Abstract: As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Abstract: We determined reference hydro-climatic and land use/cover sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the Miami River Basin of Florida by developing a dynamic rainfall-runoff model with the EPA Storm Water Management Model. Potential storm runoff in the complex coastal-urban basin exhibited high and notably different seasonal sensitivities to rainfall; with stronger responses in the drier early winter and wetter late summer months. Basin runoff and pollutant loads showed moderate sensitivities to the hydrologic and land cover parameters; imperviousness and roughness exhibited more dominant influence than slope. Sensitivity to potential changes in land use patterns was relatively low. The changes in runoff and pollutants under simultaneous hydro-climatic or climate-land use perturbations were notably different than the summations of their individual contributions. The quantified sensitivities can be useful for appropriate management of stormwater quantity and quality in complex urban basins under a changing climate, land use/cover, and hydrology around the world.

Abstract: Plant roots are reported to enhance the aeration of soil by creating secondary macropores which improve the diffusion of oxygen into soil as well as the supply of methane to bacteria. Therefore, methane oxidation can be improved considerably by the soil structuring processes of vegetation, along with the increase of organic biomass in the soil associated with plant roots. This study consisted of using a numerical model that combines flow of water and heat with gas transport and oxidation in soils, to simulate methane emission and oxidation through simulated vegetated and non-vegetated landfill covers under different climatic conditions. Different simulations were performed using different methane loading flux (5–200 g m−2 d−1) as the bottom boundary. The lowest modeled surface emissions were always obtained with vegetated soil covers for all simulated climates. The largest differences in simulated surface emissions between the vegetated and non-vegetated scenarios occur during the growing season. Higher average yearly percent oxidation was obtained in simulations with vegetated soil covers as compared to non-vegetated scenario. The modeled effects of vegetation on methane surface emissions and percent oxidation were attributed to two separate mechanisms: (1) increase in methane oxidation associated with the change of the physical properties of the upper vegetative layer and (2) increase in organic matter associated with vegetated soil layers. Finally, correlations between percent oxidation and methane loading into simulated vegetated and non-vegetated covers were proposed to allow decision makers to compare vegetated versus non-vegetated soil landfill covers. These results were obtained using a modeling study with several simplifying assumptions that do not capture the complexities of vegetated soils under field conditions.

Abstract: Conservation goals are ideally set after a thorough understanding of potential threats; however, predicting future spatial patterns of threats, such as disturbance, remains challenging. Here, we develop a novel extension of network fortification-interdiction models (NFIM) that deals with uncertainty in future spatial patterns of disturbance by optimally selecting sites that will best mitigate a worst-case scenario for a given magnitude of disturbance. This approach uses information on between-patch movement probabilities and patch-specific survival, which can be estimated from mark-recapture data, to optimize life expectancy. Optimization occurs in three interrelated stages: protection, followed by disturbance and then assessment. We applied the modelling approach to two mark-recapture data sets: roseate terns Sterna dougallii in the north-eastern United States and the Everglade snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus in Florida. We contrasted the results to a more conventional approach of protecting sites that maximize connectivity (by minimizing the distances among protected sites) and a bi-objective model that maximizes connectivity and the number of individuals under protection. Protecting sites that best mitigate future worst-case disturbance scenarios consistently resulted in higher predicted life expectancies than protecting patches that minimize dispersal distance. Predicted life expectancy was similar between NFIM and the bi-objective model for the small roseate tern network, yet the NFIM predicted higher life expectancy than any of the scenarios in the bi-objective model in the snail kite network.Synthesis and applications. This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species.
This application of interdiction models prescribed a combination of patches for protection that results in the least possible decrease in life expectancy. Our analyses of the snail kite and roseate tern networks suggest that managing to protect these prescribed patches by the network fortification -interdiction models (i.e. protecting against the worst-case disturbance scenario) is more beneficial than managing patches that minimize dispersal distance or maximize the number of individuals under protection if the conservation goal is to ensure the long-term persistence of a species.

Abstract: Responses of near-surface permafrost and glacial ice to climate change are of particular significance for understanding long-term effects on global carbon cycling and carbon export by high-latitude northern rivers. Here we report 14C-dissolved organic carbon (DOC) values and dissolved organic matter optical data for the Yukon River, 15 tributaries of the Yukon River, glacial meltwater, and groundwater and soil water end-member sources draining to the Yukon River, with the goal of assessing mobilization of aged DOC within the watershed. Ancient DOC was associated with glacial meltwater and groundwater sources. In contrast, DOC from watersheds dominated by peat soils and underlain by permafrost was typically enriched in 14C indicating that degradation of ancient carbon stores is currently not occurring at large enough scales to quantitatively influence bulk DOC exports from those landscapes. On an annual basis, DOC exported was predominantly modern during the spring period throughout the Yukon River basin and became older through summer-fall and winter periods, suggesting that contributions of older DOC from soils, glacial meltwaters, and groundwater are significant during these months. Our data indicate that rapidly receding glaciers and increasing groundwater inputs will likely result in greater contributions of older DOC in the Yukon River and its tributaries in coming decades.

Abstract: Observations made at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during uniform nonprecipitating stratocumulus cloud conditions for a 14-h period are used to examine cloud-top entrainment processes and parameterizations. The observations from a vertically pointing Doppler cloud radar provide estimates of vertical velocity variance and energy dissipation rate (EDR) terms in the parameterized turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget of the entrainment zone. Hourly averages of the vertical velocity variance term in the TKE entrainment formulation correlated strongly (r = 0.72) with the dissipation rate term in the entrainment zone, with an increased correlation (r = 0.92) when accounting for the nighttime decoupling of the boundary layer. Independent estimates of entrainment rates were obtained from an inversion-height budget using the local time derivative and horizontal advection of cloud-top height together with large-scale vertical velocity at the boundary layer inversion from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis model. The mean entrainment rate from the inversion-height budget during the 14-h period was 0.74 +/- 0.15 cm s(-1) and was used to calculate bulk coefficients for entrainment parameterizations based on convective velocity scale w* and TKE budgets of the entrainment zone. The hourly values of entrainment rates calculated using these coefficients exhibited good agreement with those calculated from the inversion-height budget associated with substantial changes in surface buoyancy production and cloud-top radiative cooling. The results indicate a strong potential for making entrainment rate estimates directly from radar vertical velocity variance and the EDR measurements.