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Author Barreca, A.; Deschenes, O.; Guldi, M.
Title Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates Type Journal Article
Year 2018 Publication Demography Abbreviated Journal Demography
Volume 55 Issue 4 Pages 12691293
Keywords Birth rates; Birth seasonality; Fertility; Temperature
Abstract We estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. We find that days with a mean temperature above 80 degrees F cause a large decline in birth rates 8 to 10 months later. Unlike prior studies, we demonstrate that the initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months, implying that populations mitigate some of the fertility cost by shifting conception month. This shift helps explain the observed peak in late-summer births in the United States. We also present new evidence that hot weather most likely harms fertility via reproductive health as opposed to sexual activity. Historical evidence suggests that air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of high temperatures.
Address Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida, 4336 Scorpius Street, Orlando, FL, 32816-1400, USA
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0070-3370 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number FCI @ refbase @ Serial 2125
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