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Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rotter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., et al. (2015). Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate change, 5, 143–147.
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Abstract: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
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Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., et al. (2013). Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate change, .
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Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
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Atwood, T. B., Connolly, R. M., Ritchie, E. G., Lovelock, C. E., Heithaus, M. R., Hays, G. C., et al. (2015). Predators help protect carbon stocks in blue carbon ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 5(12), 1038–1045.
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Abstract: Predators continue to be harvested unsustainably throughout most of the Earth's ecosystems. Recent research demonstrates that the functional loss of predators could have far-reaching consequences on carbon cycling and, by implication, our ability to ameliorate climate change impacts. Yet the influence of predators on carbon accumulation and preservation in vegetated coastal habitats (that is, salt marshes, seagrass meadows and mangroves) is poorly understood, despite these being some of the Earth's most vulnerable and carbon-rich ecosystems. Here we discuss potential pathways by which trophic downgrading affects carbon capture, accumulation and preservation in vegetated coastal habitats. We identify an urgent need for further research on the influence of predators on carbon cycling in vegetated coastal habitats, and ultimately the role that these systems play in climate change mitigation. There is, however, sufficient evidence to suggest that intact predator populations are critical to maintaining or growing reserves of 'blue carbon' (carbon stored in coastal or marine ecosystems), and policy and management need to be improved to reflect these realities.
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Aubert, C., Brisset, E., Djamali, M., Sharifi, A., Ponel, P., Gambin, B., et al. (2017). Late glacial and early Holocene hydroclimate variability in northwest Iran (Talesh Mountains) inferred from chironomid and pollen analysis. J Paleolimnol, 58(2), 151–167.
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Keywords: Climate change; Seasonality; Paleohydrology; Irano-Touranian steppe; Lake Neor; Middle East
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Aumen, N. G., Havens, K. E., Best, G. R., & Berry, L. (2015). Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction. Environmental Management, 55(4), 741–748.
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Abstract: Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.
Keywords: Everglades; Climate change; Ecological response; Restoration
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Baco, A. R., Morgan, N., Roark, E. B., Silva, M., Shamberger, K. E. F., & Miller, K. (2017). Defying Dissolution: Discovery of Deep-Sea Scleractinian Coral Reefs in the North Pacific. Sci Rep, 7(1).
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Badylak, S., Phlips, E., Dix, N., Hart, J., Srifa, A., Haunert, D., et al. (2016). Phytoplankton dynamics in a subtropical tidal creek: influences of rainfall and water residence time on composition and biomass. Mar. Freshwater Res., 67(4), 466.
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Abstract: Concerns about global climate change have heightened awareness of the role changing rainfall regimes play in altering plankton communities of coastal ecosystems. In this study spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton composition and biomass in a sub-tropical tidal creek in Florida were observed over three wet and dry seasons, which included the major storm year of 2005 and the drought year of 2006. Shifts in rainfall levels were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition and biomass, but the effects varied between the upper and lower reaches of the creek. The upper reach of the creek was fresh throughout the study period. The oligohaline to mesohaline lower creek alternated between fresh and marine species in response to shifts in salinity regimes. Blooms of the freshwater dinoflagellate Peridinium sp., small centric diatoms and nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria were common in the upper Ten Mile Creek during low rainfall years. The euryhaline marine dinoflagellate Akashiwo sanguinea and centric diatoms (e.g. Leptocylindrus minimus) were observed at bloom levels in the lower creek during low to average rainfall periods. The results are discussed within the context of how variability in rainfall influence water residence times, nutrient concentrations and salinity regimes, which in turn influence phytoplankton composition and biomass.
Keywords: climate; cyanobacteria; diatoms; dinoflagellates; hydrology; nutrient load; St Lucie Estuary; Ten Mile Creek
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Bae, J., & Feiock, R. (2013). Forms of Government and Climate Change Policies in US Cities. Urban Studies, 50(4), 776–788.
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Abstract: It has long been believed that council-manager governments with professionally trained public managers are more efficiency oriented and insulated from political pressure than mayor-council governments. Despite the general acceptance of this conventional wisdom, empirical evidence to support the predicted differences in policy has been extremely hard to come by. Most studies have found no direct effect of form of government on expenditures or policy; the effect of local institutions has been indirect, working to amplify or reduce supplier or demander preferences. In contrast, this paper examines a unique dataset of sustainability efforts in governmental operations and the community, and reports evidence that forms of government are an important direct influence on the approach that communities take to sustainability. Council-manager government systems have a significant positive effect on efforts directed to governmental operations, but a negative effect on community efforts.
