Role of low frequency sea surface temperature modes within a changing climate in modulating Atlantic hurricane activity - Florida Climate Institute

Contact Person: LaRow, Tim

Collaborators: Lydia Stefanova

Institutions: Florida State University

Funding Agency: US Department of Energy

Start: September 2010    End: August 2013

Status: Funded

Filed Under: Climate SciencesWater

Abstract: Abstract: The objective of this proposal is to determine the relative contribution to the projected Atlantic hurricane variability in the mid to late 21st century stemming from anthropogenic and from natural low frequency changes in sea surface temperatures based on the CMIP5 projections, using a numerical atmospheric model with demonstrated skill in reproducing the recent historical hurricane variability. In order to provide an estimate of the statistics of Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of the 21st century, we need to consider

  1. The changing background climate (that consists of a warming trend and high-frequency fluctuations, including the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (which may or may not itself experience a forced change)), and
  2. The uncertainty of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase at particular segments of the future period.