagery data. Catena, 153, 50–60.
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Keywords: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE); Groundwater storage; Soil moisture; Tana basin; Blue Nile River
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Acevedo, M. A., Beaudrot, L., MeléndezAckerman, E. J., Tremblay, R. L., & Shefferson, R. (2020). Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte. J Ecol, 108(4), 1553–1564.
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Abstract: The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year dataset on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multiple climate change scenarios. We compared 290 dynamic occupancy models in their ability to predict the colonization and extinction dynamics of a L. rupestris metapopulation. The model set predicted colonization-extinction dynamics as a function of asymmetric patch connectivity, moss area, elevation, temperature (minimum, maximum and variability) and/or rainfall. The best model predicted that local colonization increases with increasing asymmetric patch connectivity but decreases as minimum temperature and maximum temperature variability increase. The best model also predicted that local extinction increases with increasing variability in maximum temperature. Negative effects were more severe in smaller patches. Synthesis. Overall, our results demonstrate the role of asymmetric connectivity, climate and interactions with moss area as drivers of colonization and extinction dynamics. Moreover, our results suggest that asymmetrically dispersed epiphytes may struggle to persist under climate change because their limited connectivity may not be enough to counterbalance the negative effects of increasing mean or variability in temperature.
Keywords: biotic interactions; climate change; colonization; connectivity; epiphytes; extinction; Lepanthes rupestris; Puerto Rico
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Acevedo, M. A., Sefair, J. A., Smith, J. C., Reichert, B., Fletcher Jr, R. J., & Fuller, R. (2015). Conservation under uncertainty: optimal network protection strategies for worst-case disturbance events. J Appl Ecol, 52(6), 1588–1597.
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Abstract: Conservation goals are ideally set after a thorough understanding of potential threats; however, predicting future spatial patterns of threats, such as disturbance, remains challenging. Here, we develop a novel extension of network fortification-interdiction models (NFIM) that deals with uncertainty in future spatial patterns of disturbance by optimally selecting sites that will best mitigate a worst-case scenario for a given magnitude of disturbance. This approach uses information on between-patch movement probabilities and patch-specific survival, which can be estimated from mark-recapture data, to optimize life expectancy. Optimization occurs in three interrelated stages: protection, followed by disturbance and then assessment. We applied the modelling approach to two mark-recapture data sets: roseate terns Sterna dougallii in the north-eastern United States and the Everglade snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus in Florida. We contrasted the results to a more conventional approach of protecting sites that maximize connectivity (by minimizing the distances among protected sites) and a bi-objective model that maximizes connectivity and the number of individuals under protection. Protecting sites that best mitigate future worst-case disturbance scenarios consistently resulted in higher predicted life expectancies than protecting patches that minimize dispersal distance. Predicted life expectancy was similar between NFIM and the bi-objective model for the small roseate tern network, yet the NFIM predicted higher life expectancy than any of the scenarios in the bi-objective model in the snail kite network.Synthesis and applications. This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species. This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species.
Keywords: conservation planning; disturbance; life expectancy; movement; network fortification -interdiction; optimization; spatial networks; spatial prioritization; survival
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Acheampong, M., Ertem, F. C., Kappler, B., & Neubauer, P. (2017). In pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number 7: Will biofuels be reliable? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 927–937.
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Keywords: Biofuels; Synthetic biology; System biology; Sustainable development goals
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Adam,, Dzotsi,, Hoogenboom,, Traoré,, Porter,, Rattunde,, et al. (2018). Modelling varietal differences in response to phosphorus in West African sorghum. European Journal of Agronomy, 100, 35–43.