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Bai, K., Chang, N. - B., & Gao, W. (2016). Quantification of relative contribution of Antarctic ozone depletion to increased austral extratropical precipitation during 1979-2013. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121(4), 1459–1474.
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Abstract: Attributing the observed climate changes to relevant forcing factors is critical to predicting future climate change scenarios. Precipitation observations in the Southern Hemisphere indicate an apparent moistening pattern over the extratropics during the time period 1979 to 2013. To investigate the predominant forcing factor in triggering such an observed wetting climate pattern, precipitation responses to four climatic forcing factors, including Antarctic ozone, water vapor, sea surface temperature (SST), and carbon dioxide, were assessed quantitatively in sequence through an inductive approach. Coupled time-space patterns between the observed austral extratropical precipitation and each climatic forcing factor were firstly diagnosed by using the maximum covariance analysis (MCA). With the derived time series from each coupled MCA modes, statistical relationships were established between extratropical precipitation variations and each climatic forcing factor by using the extreme learning machine. Based on these established statistical relationships, sensitivity tests were conducted to estimate precipitation responses to each climatic forcing factor quantitatively. Quantified differential contribution with respect to those climatic forcing factors may explain why the observed austral extratropical moistening pattern is primarily driven by the Antarctic ozone depletion, while mildly modulated by the cooling effect of equatorial Pacific SST and the increased greenhouse gases, respectively.
Keywords: climate change; precipitation; ozone depletion; pattern recognition
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Baigorria, G. A., & Jones, J. W. (2010). GIST: A stochastic model for generating spatially and temporally correlated daily rainfall data. Journal of Climate, 23, 19.
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Baigorria, G. A., Chelliah, M., Mo, K. C., Romero, C. C., Jones, J. W., O'Brien, J. J., et al. (2010). Forecasting cotton yield in the southeastern United States using coupled global circulation models. Agronomy Journal, 102(1), 187–196.
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Abstract: We developed methods of forecasting cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. var. hirsutum) yields at a county level 3 mo before harvest for the states of Alabama and Georgia. Cotton yield historical records for 57 counties were obtained from NASS and detrended using a low-pass spectral filter. A Canonical Correlation Analysis regression-based model was annually recalibrated to incorporate the year-by-year accumulating data: (i) April–June (during vegetative growth) observed rainfall for the forecasting year, and (ii) July–September (during reproductive growth) global-scaled 2-m mean temperatures for years before the forecasting year, beginning with 1970. We produced two types of forecasts: short range and medium range. The short-range near-term yield forecast (just before initiating harvest in the region) used gridded assimilated observed 2-m mean temperatures obtained from the NCEP-NCAR CDAS Reanalysis data. The medium-range forecast (3 mo before harvest) used 2-m mean temperature retrospective forecasts from the operational NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Forecasts System coupled global circulation model. The short-range, near-term forecast performance was measured by leave-one-out cross-validation and retroactive validation, whereas medium-range forecast performance used the previous two methods plus a proposed coral-reef validation method. The agreement between short-range near-term forecast and actual cotton yield was statistically significant at the 0.05 level in 31 out of 57 counties. For 48% of these 31 counties, the agreements between medium-range forecasts and actual cotton yields were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. The goodness-of-fit index for those 15 counties was 0.51 and the RMSE ranged from 13 to 31% of the annual yield.
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Bailey, A. M., Ober, H. K., Sovie, A. R., & McCleery, R. A. (2017). Impact of land use and climate on the distribution of the endangered Florida bonneted bat. Journal of Mammalogy, 98(6), 1586–1593.
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Keywords: acoustics; Chiroptera; conservation; endangered species; Florida; occupancy
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Baker, A. C., Correa, A. M. S., & Cunning, R. (2017). Diversity, Distribution and Stability of Symbiodinium in Reef Corals of the Eastern Tropical Pacific. In Coral Reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (Vol. 8, pp. 405–420). Springer.
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Keywords: Symbiosis; Mutualism; Bleaching; Climate change; Microbial ecology
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Baker, A. R., Kanakidou, M., Altieri, K. E., Daskalakis, N., Okin, G. S., Myriokefalitakis, S., et al. (2017). Observation- and model-based estimates of particulate dry nitrogen deposition to the oceans. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17(13), 8189–8210.
