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Author Cohuo, S.; Macario-González, L.; Wagner, S.; Naumann, K.; Echeverría-Galindo, P.; Pérez, L.; Curtis, J.; Brenner, M.; Schwalb, A.
Title Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes Type Journal Article
Year 2020 Publication Biogeosciences Abbreviated Journal Biogeosciences
Volume 17 Issue 1 Pages 145-161
Keywords SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES; LOWLAND CENTRAL-AMERICA; LAGO PETEN ITZA; YUCATAN PENINSULA; RAIN-FOREST; DISTRIBUTION MODELS; LAKE; PLEISTOCENE; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY; GUATEMALA
Abstract We evaluated how ranges of four endemic and non-endemic aquatic ostracode species changed in response to long-term (glacial-interglacial cycles) and abrupt climate fluctuations during the last 155 kyr in the northern Neotropical region. We employed two complementary approaches, fossil records and species distribution models (SDMs). Fossil assemblages were obtained from sediment cores PI-1, PI-2, PI-6 and Peten-Itza 22-VIII-99 from the Peten Itza Scientific Drilling Project, Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala. To obtain a spatially resolved pattern of (past) species distribution, a down-scaling cascade is employed. SDMs were reconstructed for the last interglacial (similar to 120 ka), the last glacial maximum (similar to 22 ka) and the middle Holocene (similar to 6 ka). During glacial and interglacial cycles and marine isotope stages (MISs), modelled paleo-distributions and paleo-records show the nearly continuous presence of endemic and non-endemic species in the region, suggesting negligible effects of long-term climate variations on aquatic niche stability. During periods of abrupt ecological disruption such as Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), endemic species were resilient, remaining within their current areas of distribution. Non-endemic species, however, proved to be more sensitive. Modelled paleo-distributions suggest that the geographic range of non-endemic species changed, moving southward into Central America. Due to the uncer-tainties involved in the downscaling from the global numerical to the highly resolved regional geospatial statistical modelling, results can be seen as a benchmark for future studies using similar approaches. Given relatively moderate temperature decreases in Lake Peten Itza waters (similar to 5 degrees C) and the persistence of some aquatic ecosystems even during periods of severe drying in HS1, our data suggest (1) the existence of micro-refugia and/or (2) continuous interaction between central metapopulations and surrounding populations, enabling aquatic taxa to survive climate fluctuations in the northern Neotropical region.
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ISSN 1726-4189 ISBN Medium
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Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2384
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Author Evans, D.; Sagoo, N.; Renema, W.; Cotton, L.J.; Müller, W.; Todd, J.A.; Saraswati, P.K.; Stassen, P.; Ziegler, M.; Pearson, P.N.; Valdes, P.J.; Affek, H.P.
Title Eocene greenhouse climate revealed by coupled clumped isotope-Mg/Ca thermometry Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Abbreviated Journal Proc Natl Acad Sci USA
Volume 115 Issue 6 Pages 1174-1179
Keywords clumped isotope; Eocene; tropical sea-surface temperatures; polar amplification; seawater Mg/Ca
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ISSN 0027-8424 ISBN Medium
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Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1892
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Author Fraza, E.; Elsner, J.B.
Title A climatological study of the effect of sea-surface temperature on North Atlantic hurricane intensification Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Physical Geography Abbreviated Journal Physical Geography
Volume 36 Issue 5 Pages 395-407
Keywords urricane intensification; tropical cyclone; hurricane; sea-surface temperature; North Atlantic
Abstract The climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986-2013 in 4 degrees by 4 degrees latitude-longitude grid cells. Independent monthly SST data over the same period are averaged in the same cells. After removing cells with cold water or fast moving hurricanes, the SST effect on intensification, at the climate scale, is quantified by regressing intensification onto SST while controlling for average intensity. The regression is performed using a generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function. The model shows a statistically significant relationship, with higher intensification values associated with higher SST values. On average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9,20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 degrees C increase in mean SST. A clustered region where the model underpredicts intensification is noted over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, perhaps related to the fresh water plume from the Orinoco River.
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ISSN 0272-3646 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1101
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Author Freeman, E.; Woodruff, S.D.; Worley, S.J.; Lubker, S.J.; Kent, E.C.; Angel, W.E.; Berry, D.I.; Brohan, P.; Eastman, R.; Gates, L.; Gloeden, W.; Ji, Z.; Lawrimore, J.; Rayner, N.A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Smith, S.R.
Title ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication International Journal of Climatology Abbreviated Journal Int. J. Climatol.
Volume 37 Issue 5 Pages 2211-2232
Keywords marine meteorological data; ship data; buoy data; sea-surface temperature; sea-level pressure; humidity; metadata; ocean
Abstract We highlight improvements to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in the latest Release 3.0 (R3.0; covering 1662�2014). ICOADS is the most widely used freely available collection of surface marine observations, providing data for the construction of gridded analyses of sea surface temperature, estimates of air�sea interaction and other meteorological variables. ICOADS observations are assimilated into all major atmospheric, oceanic and coupled reanalyses, further widening its impact. R3.0 therefore includes changes designed to enable effective exchange of information describing data quality between ICOADS, reanalysis centres, data set developers, scientists and the public. These user-driven innovations include the assignment of a unique identifier (UID) to each marine report � to enable tracing of observations, linking with reports and improved data sharing. Other revisions and extensions of the ICOADS' International Maritime Meteorological Archive common data format incorporate new near-surface oceanographic data elements and cloud parameters. Many new input data sources have been assembled, and updates and improvements to existing data sources, or removal of erroneous data, made. Coupled with enhanced �preliminary� monthly data and product extensions past 2014, R3.0 provides improved support of climate assessment and monitoring, reanalyses and near-real-time applications.
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ISSN 0899-8418 ISBN Medium
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Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1114
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Author Hodges, R.E.; Jagger, T.H.; Elsner, J.B.
Title The sun-hurricane connection: Diagnosing the solar impacts on hurricane frequency over the North Atlantic basin using a space-time model Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Natural Hazards Abbreviated Journal Nat Hazards
Volume 73 Issue 2 Pages 1063-1084
Keywords Sunspots; Hurricanes; North Atlantic Oscillation; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Sea-surface temperatures; Risk; Bayesian; Space–time model; Hexagon tessellation
Abstract The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space–time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866–2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space.
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Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0921-030X ISBN Medium
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Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 566
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Author Zhang, W.; Kirtman, B.
Title Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model Type Journal Article
Year 2019 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume 46 Issue 6 Pages 3387-3397
Keywords SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION; VARIABILITY; PREDICTION; CHINA; NOISE; LIMIT; PERSISTENCE; TRENDS; ROLES
Abstract Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air-sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state-of-the-art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics.
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ISSN 0094-8276 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2273
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