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Abstract: In West Africa’s highly weathered soils, plant-available soil-P levels determine sorghum performance and yield to a far greater extent than projected variability in climate. Despite local landrace varieties having excellent adaptation to the environment and a relatively stable yield, sorghum grain yield remains quite low, averaging less than 1&#8239;t&#8239;ha&#8722;1. Low P availability in West African soils has significant effects on crop development and growth with potential grain yield losses of more than 50%. Use of mechanistic models, which integrate physiological processes, could assist with understanding the differences in P-uptake among varieties and guide effective P management. Yet only few crop models include a soil-plant P model for simulating crop yield response to P management. A generic soil-plant P module was developed for crop models in the Cropping System Model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) but the module was adapted and tested only on two crops, groundnut and maize. The aim of the study was to adapt the soil-plant P module for sorghum and perform initial testing on highly weathered soils in West Africa. Data used in adapting and testing the soil-plant P model for sorghum consisted of in-season P concentrations and dry weights of stems, leaves and grain from four sorghum varieties covering a range of maturities and photoperiod sensitivities and grown in high-P and P-deficient soils at ICRISAT-Mali. Results showed that the coupled CERES-Sorghum &#8722; P module reasonably reproduced the vegetative and grain yield reductions experienced in the field experiments with an average RMSE of 1561 and 909&#8239;kg&#8239;ha&#8722;1 under high P conditions and 1168 and 466&#8239;kg&#8239;ha&#8722;1 under low P conditions, respectively. The simulations are in most cases within the observation error. We also confirmed that contrasting variety types differ in their P-uptake dynamics relative to above-ground growth change over time, and hence respond differently to available P.
Keywords: Soil-plant P model; Sorghum; Plant P-concentration; DSSAT; West african sudanian zone
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Adiku, S. G. K., Jones, J. W., Kumaga, F. K., & Tonyigah, A. (2009). Effects of crop rotation and fallow residue management on maize growth, yield, and soil carbon in a savannah-forest transition zone of Ghana. Journal of Agricultural Science, Wavelet Analysis of El-Nino Southern Oscillation (.
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Agar, J., Shivlani, M., Fleming, C., & Solís, D. (2019). Small-scale fishers' perceptions about the performance of seasonal closures in the commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Ocean & Coastal Management, 175, 33–42.
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Abstract: The targeting of spawning aggregations is one of the most significant pressures facing coral reef ecosystems. The use of seasonal closures has been advanced for protecting aggregating fisheries for which managers have limited information on the location and timing of their reproductive events; however, few studies have examined the performance of these types of closures. This study assesses the perceptions of 150 fishers regarding the performance of seasonal closures in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Our results show that most fishers perceived that seasonal closures are effective fishery management measures. Across the six seasonal closures examined, fishers reported that these closures protected spawning aggregations and, to a lesser degree, increased fish abundance. These measures, however, did not always improve fishers' livelihoods nor result in their support for the seasonal closures. The loss of resource and market access during periods of high consumer demand and overlapping seasonal closures were the main causes of financial distress.
Keywords: Puerto Rico; spawning aggregations; fisheries
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Agar, J., Shivlani, M., & Solis, D. (2017). The Commercial Trap Fishery in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico: an Economic, Social, and Technological Profile. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 37(4), 778–788.
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Ahmad, S., Abbas, G., Fatima, Z., Khan, R. J., Anjum, M. A., Ahmed, M., et al. (2017). Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan. J Agro Crop Sci, 203(5), 442–452.
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Keywords: anthesis date; Brassica napus L; climate change; CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model; cultivar shift; Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer; maturity date; warming trend
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Ahmed, M., Anchukaitis, K. J., Asrat, A., Borgaonkar, H. P., Braida, M., Buckley, B. M., et al. (2013). Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geosci, 6(5), 339–346.
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Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971-2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.
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Ahmed, S., Griffin, T., Cash, S. B., Han, W. - Y., Matyas, C., Long, C., et al. (2018). Global Climate Change, Ecological Stress, and Tea Production. In Han WY., Li X., & Ahammed G. (Eds.), Stress Physiology of Tea in the Face of Climate Change. Singapore: Springer.
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Abstract: Tea is the second most consumed beverage worldwide, and the production of tea is of economic importance in over 50 countries. As a woody perennial, tea plants are cultivated in production systems for numerous decades and thus experience the multiple decadal effects of climate change including influences on tea yields and quality. Changes in tea yields and quality can have notable impacts on the livelihoods of laborers and farmers as well as on regional economies more broadly. This chapter provides an overview on the effects of global climate change on tea production. We start with a review on global climate change trends that highlight robust multi-decadal warming and changes in extreme weather events that have increased. This review on climate change trends is followed with a synopsis of the major effects of climate change on agriculture broadly as well as on tea plants more specifically. We provide a review on tea ecophysiology and thresholds followed by a synthesis on the key abiotic and biotic stressors associated with climate change that impact tea plants including carbon dioxide concentrations, temperature, rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, wind, soil conditions and microorganisms, pests, and pathogens. This chapter ends with a discussion on socioeconomic implications of climate change in major tea-producing areas globally in order to highlight the need to better understand tea physiology in the context of climate change. Overall, the scientific literature and news reports highlight that climate change is already impacting tea systems and that expected climate changes can increase the likelihood of severe and irreversible impacts for tea production and associated livelihoods. Evidence-based adaptation and mitigation strategies through a community-based approach are called for toward a more sustainable tea sector.