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Baker-Austin, C., Trinanes, J., Gonzalez-Escalona, N., & Martinez-Urtaza, J. (2017). Non-Cholera Vibrios: The Microbial Barometer of Climate Change. Trends in Microbiology, 25(1), 76–84.
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Bakker, D. C. E., Pfeil, B., Landa, C. S., Metzl, N., O&amp, apos, et al. (2016). A multi-decade record of high-quality fCO(2) data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT). Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8(2), 383–413.
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Abstract: The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO(2) (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO(2) values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.6 million fCO(2) values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO(2) values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO(2) has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) “living data” publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014).Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here: doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.SOCATV3GRID.
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Bakun, A. (2017). Climate change and ocean deoxygenation within intensified surface-driven upwelling circulations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 375(2102), 20160327.
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Keywords: climate change; ocean deoxyfication; upwelling intensification; comparative approach; ocean eddies; sardines
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Balderacchi, M., Perego, A., Lazzari, G., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Acutis, M., Laini, A., et al. (2016). Avoiding social traps in the ecosystem stewardship: The Italian Fontanile lowland spring. Science of The Total Environment, 539, 526–535.
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Abstract: Fontanile is a Po Valley (Italy) quasi-natural lowland spring built in the middle age. This paper identifies options for the conservation of the Fontanile water dependent ecosystem, using scenarios and simulations, and exploring different policy options. Three modeling analysis have been performed: the first was carried out for estimating groundwater contamination and recharge from above, the second for evaluating the function of vegetative filter strip on the surface water quality and the last one for testing pesticide drift reduction due to the vegetative filter strip. Uncertainty characterization included climate change projections. Despite the nitrate concentration in water could favorite the eutrophication phenomena, this not occurs because of the low phosphate concentration in water and of the presence of arboreal shade. Therefore, the protection strategies must focus on sustaining desirable water quantity conditions. Water saving and conservation technologies that improve the agricultural productivity but reduce the Fontanile water flow and large buffer strips that have a limited efficacy due to the Fontanile hydrological settings can be judged as ecological traps. Inefficient irrigation systems, good agricultural practices, integrated pest management and arboreal filter strip can preserve the quality of those ecosystems. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Leaching; Irrigation; Pesticide; Nitrate; Climate change; Vegetative filter strip; Modeling
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Balling Jr., R. C., Kiany, M. S. K., & Roy, S. S. (2016). Anthropogenic signals in Iranian extreme temperature indices. Atmospheric Research, 169, 96–101.
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Abstract: We analyzed spatial and temporal patterns in temperature extremes from 31 stations located throughout Iran for the period 1961 to 2010. As with many other parts of the globe, we found that the number of days (a) with high maximum temperatures was rising, (b) with high minimum temperatures was rising, and (c) with low minimum temperatures was declining; all of these trends were statistically significant at the 0.05 level of confidence. Population records from 1956 to 2011 at the station locations allowed us to reveal that the rate of human population growth was positively related to the increase in the number of days with high maximum temperatures and negatively related to days with low maximum temperatures. Our research shows a number of identifiable anthropogenic signals in the temperature records from Iran, but unlike most other studies, the signals are stronger with indices related to maximum, not minimum, temperatures.
Keywords: Temperature extremes; Iran; Population; Weekly cycle
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Banks, N., Boute, A., Charnovitz, S., Hsu, S. - L., McCalla, S., Rivers, N., et al. (2013). International Trade and Investment Law and Carbon Management Technologies.
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Abstract: Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases will require the development of carbon management technologies that are not currently available or that are not currently cost-effective. While market mechanisms such as carbon pricing must play a central role in stimulating the development of these technologies, governmental policy aimed at fostering carbon management technologies and lowering their costs must also play a part. Both types of policies will form part of an optimal greenhouse gas control portfolio.
This article develops a framework of international trade and investment law insofar as they may affect carbon management technologies. While it is commonly perceived that international trade law and investment law usually constrains the development of environmental policy, the flipside is often ignored. In addition to discussing how carbon management policy might be constrained, this article also identifies opportunities within the framework of international trade and investment law in which carbon management technologies might be advanced or supported.
Keywords: carbon capture, international trade, international investment, carbon management, climate change
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