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Author Bilskie, M.V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, D.L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.
Title Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Earth's Future Abbreviated Journal Earth's Future
Volume 4 Issue 5 Pages 177-193
Keywords Sea Level Rise; Storm Surge; Hurricane; Climate Change; Land Use Land Cover; Geomorphology
Abstract This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (bathtub) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.
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Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2328-4277 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1134
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Author Hovenga, P.A.; Wang, D.; Medeiros, S.C.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.
Title The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to climate and land use land cover change Type Journal Article
Year 2016 Publication Earth's Future Abbreviated Journal Earth's Future
Volume 4 Issue 5 Pages 124-142
Keywords SWAT model; Apalachicola; Florida; climate change; land use land cover change; runoff; sediment load
Abstract The response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use land cover (LULC) change is evaluated. A hydrologic model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily runoff and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (2100) to understand how parameters respond over a seasonal time frame to changes in climate, LULC, and coupled climate/LULC. The Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator was used to downscale temperature and precipitation from three general circulation models, each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results indicate that climate change may induce seasonal shifts to both runoff and sediment loading. Changes in LULC showed that more sediment load was associated with increased agriculture and urban areas and decreased forested regions. A nonlinear response for both runoff and sediment loading was observed by coupling climate and LULC change, suggesting that both should be incorporated into hydrologic models when studying the future conditions. The outcomes from this research can be used to better guide management practices and mitigation strategies.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2328-4277 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 1133
Permanent link to this record