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August 17, 2017 (Source: UM/RSMAS) - Predicting the weather three to four weeks in advance is extremely challenging, yet many critical decisions affecting communities and economies must be made using this lead time. However, model forecasts available for the first time this week could help NOAA’s operational Climate Prediction Center (CPC) significantly improve its week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S.

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a two year project, led by University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science atmospheric scientist Ben Kirtman, that combines multiple global models from NOAA, NASA, Environment Canada, the Navy, and National Center for Atmospheric Research to produce once-a-week real-time experimental forecasts as well as a set of forecasts for past dates, called reforecasts, now available to both CPC and the research community.

“The multi-model reforecasts perfectly dovetail with the real-time forecasts so that you can perform a robust calibration and skill assessment,” said Ben Kirtman, lead of the SubX project team and University of Miami Rosenstiel School atmospheric scientist. “The research you do can immediately translate into potential improvements of an operational product, and that’s really exciting.”

UM/RSMAS News Release