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Publications

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This database provides access to publications produced by Florida Climate Institute members and relevant to the FCI mission. To submit a publication for inclusion in this database, please email info@floridaclimateinstitute.org.

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Bourassa, M. A., Gille, S. T., Bitz, C., Carlson, D., Cerovecki, I., Clayson, C. A., et al. (2013). High-Latitude Ocean and Sea Ice Surface Fluxes: Challenges for Climate Research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94(3), 403–423.
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Abstract: Polar regions have great sensitivity to climate forcing; however, understanding of the physical processes coupling the atmosphere and ocean in these regions is relatively poor. Improving our knowledge of high-latitude surface fluxes will require close collaboration among meteorologists, oceanographers, ice physicists, and climatologists, and between observationalists and modelers, as well as new combinations of in situ measurements and satellite remote sensing. This article describes the deficiencies in our current state of knowledge about air�sea surface fluxes in high latitudes, the sensitivity of various high-latitude processes to changes in surface fluxes, and the scientific requirements for surface fluxes at high latitudes. We inventory the reasons, both logistical and physical, why existing flux products do not meet these requirements. Capturing an annual cycle in fluxes requires that instruments function through long periods of cold polar darkness, often far from support services, in situations subject to icing and extreme wave conditions. Furthermore, frequent cloud cover at high latitudes restricts the availability of surface and atmospheric data from visible and infrared (IR) wavelength satellite sensors. Recommendations are made for improving high-latitude fluxes, including 1) acquiring more in situ observations, 2) developing improved satellite-flux-observing capabilities, 3) making observations and flux products more accessible, and 4) encouraging flux intercomparisons.
Keywords: flux, white, climate, Arctic, Antarctic
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Golbahar, M., Srivastava, P., & Stefanova, L. (2012). The impact of climate change on rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves in Alabama. Regional Environmental Change, .
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Abstract: Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases are projected to cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water management infrastructures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary. This study was undertaken to assess expected changes in IDF curves from the current climate to the projected future climate. To provide future IDF curves, 3-hourly precipitation data simulated by six combinations of global and regional climate models were temporally downscaled using a stochastic method. Performance of the downscaling method was evaluated, and IDF curves were developed for the state of Alabama. The results of all six climate models suggest that the future precipitation patterns for Alabama are expected to veer toward less intense rainfalls for short duration events. However, for long duration events (i.e., >4 h), the results are not consistent across the models. Given a large uncertainty existed on projected rainfall intensity of these six climate models, developing an ensemble model as a result of incorporating all six climate models, performing an uncertainty analysis, and creating a probability based IDF curves could be proper solutions to diminish this uncertainty.
Keywords: Climate change; Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curve; Temporal downscaling; General Circulation Models (GCMs)
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Cammarano, D., Stefanova, L., Ortiz, B. V., Ramirez-Rodrigues, M., Asseng, S., Misra, V., et al. (2013). Evaluating the fidelity of downscaled climate data on simulated wheat and maize production in the southeastern US. Regional Environmental Change, .
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Abstract: Crop models are one of the most commonly used tools to assess the impact of climate variability and change on crop production. However, before the impact of projected climate changes on crop production can be addressed, a necessary first step is the assessment of the inherent uncertainty and limitations of the forcing data used in these crop models. In this paper, we evaluate the simulated crop production using separate crop models for maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) over six different locations in the Southeastern United States forced with multiple sources of actual and simulated weather data. The paper compares the crop production simulated by a crop model for maize and wheat during a historical period, using daily weather data from three sources: station observations, dynamically downscaled global reanalysis, and dynamically downscaled historical climate model simulations from two global circulation models (GCMs). The same regional climate model is used to downscale the global reanalysis and both global circulation models’ historical simulation. The average simulated yield derived from bias-corrected downscaled reanalysis or bias-corrected downscaled GCMs were, in most cases, not statistically different from observations. Statistical differences of the average yields, generated from observed or downscaled GCM weather, were found in some locations under rainfed and irrigated scenarios, and more frequently in winter (wheat) than in summer (maize). The inter-annual variance of simulated crop yield using GCM downscaled data was frequently overestimated, especially in summer. An analysis of the bias-corrected climate data showed that despite the agreement between the modeled and the observed means of temperatures, solar radiation, and precipitation, their intra-seasonal variances were often significantly different from observations. Therefore, due to this high intra-seasonal variability, a cautious approach is required when using climate model data for historical yield analysis and future climate change impact assessments.
Keywords: Crop simulation models; Climate variability; Global circulation models; Reanalysis; Wheat; Maize
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Devitt, T. J., Devitt, S. E. C., Hollingsworth, B. D., McGuire, J. A., & Moritz, C. (2013). Montane refugia predict population genetic structure in the Large-blotched Ensatina salamander. Mol Ecol, 22(6), 1650–1665.
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Abstract: Understanding the biotic consequences of Pleistocene range shifts and fragmentation remains a fundamental goal in historical biogeography and evolutionary biology. Here, we combine species distribution models (SDM) from the present and two late Quaternary time periods with multilocus genetic data (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites) to evaluate the effect of climate-induced habitat shifts on population genetic structure in the Large-blotched Ensatina (Ensatina eschscholtzii klauberi), a plethodontid salamander endemic to middle and high-elevation conifer forest in the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern California and northern Baja California. A composite SDM representing the range through time predicts two disjunct refugia, one in southern California encompassing the core of the species range and the other in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir of northern Baja California at the southern limit of the species range. Based on our spatial model, we would expect a pattern of high connectivity among populations within the northern refugium and, conversely, a pattern of isolation due to long-term persistence of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir population. Our genetic results are consistent with these predictions based on the hypothetical refugia in that (i) historical measures of population connectivity among stable areas are correlated with gene flow estimates; and (ii) there is strong geographical structure between separate refugia. These results provide evidence for the role of recent climatic change in shaping patterns of population persistence and connectivity within the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, an evolutionary hotspot.
Keywords: California Floristic Province; Ensatina; Holocene; last glacial maximum; paleomodelling; Pleistocene; refugia
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Gornish, S. E., Hamilton, J. A., Barberan, A., Benito, B. M., Binzer, A., DeMeester, J. E., et al. (2013). Interdisciplinary climate change collaborations are essential for early-career scientists. EOS, accepted.
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Abstract: Climate change research is an interdisciplinary field and understanding its social, political and environmental implications requires integration across fields of research where different tools may be used to address common concerns [Baerwald, 2010]. However, current academic training promotes specialization, which may hinder our ability to parse interactions between different scales of organization, limiting our ability to extrapolate to the multiple levels of organization critical for climate change research. A useful but underutilized solution to tackle this obstacle is to facilitate collaboration between scientists with different specializations [Root and Schneider, 2006]. This is particularly important for early career scientists where integration across subfields may influence the focus of research programs as they are established and will encourage a tradition of broad-scale interactions. One of the many advantages of interdisciplinary approaches is that it opens communication between complementary fields, filling knowledge gaps, and facilitating progression both within individual fields, and the broader field of climate change research [Ludwig et al., 2011]. Despite the clear benefit of interdisciplinary approaches [e.g. Williams et al. 2008], collaborations among scientists from the natural and social sciences are still relatively uncommon [Ceballos et al., 2010].
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