Abstract: We determined reference hydro-climatic and land use/cover sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the Miami River Basin of Florida by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model. Potential storm runoff in the complex coastal-urban basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall; with stronger responses in the drier early winter and wetter late summer months. Basin runoff and pollutant loads showed moderate sensitivities to the hydrologic and land cover parameters; imperviousness and roughness exhibited more dominant influence than slope. Sensitivity to potential changes in land use patterns was relatively low. The changes in runoff and pollutants under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The quantified sensitivities can be useful for appropriate management of stormwater quantity and quality in complex urban basins under a changing climate, land use/cover, and hydrology around the world.

Abstract: Plant roots are reported to enhance the aeration of soil by creating secondary macropores which improve the diffusion of oxygen into soil as well as the supply of methane to bacteria. Therefore, methane oxidation can be improved considerably by the soil structuring processes of vegetation, along with the increase of organic biomass in the soil associated with plant roots. This study consisted of using a numerical model that combines flow of water and heat with gas transport and oxidation in soils, to simulate methane emission and oxidation through simulated vegetated and non-vegetated landfill covers under different climatic conditions. Different simulations were performed using different methane loading flux (5–200 g m−2 d−1) as the bottom boundary. The lowest modeled surface emissions were always obtained with vegetated soil covers for all simulated climates. The largest differences in simulated surface emissions between the vegetated and non-vegetated scenarios occur during the growing season. Higher average yearly percent oxidation was obtained in simulations with vegetated soil covers as compared to non-vegetated scenario. The modeled effects of vegetation on methane surface emissions and percent oxidation were attributed to two separate mechanisms: (1) increase in methane oxidation associated with the change of the physical properties of the upper vegetative layer and (2) increase in organic matter associated with vegetated soil layers. Finally, correlations between percent oxidation and methane loading into simulated vegetated and non-vegetated covers were proposed to allow decision makers to compare vegetated versus non-vegetated soil landfill covers. These results were obtained using a modeling study with several simplifying assumptions that do not capture the complexities of vegetated soils under field conditions.

Abstract: Conservation goals are ideally set after a thorough understanding of potential threats; however, predicting future spatial patterns of threats, such as disturbance, remains challenging. Here, we develop a novel extension of network fortification-interdiction models (NFIM) that deals with uncertainty in future spatial patterns of disturbance by optimally selecting sites that will best mitigate a worst-case scenario for a given magnitude of disturbance. This approach uses information on between-patch movement probabilities and patch-specific survival, which can be estimated from mark-recapture data, to optimize life expectancy. Optimization occurs in three interrelated stages: protection, followed by disturbance and then assessment. We applied the modelling approach to two mark-recapture data sets: roseate terns Sterna dougallii in the north-eastern United States and the Everglade snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus in Florida. We contrasted the results to a more conventional approach of protecting sites that maximize connectivity (by minimizing the distances among protected sites) and a bi-objective model that maximizes connectivity and the number of individuals under protection. Protecting sites that best mitigate future worst-case disturbance scenarios consistently resulted in higher predicted life expectancies than protecting patches that minimize dispersal distance. Predicted life expectancy was similar between NFIM and the bi-objective model for the small roseate tern network, yet the NFIM predicted higher life expectancy than any of the scenarios in the bi-objective model in the snail kite network.Synthesis and applications. This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species.
This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species.

