Abstract: Florida has abundant and unique biological resources that are expected to be negatively affected by global climate change. Florida is at particularly high risk for climate change impacts because of its low topography, extensive coastline, and frequency of large storm events. Climate change is already making large sweeping changes to Florida's landscape, especially along the coasts. The drivers of this change are both physical and biological in nature. Changes in air and water temperature, freshwater availability, salt water intrusion, ocean acidification, natural disturbance regime shifts (e.g., fire, storms, flood), and loss of land area have already been observed in Florida. Florida's average air temperature has increased at a rate of 0.2 - 0.40C per century over the past 160 years and is expected to increase around another 50C by 2100. Rainfall in Florida has generally increased by 10% over the last 120 years, and more frequent heavy precipitation events are expected in the future. Both globally and in Florida, ocean pH has been lowered 0.1 unit since the pre-industrial period and another 0.3�0.5 pH unit drop is predicted by 2100. Many of Florida's disturbances regimes such as algae blooms, wildfires, hypoxia, storms, droughts and floods, diseases, pest outbreaks are already showing signs of change. Finally, Florida's sea level is currently rising at 1.8-2.4 mm per year and may rise by another meter by 2100. Florida's biodiversity is already responding to climate change through changes in physiology, distribution, phenology, and extinction risk. Physiological stress is being observed among marine species in reduced rates of calcification, photosynthesis, nitrogen fixation, and reproduction brought on by increased acidity. Northward movement is becoming more common as a result of temperature shifts. Unfortunately, for Florida, species movement brings increased risk for invasions by non-native species, like the Cuban treefrog. Sea turtle nesting and tree flowering dates are starting to shift earlier in time to keep pace with increasing temperatures in Florida. Climate change also brings elevated extinction risks for Florida's numerous endemic species and species of conservation concern. Maintaining species and ecosystem resiliency is critical to conserving Florida's biodiversity, and we recommend an active adaptive management framework to achieve this goal. The application of adaptive management demands that science take a leading role in management. As we outline here, the major scientific research needs are to improve predictive ecological models and their application; increase focus on general climate change impacts patterns and trends; improve the understanding of disturbance regimes and the interactions of climate drivers; and enhance monitoring programs that link to clear management actions. Resource management can take a leading role, especially in embracing an experimental and flexible approach. Support is also needed for managers to improve data management and infrastructure; embrace and work openly with uncertainity, engage in more climate change related public outreach; and reach out to other management agencies across political and bureaucratic boundaries. Management and science together need to promote the conservation of natural resources; reduce other anthropogenic threats to biodiversity; consider the use of assisted migration and other adaptation strategies; create migration corridors; and promote strategy development that is both creative and experimental. Fortunately, there are numerous agencies, institutions, and scientists in Florida who can facilitate both improved scientific research and management of climate change impacts on biodiversity. Federal programs such as the White House's Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the Department of Interior's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives are being implemented to enable holistic adaptive management across state borders. Within 8 | P a g e Florida, The Fish and Wildlife Commission, Water Management Districts, and Florida Oceans and Coastal Council should continue to work across county and habitat borders with Florida research scientists and non-profit organizations to promote active adaptive management approaches to protecting biodiversity. Numerous direct economic benefits are associated with conserving Florida�s natural resources, such as tourism, recreation, and fisheries. In addition, Florida�s biodiversity and natural systems provide significant ecosystem services that benefit all the citizens of Florida. To develop effective active adaptive management in Florida, several administrative challenges need to be addressed such as current interpretation of legislation, lack of funds, stakeholder conflict, self-serving behavior, and the pace of change. "The challenge to researchers is to shift their focus from discovery to the science of implementation, while managers and policy-makers must depart from their socio-political norms and institutional frameworks to embrace new thinking and effectively utilize the wealth of powerful new scientific tools for learning by doing" (Keith and others 2011). Structured and transparent decision making can unveil options for science and management to effectively address Florida's biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. The preservation of Florida's rich biodiversity is critical to maintaining the unique and unparalleled natural beauty of the state and the ecosystem services provided by these natural systems to the citizens of Florida.

