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Trepanier, J. C., Needham, H. F., Elsner, J. B., & Jagger, T. H. (2015). Combining Surge and Wind Risk from Hurricanes Using a Copula Model: An Example from Galveston, Texas. The Professional Geographer, 67(1), 52–61.
Abstract: Consideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster response. Local risk of storm surge and strong winds from hurricanes affecting Galveston, Texas, is quantified using a bivariate copula model fit to observed data. The model uses a two-dimensional Archimedean copula. Parametric uncertainty (5th and 95th percentiles) is quantified using a Monte Carlo procedure. The annual probability of a hurricane producing winds of at least 50 ms−1 and a surge of at least 4 m is 1.7 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of (1.33, 1.78) percent. The methodology can be extended to include inland flooding and can be applied elsewhere with available information.