Keywords: Abiotic stress; Environmental variation; Crop thresholds; Tea quality; Secondary metabolites
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Aiken, G. R., Spencer, R. G. M., Striegl, R. G., Schuster, P. F., & Raymond, P. A. (2014). Influences of glacier melt and permafrost thaw on the age of dissolved organic carbon in the Yukon River basin: DOC Age in the Yukon River Basin. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 28(5), 525–537.
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Abstract: Responses of near-surface permafrost and glacial ice to climate change are of particular significance for understanding long-term effects on global carbon cycling and carbon export by high-latitude northern rivers. Here we report 14C-dissolved organic carbon (DOC) values and dissolved organic matter optical data for the Yukon River, 15 tributaries of the Yukon River, glacial meltwater, and groundwater and soil water end-member sources draining to the Yukon River, with the goal of assessing mobilization of aged DOC within the watershed. Ancient DOC was associated with glacial meltwater and groundwater sources. In contrast, DOC from watersheds dominated by peat soils and underlain by permafrost was typically enriched in 14C indicating that degradation of ancient carbon stores is currently not occurring at large enough scales to quantitatively influence bulk DOC exports from those landscapes. On an annual basis, DOC exported was predominantly modern during the spring period throughout the Yukon River basin and became older through summer-fall and winter periods, suggesting that contributions of older DOC from soils, glacial meltwaters, and groundwater are significant during these months. Our data indicate that rapidly receding glaciers and increasing groundwater inputs will likely result in greater contributions of older DOC in the Yukon River and its tributaries in coming decades.
Keywords: dissolved organic matter; permafrost; glaciers; hydrology; Yukon River basin
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Ajaz Ahmed, M. A., Abd-Elrahman, A., Escobedo, F. J., Cropper Jr., W. P., Martin, T. A., & Timilsina, N. (2017). Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 199, 158–171.
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Keywords: Trade-offs; Ecosystem services; Drivers; Geographically weighted regression; Watershed; Ecoregion
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Akram, R., Turan, V., Wahid, A., Ijaz, M., Shahid, M. A., Kaleem, S., et al. (2018). Paddy Land Pollutants and Their Role in Climate Change. In Hashmi MZ, & Varma A (Eds.), Environmental Pollution of Paddy Soils (Vol. 53, pp. 113–124). Soil Biology. Cham: Springer.
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Abstract: Climate change is one of the biggest concerns because its potential impact on human life is severe. The contribution ratio of CH4, CO2, and N2O to global warming would be high even if their emission rates are small. Paddy lands may become polluted by the aggregation of several pollutants, i.e., organic and inorganic fertilizers; discharges from the quickly extending industrial territories; use of manure, and organic solid waste; and wastewater irrigation system. Paddy lands are considered to be a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through methanogenesis (a process of methane production), a microbial process that is strictly restricted to paddy fields. Overall 90% of rice land is at least temporarily flooded and produces GHGs at higher rates. The production of N2O in soils occurs during nitrification, denitrification, and microbiological processes. A positive relationship was found between the climate change and N fertilizer application with N2O emissions from paddy lands. The use of N fertilizer also stimulates and influences the CH4 emission flux between paddy land and atmosphere. The impact of biochar amendments on the CH4 emission expanded by 35.16–40.62% in paddy fields. It is of incredible concern worldwide that gaseous outflows from management of organic solid waste add to local and worldwide scale ecological procedures, for example, eutrophication, fermentation, and climate change. CH4 is generated from the disintegration of organic matter (OM) in anaerobic conditions by methanogens. Soil OM is the most well-known constraining element for methanogenesis in paddy fields. OM obtained from three primary sources: animal fertilizer, green manure, and crop deposits. The amendment of OM, for example, rice deposits and compost application, prompts expanding CH4 outflows because of anaerobic decay and results in climate change.
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