Abstract: This document comprises the viewpoints of experts in Florida from diverse fields on climate scenarios of the future with a focus on potential impacts on the state of Florida. A general perception of climate change is associated with uncertainty that entails different viewpoints and an implied limited understanding of the impacts of climate change. This notion is amplified further when impacts of climate change are assessed locally over a region like Florida. It is the collective opinion of this group that we cannot wish away this uncertainty. The nature of the problem warrants a probabilistic projection although a deterministic answer to the impact of climate change is most desirable. In fact the uncertainty in our understanding and predictions of climate variations is a natural outcome of the increasingly complex observing and modeling methods we use to examine interactions between the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. It is shown that Florida represents a good example of a complex regional climate system, where relatively slow natural climate variations conflate or deflate the multiple sources of anthropogenic climate influences. Climate change in this document refers to all sources of anthropogenic influences, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, aerosols, and land cover and land use change. In fact assessing climate change over Florida is so complex that climate change occurring remotely may have a larger impact than the direct influence of climate change on Florida. However the basic fact irrespective of the source of these variations and change is that Florida, with its vast and growing coastal communities and changing and growing demography will make itself more vulnerable to weather and climate events. With anticipation of further rapid increase in GHG emissions, it is prudent to act now in applying the necessary regional climate information that we have to educate the public and implement adaptation and mitigation plans. Some of the most apparent impacts of climate change and variability for Florida are as follows: (i) Salt water intrusion from sea level rise is already becoming an issue for the freshwater demands of highly populated areas along the southeast coast, from the Florida Keys to Palm Beach. This issue may further worsen and become more widespread over time with climate change. (ii) The displacement of communities, destruction of infrastructure and terrestrial ecology, and increased prospects of damage from storm surge would be additional consequence of sea level rise. (iii) The likelihood of the change in the statistics of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity has a huge implication for the sustenance of coastal and inland communities in terms of damage to infrastructure and property, human mortality, and the modulation of the accumulated fresh water source in the summer, especially in South Florida. (iv) Remote impacts of any perceived climate change in the characteristics of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO; although none have been conclusively found so far) will have an implication on the seasonal climate variability over Florida, especially in winter and spring seasons. (v) Likewise remote impact of climate change over North Africa can have implications on dust transport across the Atlantic Ocean, which can change the air quality and health of Florida�s neighboring oceans. (vi) The uncertainty in the anticipated changes in Florida red tide (a harmful algal bloom) due to changes in ocean temperatures, long term variations of local scale terrestrial runoff can make the fishing industry and the human population vulnerable. (vii) Florida�s coastal reefs, which serve as a habitat for a variety of biota, are threatened by ocean acidification from increased levels of dissolved carbon dioxide. (viii) There is anticipation of inevitable future increases in the wealth of Florida coastal communities, which would lead to further infrastructure development that will make the coastal regions far more susceptible to even moderate (and unanticipated) changes in climate. It is recommended that, with existing climate information, effective climate scenarios could be developed in the near term that would be useful to plan and test sustainable strategies for adaptation and mitigation of climate-related vulnerabilities. Ongoing scientific research is bound to further improve our ability to understand and predict our climate system to meet the strident demands for accurate climate projection. In addition the growing and aging population of Florida would make this State more vulnerable to climate variations and change. The demand for energy and water will proportionately grow, while changes in land cover, air quality, coastal waters from urbanization, industrialization and agriculture will be inevitable. Although it is pointed out in this document that sea level rise is one of the main issues confronting Florida in terms of the immediate impact of climate change, we have not included a description of it in this document. This is because there are several reports that have recently been released on sea level rise. They are listed below for our interested readers: (i) Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern United States: Past, Present and Future (Mitchum 2011; available from http://coaps.fsu.edu/~mhannion/201108mitchum_sealevel.pdf) (ii) Past and projected trends in climate and sea level for South Florida (Obeysekera et al. 2011; available from http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/cci report_publicationversion_14jul11.pdf) (iii) IPCC workshop on sea level rise and ice sheet instabilities (Stocker et al. 2010; available from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supportingmaterial/SLW_WorkshopReport_kuala_lumpur.pdf) (iv) Thirsty for answers: Preparing for the water-related impacts of climate change in American cities (Dorfman et al. 2010; available from http://www.nrdc.org/water/thirstyforanswers.asp