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Author Anandhi, A.; Bentley, C.
Title Predicted 21st century climate variability in southeastern U.S. using downscaled CMIP5 and meta-analysis Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume 170 Issue Pages
Keywords Conceptual framework; Scenario development; Scenario funnel; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) datasets; Causal chains; Feedback loops; Climate change adaptation; Mitigation; Ecosystems functioning
Abstract Trends and variability of the climate in the southeastern United States, including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee was studied for an array of future scenarios in the 21st century. The region is a biodiversity hotspot affected by more billion-dollar disasters than any other region in the country. Assessing the impacts of climate change in southeastern United States is important and often requires knowledge of plausible future climate change (e.g. scenarios of temperature and precipitation change). Although several methods are available in literature to develop plausible scenarios of the changes, there exists a usability gap [gap between what scientists understand as useful information and what users recognize as usable]. A novel conceptual framework that represents the plausible future climate change scenarios in southeastern United States was developed using information from meta-analysis and outputs from similar to 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) [data analysis] in the form of scenario funnels (represent the plausible trajectories of changes in climate). The systematic literature review provided 33 values of precipitation changes from 15 studies and 35 for temperature changes from 14 studies. In general, the meta-analysis revealed, the precipitation changes observed ranged from -30 to + 35% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Fiftieth percentile of the GCMs predicts no precipitation change and an increase of 2.5 degrees C temperature in the region by 2099. Among the GCMs, 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between - 40% to 110% and temperature changes between - 2 degrees C to 6 degrees C by 2099. Finally, the usability of scenario information to stakeholders in various southeastern United States ecosystems and guidelines for developing causal chains and feedback loops with three levels of complexity were provided. They include utilizing the information from impact assessment studies, stakeholder's expertise and requirement as well as understanding the potential impacts in ecosystems (e.g. agroecosystems, coastal, wetland) by relating the structural components of an ecosystem, their interactions with each other, within and across ecosystems for improved management and sustainable use of their resources. These would improve understanding of ecosystem functioning for better management and sustainable use of resources. Although the methodology was demonstrated for southeastern United States, it could also be applicable to other regions of the world. However, the scenario funnels, potential impacts on ecosystems and causal chain/loops are subjective to the study region, availability of literature, the changes observed in the literature and data analyzed, the characteristics of the study region, the stakeholder and their requirement.
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Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0341-8162 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2173
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Author Basso,; Dumont,; Maestrini,; Shcherbak,; Robertson,; Porter,; Smith,; Paustian,; Grace,; Asseng,; Bassu,; Biernath,; Boote,; Cammarano,; De Sanctis,; Durand,; Ewert,; Gayler,; Hyndman,; Kent,; Martre,; Nendel,; Priesack,; Ripoche,; Ruane,; Sharp,; Thorburn,; Hatfield,; Jones,; Rosenzweig,
Title Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Agricultural & Environmental Letters - Research Letters Abbreviated Journal AEL
Volume 3 Issue 1 Pages 180026
Keywords AgMIP; Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project; SOC; soil organic carbon
Abstract A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.
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Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2471-9625 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2214
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Author Bassu, S.; Brisson, N.; Durand, J.-L.; Boote, K.; Lizaso, J.; Jones, J.W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Adam, M.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Conijn, S.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Gayler, S.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.; Hoek, S.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.; Kemanian, A.R.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.-H.; Kumar, N.S.; Makowski, D.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Pravia, M.V.; Sau, F.; Shcherbak, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Timlin, D.; Waha, K.
Title How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal Glob Change Biol
Volume 20 Issue 7 Pages 2301-2320
Keywords CO2; AgMIP; climate; maize; model intercomparison; simulation; temperature; uncertainty
Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly −0.5 Mg ha−1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 μmol mol−1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1354-1013 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 618
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Author Downes, S.M.; Farneti, R.; Uotila, P.; Griffies, S.M.; Marsland, S.J.; Bailey, D.; Behrens, E.; Bentsen, M.; Bi, D.; Biastoch, A.; Böning, C.; Bozec, A.; Canuto, V.M.; Chassignet, E.; Danabasoglu, G.; Danilov, S.; Diansky, N.; Drange, H.; Fogli, P.G.; Gusev, A.; Howard, A.; Ilicak, M.; Jung, T.; Kelley, M.; Large, W.G.; Leboissetier, A.; Long, M.; Lu, J.; Masina, S.; Mishra, A.; Navarra, A.; George Nurser, A.J.; Patara, L.; Samuels, B.L.; Sidorenko, D.; Spence, P.; Tsujino, H.; Wang, Q.; Yeager, S.G.
Title An assessment of Southern Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Ocean Modelling Abbreviated Journal Ocean Modelling
Volume 94 Issue Pages 67-94
Keywords Southern Ocean; CORE-II experiments; Water masses; Sea ice; Ocean model intercomparison
Abstract We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (19882007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50°S. Over the 19882007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1463-5003 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 740
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Author Martre, P.; Wallach, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.P.; Boote, K.J.; Ruane, A.C.; Thorburn, P.J.; Cammarano, D.; Hatfield, J.L.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Brisson, N.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.F.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O'leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; White, J.W.; Wolf, J.
Title Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Global Change Biology Abbreviated Journal Glob Change Biol
Volume 21 Issue 2 Pages 911-925
Keywords ecophysiological model; ensemble modeling; model intercomparison; process-based model; uncertainty; wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)
Abstract Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24�38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1354-1013 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 609
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Author Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Antle, J.; Elliott, J.; Ashfaq, M.; Chatta, A.A.; Ewert, F.; Folberth, C.; Hathie, I.; Havlik, P.; Hoogenboom, G.; Lotze-Campen, H.; MacCarthy, D.S.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Contreras, E.M.; Müller, C.; Perez-Dominguez, I.; Phillips, M.; Porter, C.; Raymundo, R.M.; Sands, R.D.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Valdivia, R.O.; Valin, H.; Wiebe, K.
Title Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Abbreviated Journal Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A
Volume 376 Issue 2119 Pages 20160455
Keywords Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP); climate change; 1.5 degrees C agricultural impacts; interdisciplinary; scales
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1364-503X ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1994
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