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Author Cohuo, S.; Macario-González, L.; Wagner, S.; Naumann, K.; Echeverría-Galindo, P.; Pérez, L.; Curtis, J.; Brenner, M.; Schwalb, A.
Title Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes Type Journal Article
Year 2020 Publication Biogeosciences Abbreviated Journal Biogeosciences
Volume 17 Issue 1 Pages 145-161
Keywords SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES; LOWLAND CENTRAL-AMERICA; LAGO PETEN ITZA; YUCATAN PENINSULA; RAIN-FOREST; DISTRIBUTION MODELS; LAKE; PLEISTOCENE; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY; GUATEMALA
Abstract We evaluated how ranges of four endemic and non-endemic aquatic ostracode species changed in response to long-term (glacial-interglacial cycles) and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We employed two complementary approaches, fossil records and species distribution models (SDMs). Fossil assemblages were obtained from sediment cores PI-1, PI-2, PI-6 and Peten-Itza 22-VIII-99 from the Peten Itza Scientific Drilling Project, Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala. To obtain a spatially resolved pattern of (past) species distribution, a down-scaling cascade is employed. SDMs were reconstructed for the last interglacial (similar to 120 ka), the last glacial maximum (similar to 22 ka) and the middle Holocene (similar to 6 ka). During glacial and interglacial cycles and marine isotope stages (MISs), modelled paleo-distributions and paleo-records show the nearly continuous presence of endemic and non-endemic species in the region, suggesting negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. During periods of abrupt ecological disruption such as Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), endemic species were resilient, remaining within their current areas of distribution. Non-endemic species, however, proved to be more sensitive. Modelled paleo-distributions suggest that the geographic range of non-endemic species changed, moving southward into Central America. Due to the uncer-tainties involved in the downscaling from the global numerical to the highly resolved regional geospatial statistical modelling, results can be seen as a benchmark for future studies using similar approaches. Given relatively moderate temperature decreases in Lake Peten Itza waters (similar to 5 degrees C) and the persistence of some aquatic ecosystems even during periods of severe drying in HS1, our data suggest (1) the existence of micro-refugia and/or (2) continuous interaction between central metapopulations and surrounding populations, enabling aquatic taxa to survive climate fluctuations in the northern Neotropical region.
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ISSN 1726-4189 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2384
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Author Evans, D.; Sagoo, N.; Renema, W.; Cotton, L.J.; Müller, W.; Todd, J.A.; Saraswati, P.K.; Stassen, P.; Ziegler, M.; Pearson, P.N.; Valdes, P.J.; Affek, H.P.
Title Eocene greenhouse climate revealed by coupled clumped isotope-Mg/Ca thermometry Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Abbreviated Journal Proc Natl Acad Sci USA
Volume 115 Issue 6 Pages 1174-1179
Keywords clumped isotope; Eocene; tropical sea-surface temperatures; polar amplification; seawater Mg/Ca
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ISSN 0027-8424 ISBN Medium
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Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1892
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Author Hodges, R.E.; Jagger, T.H.; Elsner, J.B.
Title The sun-hurricane connection: Diagnosing the solar impacts on hurricane frequency over the North Atlantic basin using a space-time model Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Natural Hazards Abbreviated Journal Nat Hazards
Volume 73 Issue 2 Pages 1063-1084
Keywords Sunspots; Hurricanes; North Atlantic Oscillation; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Sea-surface temperatures; Risk; Bayesian; Space–time model; Hexagon tessellation
Abstract The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space–time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866–2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space.
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Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0921-030X ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 566
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