Abstract: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between AD 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period AD 1971-2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Abstract: Observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during uniform nonprecipitating stratocumulus cloud conditions for a 14-h period are used to examine cloud-top entrainment processes and parameterizations. The observations from a vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar provide estimates of vertical velocity variance and energy dissipation rate (EDR) terms in the parameterized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget of the entrainment zone. Hourly averages of the vertical velocity variance term in the TKE entrainment formulation correlated strongly (r = 0.72) with the dissipation rate term in the entrainment zone, with an increased correlation (r = 0.92) when accounting for the nighttime decoupling of the boundary layer. Independent estimates of entrainment rates were obtained from an inversion-height budget using the local time derivative and horizontal advection of cloud-top height together with large-scale vertical velocity at the boundary layer inversion from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis model. The mean entrainment rate from the inversion-height budget during the 14-h period was 0.74 +/- 0.15 cm s(-1) and was used to calculate bulk coefficients for entrainment parameterizations based on convective velocity scale w* and TKE budgets of the entrainment zone. The hourly values of entrainment rates calculated using these coefficients exhibited good agreement with those calculated from the inversion-height budget associated with substantial changes in surface buoyancy production and cloud-top radiative cooling. The results indicate a strong potential for making entrainment rate estimates directly from radar vertical velocity variance and the EDR measurements.

Abstract: Besides improving the understanding of the physics of the challenging problem of monsoon prediction, it is necessary to evaluate the efficiency of the input parameters used in models. Sea-surface temperature (SST) is the only oceanographic parameter applied in most of the monsoon forecasting models, which many times do not represent the heat energy available to the atmosphere. We studied the impacts of ocean mean temperature (OMT), representing the heat energy of the upper ocean, and SST on the all India summer monsoon rainfall through a statistical relation during 1993�2013 and found that OMT has a better link than SST.

Abstract: A spatially-explicit model (Hydro-MEM model) that couples astronomic tides and Spartina alterniflora dynamics was developed to examine the effects of sea-level rise on salt marsh productivity in northeast Florida. The hydrodynamic component of the model simulates the hydroperiod of the marsh surface driven by astronomic tides and the marsh platform topography, and demonstrates biophysical feedback that non-uniformly modifies marsh platform accretion, plant biomass, and water levels across the estuarine landscape, forming a complex geometry. The marsh platform accretes organic and inorganic matter depending on the sediment load and biomass density which are simulated by the ecological-marsh component (MEM) of the model and are functions of the hydroperiod. Two sea-level rise projections for the year 2050 were simulated: 11 cm (low) and 48 cm (high). Overall biomass density increased under the low sea-level rise scenario by 54% and declined under the high sea-level rise scenario by 21%. The biomass driven topographic and bottom friction parameter updates were assessed by demonstrating numerical convergence (the state where the difference between biomass densities for two different coupling time steps approaches a small number). The maximum coupling time steps for low and high sea-level rise cases were calculated to be 10 and 5 years, respectively. A comparison of the Hydro-MEM model with a parametric marsh equilibrium model (MEM) indicates improvement in terms of spatial pattern of biomass distribution due to the coupling and dynamic sea-level rise approaches. This integrated Hydro-MEM model provides an innovative method by which to assess the complex spatial dynamics of salt marsh grasses and predict the impacts of possible future sea level conditions.

Abstract: The objectives of this study were to compare average monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures of the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (AEMN) to those of geographically close (i.e., paired) manual observations from U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations and Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) stations for the period 2002-13, and to evaluate the extent to which differences in siting characteristics of paired AEMN-USHCN stations contribute to the temperature differences. Correlations for monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures of paired AEMN-USHCN and AEMN-COOP stations were high and almost always significant, although the correlations for seasonal minimum temperatures were slightly lower than those of maximum temperatures, especially for summer. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and seasonal maximum temperatures of paired AEMN-USHCN and AEMN-COOP stations were significantly different in only a few instances, while seasonal minimum temperatures were more often significantly different, particularly for summer. The stronger relationship between maximum temperatures than minimum temperatures for paired stations is logical given that minimum temperatures typically occur when a shallow, decoupled nocturnal boundary layer is more sensitive to local conditions [e.g., land use/land cover (LULC)]. Stepwise regressions confirmed that a portion of the variance of seasonal minimum temperatures of paired AEMN-USHCN stations was explained by differences in LULC, while the variance in seasonal maximum temperatures was explained better by differences in elevation. Despite the generally close relationships between temperatures of paired stations and a portion of the differences being explained, an abrupt change from manual networks to the AEMN without data adjustments would change the Georgia climate record on monthly and seasonal time scales.